[P2P-F] Ecological and economic limits and overshoot

Thu Sep 15 16:10:14 CEST 2011

thanks Sam,

if you ever see timelines on this, thanks for letting me and ben know,

On Thu, Sep 15, 2011 at 9:07 PM, Samuel Rose <samuel.rose at gmail.com> wrote:

> Michel, yes I thought 2030 was plausible. (stop reading this now if
> you are easily depressed). Now, I think we could see problems in even
> *less* time than that. We could see the West Antarctic Ice Sheet
> suddenly slide into the ocean, which would raise sea levels very
> quickly. Or, we could see as little as a decade long release of
> giga-tons of methane gas from the ocean floor. 55 million years ago,
> just such an event happened, according to paleoclimatologists, and it
> caused a temperature spike of 8 degrees celsius, killing 2/3 of ocean
> species. Ice ages also show evidence of rapid climate shift (even as
> little as 3 years).
>
> On top of that, we can see that we are now down to about 10% of world
> fisheries
> http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2003/05/0515_030515_fishdecline.html
> ,
>
> 10% of rainforests. (next year we are projected to cross the threshold
> of 10% of rainforests and 50% of species that some believe rainforest
> ecologies can bounce back from on their own
> http://www.rainforests.net/variables.htm )
>
> And, we are using 1 and one half of the total capacity of the earth to
> replenish itself! We have *already* exceeded the limits of growth.
> http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/GFN/page/world_footprint/
>
> Plus, I think it is clear that on a worldwide bio-psyhco-social level,
> we are already seeing many areas slide into control paradigms (most
> remarkably right here in the West), while we're also seeing people
> coordinate to topple old control regimes, or broken bureaucracies.
>
> What this all means to me is that we are already in serious, serious
> trouble. Yet, as we discussed in work in Future Forward Institute, and
> as we've explored here in P2P Foundation for a number of years, there
> is also plenty that is emerging as adaptation to these changes
>
> On Wed, Sep 14, 2011 at 6:03 AM, Michel Bauwens
> <michel at p2pfoundation.net> wrote:
> > thanks for helping Ben, in cc, with this important question:
> >
> > < first question: Is it possible, or do you know of resources and data I
> can
> > look at, to maintain the exponential growth the economic structures
> require?
> > Id appreciate any other reflections or ideas you have about how this
> > relatively short-term scenario could possibly play out. >
> >
> > part of my own answer is below with recommended resources
> >
> > Ben, see
> >
> http://blog.p2pfoundation.net/p2p-practices-as-condition-for-the-next-long-wave/2011/01/14
> >
> > In this paper, I draw on Kondratieff wave theory and Carlota Perez to
> > describe the near and longer future scenario,
> >
> > basically:
> >
> > Sudden system shock makes previous system inoperable
> >
> > 15 years of crisis, deleveraging of debt, etc ....
> >
> > New wave based on new principles, which could/should include substantive
> p2p
> > practices
> >
> > However, the underlying biospheric and civilisational crisis may very
> well
> > complicate things substantially, this may very well be the last wave of
> > capitalism
> >
> > Sam, I remember you place the congruence of ecological crisis in 2030, do
> > you have any sources on that?
> >
> > Michel
> >
> > ---------- Forwarded message ----------
> > From: Michel Bauwens <michel at p2pfoundation.net>
> > Date: Wed, Sep 14, 2011 at 4:57 PM
> > Subject: Re: Student Paper
> > To: ben zand <benzand57 at gmail.com>
> >
> >
> > Dear Ben
> >
> > thanks for that email and I pretty much agree with your summary of the
> world
> > situation,
> >
> > not sure though where I can find these data,
> >
> > but here is a summary by Ted Trainer:
> > http://p2pfoundation.net/Radical_Implications_of_a_Zero_Growth_Economy
> >
> > (see also below, I"m adding stuff as I think of it)
> >
> > and this is probably quite important:
> > http://p2pfoundation.net/Planetary_Boundaries
> >
> > "The following points drive home the magnitude of the overshoot:
> >
> > If the 9 billion people we will have on earth within about 50 years were
> to
> > use resources at the per capita rate of the rich countries, annual
> resource
> > production would have to be about 8 times as great as it is now.
> > If 9 billion people were to have a North American diet we would need
> about
> > 4.5 billion ha of cropland, but there are only 1.4 billion ha of cropland
> on
> > the planet.
> > Water resources are scarce and dwindling. What will the situation be if 9
> > billion people try to use water as we in rich countries do, while the
> > greenhouse problem reduces water resources.
