[P2P-F] the math of collapse

Fri Jan 21 17:36:46 CET 2011

thanks Sam,

I'd like you to join the current debate in p2p urbanism, to balance some
arguments, 'why should cities dabble in agriculture',

if you are not on:  "p2p-urbanism-world-atlas" <
p2p-urbanism-world-atlas at googlegroups.com>,

Michel

On Fri, Jan 21, 2011 at 8:21 PM, Samuel Rose <samuel.rose at gmail.com> wrote:

> On Wed, Jan 19, 2011 at 11:58 PM, Michel Bauwens
> <michelsub2004 at gmail.com> wrote:
> > The instability of large, complex societies is a predictable phenomenon,
> > according to a new mathematical model that explores the emergence of
> early
> > human societies via warfare. Capturing hundreds of years of human
> history,
> > the model reveals the dynamical nature of societies, which can be
> difficult
> > to uncover in archaeological data.
> >
>
>
> The article:
>
> http://escholarship.org/uc/item/5536t55r#page-1
>
>
> "Abstract:
> Warfare is commonly viewed as a driving force of the process of
> aggregation of initially
> independent villages into larger and more complex political units that
> started several thousand
> years ago and quickly lead to the appearance of chiefdoms, states, and
> empires. Here we
> build on extensions and generalizations of Carneiro’s (1970) argument
> to develop a spatially
> explicit agent-based model of the emergence of early complex societies
> via warfare. In our model
> polities are represented as hierarchically structured networks of
> villages whose size, power, and
> complexity change as a result of conquest, secession, internal
> reorganization (via promotion and
> linearization), and resource dynamics. A general prediction of our
> model is continuous stochastic
> cycling in which the growth of individual polities in size,
> wealth/power, and complexity is interrupted
> by their quick collapse. The model dynamics are mostly controlled by
> two parameters, one of
> which scales the relative advantage of wealthier polities in between
> and within-polity conflicts, and
> the other is the chief’s expected time in power. Our results
> demonstrate that the stability of large
> and complex polities is strongly promoted if the outcomes of the
> conflicts are mostly determined
> by the polities’ wealth/power, if there exist well-defined and
> accepted means of succession, and
> if control mechanisms are internally specialized."
>
>
>
> > Note: I'm reading collapse by jared diamond, which I found a very
> > disappointing book, not in terms of historical narrative, which is always
> > interesting, but in terms of  the very weak causal analysis .. you end up
> > with the feeling, yeah, some societies collapse, shit happens, and some
> > don't, but no discernible method or propositions to get us out of this
> mess
> > ..
> >
>
> Towards the end, Diamond discusses his ideas for how to avoid
> collapse. I think that at least the problems that he discusses from
> the historical surveys and narratives offers a suggestion:
>
> The problem of collapse in societies is a "situational" problem.
> Different conditions in different areas lead to societal collapse.
> But, there are recurring patterns we can look for. An example is the
> Viking unwillingness to adopt inuit food sources (seal, fish, etc) and
> techniques in Greenland, which could have kept them at least
> physically alive in perpetuity.  The lesson from Easter Island not to
> cut down all of your trees. The lesson from Rawanda that in certain
> conditions, when population outstrips food supply it can lead to
> really undesirable outcomes.
>
> My takeaway from "Collapse" is that we need foresight applied that can
> match local conditions, and mapping/exposing choices for people that
> will transition them away from the choices that lead to collapse.
>
>
> > Michel
> > --
> > P2P Foundation: http://p2pfoundation.net  -
> http://blog.p2pfoundation.net
> >
> > Connect: http://p2pfoundation.ning.com; Discuss:
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> >
> > Updates: http://del.icio.us/mbauwens; http://friendfeed.com/mbauwens;
> > http://twitter.com/mbauwens; http://www.facebook.com/mbauwens
> >
> > Think tank: http://www.asianforesightinstitute.org/index.php/eng/The-AFI
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > _______________________________________________
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> >
> >
>
>
>
> --
> --
> Sam Rose
> Future Forward Institute and Forward Foundation
> Tel:+1(517) 639-1552
> Cel: +1-(517)-974-6451
> skype: samuelrose
> email: samuel.rose at gmail.com
> http://forwardfound.org
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>
> "The universe is not required to be in perfect harmony with human
> ambition." - Carl Sagan
>
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-- 
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