[P2P-F] the math of collapse

Tue Jan 25 03:43:56 CET 2011

On Fri, Jan 21, 2011 at 11:36 AM, Michel Bauwens
<michelsub2004 at gmail.com> wrote:
> thanks Sam,
>
> I'd like you to join the current debate in p2p urbanism, to balance some
> arguments, 'why should cities dabble in agriculture',
>
> if you are not on:  "p2p-urbanism-world-atlas"
> <p2p-urbanism-world-atlas at googlegroups.com>,
>
> Michel
>

I've joined.

Cities should dabble in agriculture for sure. Although an immediate
opportunity is also the agronomists that are usually within around
20-150 Km of the city itself

> On Fri, Jan 21, 2011 at 8:21 PM, Samuel Rose <samuel.rose at gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>> On Wed, Jan 19, 2011 at 11:58 PM, Michel Bauwens
>> <michelsub2004 at gmail.com> wrote:
>> > The instability of large, complex societies is a predictable phenomenon,
>> > according to a new mathematical model that explores the emergence of
>> > early
>> > human societies via warfare. Capturing hundreds of years of human
>> > history,
>> > the model reveals the dynamical nature of societies, which can be
>> > difficult
>> > to uncover in archaeological data.
>> >
>>
>>
>> The article:
>>
>> http://escholarship.org/uc/item/5536t55r#page-1
>>
>>
>> "Abstract:
>> Warfare is commonly viewed as a driving force of the process of
>> aggregation of initially
>> independent villages into larger and more complex political units that
>> started several thousand
>> years ago and quickly lead to the appearance of chiefdoms, states, and
>> empires. Here we
>> build on extensions and generalizations of Carneiro’s (1970) argument
>> to develop a spatially
>> explicit agent-based model of the emergence of early complex societies
>> via warfare. In our model
>> polities are represented as hierarchically structured networks of
>> villages whose size, power, and
>> complexity change as a result of conquest, secession, internal
>> reorganization (via promotion and
>> linearization), and resource dynamics. A general prediction of our
>> model is continuous stochastic
>> cycling in which the growth of individual polities in size,
>> wealth/power, and complexity is interrupted
>> by their quick collapse. The model dynamics are mostly controlled by
>> two parameters, one of
>> which scales the relative advantage of wealthier polities in between
>> and within-polity conflicts, and
>> the other is the chief’s expected time in power. Our results
>> demonstrate that the stability of large
>> and complex polities is strongly promoted if the outcomes of the
>> conflicts are mostly determined
>> by the polities’ wealth/power, if there exist well-defined and
>> accepted means of succession, and
>> if control mechanisms are internally specialized."
>>
>>
>>
>> > Note: I'm reading collapse by jared diamond, which I found a very
>> > disappointing book, not in terms of historical narrative, which is
>> > always
>> > interesting, but in terms of  the very weak causal analysis .. you end
>> > up
>> > with the feeling, yeah, some societies collapse, shit happens, and some
>> > don't, but no discernible method or propositions to get us out of this
>> > mess
>> > ..
>> >
>>
>> Towards the end, Diamond discusses his ideas for how to avoid
>> collapse. I think that at least the problems that he discusses from
>> the historical surveys and narratives offers a suggestion:
>>
>> The problem of collapse in societies is a "situational" problem.
>> Different conditions in different areas lead to societal collapse.
>> But, there are recurring patterns we can look for. An example is the
>> Viking unwillingness to adopt inuit food sources (seal, fish, etc) and
>> techniques in Greenland, which could have kept them at least
>> physically alive in perpetuity.  The lesson from Easter Island not to
>> cut down all of your trees. The lesson from Rawanda that in certain
>> conditions, when population outstrips food supply it can lead to
>> really undesirable outcomes.
>>
>> My takeaway from "Collapse" is that we need foresight applied that can
>> match local conditions, and mapping/exposing choices for people that
>> will transition them away from the choices that lead to collapse.
>>
>>
>> > Michel
>> > --
>> > P2P Foundation: http://p2pfoundation.net  -
>> > http://blog.p2pfoundation.net
>> >
>> > Connect: http://p2pfoundation.ning.com; Discuss:
>> > http://listcultures.org/mailman/listinfo/p2presearch_listcultures.org
>> >
>> > Updates: http://del.icio.us/mbauwens; http://friendfeed.com/mbauwens;
>> > http://twitter.com/mbauwens; http://www.facebook.com/mbauwens
>> >
>> > Think tank: http://www.asianforesightinstitute.org/index.php/eng/The-AFI
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> > _______________________________________________
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>> >
>> >
>>
>>
>>
>> --
>> --
>> Sam Rose
>> Future Forward Institute and Forward Foundation
>> Tel:+1(517) 639-1552
>> Cel: +1-(517)-974-6451
>> skype: samuelrose
>> email: samuel.rose at gmail.com
>> http://forwardfound.org
>> http://futureforwardinstitute.org
>> http://hollymeadcapital.com
>> http://p2pfoundation.net
>> http://socialmediaclassroom.com
>>
>> "The universe is not required to be in perfect harmony with human
>> ambition." - Carl Sagan
>>
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>
>
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>
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>
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> Think tank: http://www.asianforesightinstitute.org/index.php/eng/The-AFI
>
>
>
>
>
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-- 
--
Sam Rose
Future Forward Institute and Forward Foundation
Tel:+1(517) 639-1552
Cel: +1-(517)-974-6451
skype: samuelrose
email: samuel.rose at gmail.com
http://forwardfound.org
http://futureforwardinstitute.org
http://hollymeadcapital.com
http://p2pfoundation.net
http://socialmediaclassroom.com

"The universe is not required to be in perfect harmony with human
ambition." - Carl Sagan