> > The world’s fisheries are in serious trouble now, most of them overfished
> > and in decline. What happens if 9 billion people try to eat fish at the
> rate
> > Australian’s do now?
> > Several mineral and other resources are likely to be very scarce soon,
> > including gallium, indium, helium, and there are worries about copper,
> zinc,
> > silver and phosphorous.
> > Oil and gas are likely to be in decline soon, and largely unavailable in
> the
> > second half of the century. If 9 billion were to consume oil at the
> > Australian per capita rate, world demand would be about 5 times as great
> as
> > it is now. The seriousness of this is extreme, given the heavy dependence
> of
> > our society on liquid fuels.
> > Recent 'Footprint' analysis indicates that it takes 8 ha of productive
> land
> > to provide water, energy, settlement area and food for one person living
> in
> > Australia. (World Wildlife Fund, 2009.) So if 9 billion people were to
> live
> > as we do about 72 billion ha of productive land would be needed. But that
> is
> > about 10 times all the available productive land on the planet.
> > The most disturbing argument is to do with the greenhouse problem. It is
> > very likely that in order to stop the carbon content of the atmosphere
> > rising to dangerous levels CO2 emissions will have to be totally
> eliminated
> > by 2050 (Hansen says 2030). (Hansen, 2009, Meinschausen et al., 2009.)
> > Geo-sequestration can’t enable this, if only because it can only capture
> > about 85% of the 50% of emissions that come from stationary sources like
> > power stations."
> >
> > some sources to check:
> >
> > http://p2pfoundation.net/Energy_Scenarios
> >
> > http://p2pfoundation.net/Powerdown_Scenarios
> >
> > http://p2pfoundation.net/Sustainable_Shrinkage
> >
> > I recommend you take a look at 'overall policy frameworks', see
> >
> > Introduction:
> >
> > On the Necessity of Mediation for Economic and Social Transitions.
> Christian
> > Arnsperger.
> > Christian Arnsperger: The Concept of Transition. [38]
> >
> > Ways to organize P2P-Commons oriented proposals in a coherent whole:
> >
> > The Five Capitals Model
> > Seven Acupuncture Points for Shifting to Capitalism 3.0. Otto Scharmer.
> > David Korten: Seven Global Sources of Dysfunction and their Corresponding
> > Corrective Actions
> > Christian Arnsperger: Six Framework Conditions for Global Systemic Change
> > The New Economy Working Group, with David Korten, Nine Action Clusters
> and
> > Three Defining System Conditions
> > 11 Structural Problems of the Current World System
> >
> > That's it for today!
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > On Wed, Sep 14, 2011 at 12:36 AM, ben zand <benzand57 at gmail.com> wrote:
> >>
> >> Great. Again I deeply appreciate your time and efforts for humanity. And
> I
> >> do not expect any complete answers as I think that is beyond the scope
> of
> >> any one mind to comprehend with he interweaving complexities of today. I
> am
> >> beginning my paper by looking at the economic realities which
> >> drive the world and determine possibilities. Which in itself, I feel, is
> one
> >> of the root problems of humanity. Developed countries have become
> infatuated
> >> with growth and economic measures as the goals for society. This
> obviously
> >> isn't going to create a benevolent world as each country competes for
> >> exponential growth in a limited planet. Now it seems the United States,
> the
> >> engine and absorber, of economic growth has reached its limits
> >> of consumption as the population cannot service much new added debt,
> which
> >> allowed it to maintain this position. The globalist appear to look
> toward
> >> China and the developing world as the next engine after the next black
> swan
> >> induced market crash depresses the economy and destabilizes the U.S.'s
> >> position. In any plan to create new structures for the future of
> humanity,
> >> we must first roughly understand the environment in which they will be
> >> created and the palpability of these new possible changes.
> >> So first question: Is it possible, or do you know of resources and data
> I
> >> can look at, to maintain the exponential growth the economic structures
> >> require? Id appreciate any other reflections or ideas you have about how
> >> this relatively short-term scenario could possibly play out.
> >> Ben
> >
> >
>
>
>
> --
> --
> Sam Rose
> Hollymead Capital Partners, LLC
> Cel: +1-(517)-974-6451
> email: samuel.rose at gmail.com
> http://hollymeadcapital.com
> http://p2pfoundation.net
> http://futureforwardinstitute.com
> http://socialmediaclassroom.com
>
> "The universe is not required to be in perfect harmony with human
> ambition." - Carl Sagan
>

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