[P2P-F] the math of collapse

[Samuel Rose]

On Wed, Jan 19, 2011 at 11:58 PM, Michel Bauwens
<michelsub2004 at gmail.com> wrote:
> The instability of large, complex societies is a predictable phenomenon,
> according to a new mathematical model that explores the emergence of early
> human societies via warfare. Capturing hundreds of years of human history,
> the model reveals the dynamical nature of societies, which can be difficult
> to uncover in archaeological data.
>


The article:

http://escholarship.org/uc/item/5536t55r#page-1


"Abstract:
Warfare is commonly viewed as a driving force of the process of
aggregation of initially
independent villages into larger and more complex political units that
started several thousand
years ago and quickly lead to the appearance of chiefdoms, states, and
empires. Here we
build on extensions and generalizations of Carneiro’s (1970) argument
to develop a spatially
explicit agent-based model of the emergence of early complex societies
via warfare. In our model
polities are represented as hierarchically structured networks of
villages whose size, power, and
complexity change as a result of conquest, secession, internal
reorganization (via promotion and
linearization), and resource dynamics. A general prediction of our
model is continuous stochastic
cycling in which the growth of individual polities in size,
wealth/power, and complexity is interrupted
by their quick collapse. The model dynamics are mostly controlled by
two parameters, one of
which scales the relative advantage of wealthier polities in between
and within-polity conflicts, and
the other is the chief’s expected time in power. Our results
demonstrate that the stability of large
and complex polities is strongly promoted if the outcomes of the
conflicts are mostly determined
by the polities’ wealth/power, if there exist well-defined and
accepted means of succession, and
if control mechanisms are internally specialized."



> Note: I'm reading collapse by jared diamond, which I found a very
> disappointing book, not in terms of historical narrative, which is always
> interesting, but in terms of  the very weak causal analysis .. you end up
> with the feeling, yeah, some societies collapse, shit happens, and some
> don't, but no discernible method or propositions to get us out of this mess
> ..
>

Towards the end, Diamond discusses his ideas for how to avoid
collapse. I think that at least the problems that he discusses from
the historical surveys and narratives offers a suggestion:

The problem of collapse in societies is a "situational" problem.
Different conditions in different areas lead to societal collapse.
But, there are recurring patterns we can look for. An example is the
Viking unwillingness to adopt inuit food sources (seal, fish, etc) and
techniques in Greenland, which could have kept them at least
physically alive in perpetuity.  The lesson from Easter Island not to
cut down all of your trees. The lesson from Rawanda that in certain
conditions, when population outstrips food supply it can lead to
really undesirable outcomes.

My takeaway from "Collapse" is that we need foresight applied that can
match local conditions, and mapping/exposing choices for people that
will transition them away from the choices that lead to collapse.


> Michel
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Sam Rose
Future Forward Institute and Forward Foundation
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