thanks Sam,<br><br>I'd like you to join the current debate in p2p urbanism, to balance some arguments, 'why should cities dabble in agriculture',<br><br>if you are not on: "p2p-urbanism-world-atlas" <<a href="mailto:p2p-urbanism-world-atlas@googlegroups.com">p2p-urbanism-world-atlas@googlegroups.com</a>>, <br>
<br>Michel<br><br><div class="gmail_quote">On Fri, Jan 21, 2011 at 8:21 PM, Samuel Rose <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:samuel.rose@gmail.com">samuel.rose@gmail.com</a>></span> wrote:<br><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0pt 0.8ex; border-left: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding-left: 1ex;">
<div class="im">On Wed, Jan 19, 2011 at 11:58 PM, Michel Bauwens<br>
<<a href="mailto:michelsub2004@gmail.com">michelsub2004@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<br>
> The instability of large, complex societies is a predictable phenomenon,<br>
> according to a new mathematical model that explores the emergence of early<br>
> human societies via warfare. Capturing hundreds of years of human history,<br>
> the model reveals the dynamical nature of societies, which can be difficult<br>
> to uncover in archaeological data.<br>
><br>
<br>
<br>
</div>The article:<br>
<br>
<a href="http://escholarship.org/uc/item/5536t55r#page-1" target="_blank">http://escholarship.org/uc/item/5536t55r#page-1</a><br>
<br>
<br>
"Abstract:<br>
Warfare is commonly viewed as a driving force of the process of<br>
aggregation of initially<br>
independent villages into larger and more complex political units that<br>
started several thousand<br>
years ago and quickly lead to the appearance of chiefdoms, states, and<br>
empires. Here we<br>
build on extensions and generalizations of Carneiro’s (1970) argument<br>
to develop a spatially<br>
explicit agent-based model of the emergence of early complex societies<br>
via warfare. In our model<br>
polities are represented as hierarchically structured networks of<br>
villages whose size, power, and<br>
complexity change as a result of conquest, secession, internal<br>
reorganization (via promotion and<br>
linearization), and resource dynamics. A general prediction of our<br>
model is continuous stochastic<br>
cycling in which the growth of individual polities in size,<br>
wealth/power, and complexity is interrupted<br>
by their quick collapse. The model dynamics are mostly controlled by<br>
two parameters, one of<br>
which scales the relative advantage of wealthier polities in between<br>
and within-polity conflicts, and<br>
the other is the chief’s expected time in power. Our results<br>
demonstrate that the stability of large<br>
and complex polities is strongly promoted if the outcomes of the<br>
conflicts are mostly determined<br>
by the polities’ wealth/power, if there exist well-defined and<br>
accepted means of succession, and<br>
if control mechanisms are internally specialized."<br>
<div class="im"><br>
<br>
<br>
> Note: I'm reading collapse by jared diamond, which I found a very<br>
> disappointing book, not in terms of historical narrative, which is always<br>
> interesting, but in terms of the very weak causal analysis .. you end up<br>
> with the feeling, yeah, some societies collapse, shit happens, and some<br>
> don't, but no discernible method or propositions to get us out of this mess<br>
> ..<br>
><br>
<br>
</div>Towards the end, Diamond discusses his ideas for how to avoid<br>
collapse. I think that at least the problems that he discusses from<br>
the historical surveys and narratives offers a suggestion:<br>
<br>
The problem of collapse in societies is a "situational" problem.<br>
Different conditions in different areas lead to societal collapse.<br>
But, there are recurring patterns we can look for. An example is the<br>
Viking unwillingness to adopt inuit food sources (seal, fish, etc) and<br>
techniques in Greenland, which could have kept them at least<br>
physically alive in perpetuity. The lesson from Easter Island not to<br>
cut down all of your trees. The lesson from Rawanda that in certain<br>
conditions, when population outstrips food supply it can lead to<br>
really undesirable outcomes.<br>
<br>
My takeaway from "Collapse" is that we need foresight applied that can<br>
match local conditions, and mapping/exposing choices for people that<br>
will transition them away from the choices that lead to collapse.<br>
<div class="im"><br>
<br>
> Michel<br>
> --<br>
> P2P Foundation: <a href="http://p2pfoundation.net" target="_blank">http://p2pfoundation.net</a> - <a href="http://blog.p2pfoundation.net" target="_blank">http://blog.p2pfoundation.net</a><br>
><br>
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><br>
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><br>
> Think tank: <a href="http://www.asianforesightinstitute.org/index.php/eng/The-AFI" target="_blank">http://www.asianforesightinstitute.org/index.php/eng/The-AFI</a><br>
><br>
><br>
><br>
><br>
><br>
</div>> _______________________________________________<br>
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<br>
<br>
--<br>
--<br>
Sam Rose<br>
Future Forward Institute and Forward Foundation<br>
Tel:+1(517) 639-1552<br>
Cel: +1-(517)-974-6451<br>
skype: samuelrose<br>
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<br>
"The universe is not required to be in perfect harmony with human<br>
ambition." - Carl Sagan<br>
<br>
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</blockquote></div><br><br clear="all"><br>-- <br>P2P Foundation: <a href="http://p2pfoundation.net">http://p2pfoundation.net</a> - <a href="http://blog.p2pfoundation.net">http://blog.p2pfoundation.net</a> <br><br>Connect: <a href="http://p2pfoundation.ning.com">http://p2pfoundation.ning.com</a>; Discuss: <a href="http://listcultures.org/mailman/listinfo/p2presearch_listcultures.org">http://listcultures.org/mailman/listinfo/p2presearch_listcultures.org</a><br>
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<br>Think tank: <a href="http://www.asianforesightinstitute.org/index.php/eng/The-AFI">http://www.asianforesightinstitute.org/index.php/eng/The-AFI</a><br><br><br><br><br>