[P2P-F] Ecological and economic limits and overshoot

[Samuel Rose]

On Thu, Sep 15, 2011 at 10:10 AM, Michel Bauwens
<michel at p2pfoundation.net> wrote:
> thanks Sam,
>
> if you ever see timelines on this, thanks for letting me and ben know,
>

Sure, I've never seen one comprehensive timeline, but if you give me
maybe about a 3 month lead time, I could build a synthesis timeline
with http://www.simile-widgets.org/timeline/ that we can just keep
adding to. Probably could read some specific data point from media
wiki pages. If there is even a tiny amount of research funding for
that, I'd be glad to have it too, of course.

> On Thu, Sep 15, 2011 at 9:07 PM, Samuel Rose <samuel.rose at gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>> Michel, yes I thought 2030 was plausible. (stop reading this now if
>> you are easily depressed). Now, I think we could see problems in even
>> *less* time than that. We could see the West Antarctic Ice Sheet
>> suddenly slide into the ocean, which would raise sea levels very
>> quickly. Or, we could see as little as a decade long release of
>> giga-tons of methane gas from the ocean floor. 55 million years ago,
>> just such an event happened, according to paleoclimatologists, and it
>> caused a temperature spike of 8 degrees celsius, killing 2/3 of ocean
>> species. Ice ages also show evidence of rapid climate shift (even as
>> little as 3 years).
>>
>> On top of that, we can see that we are now down to about 10% of world
>> fisheries
>> http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2003/05/0515_030515_fishdecline.html
>> ,
>>
>> 10% of rainforests. (next year we are projected to cross the threshold
>> of 10% of rainforests and 50% of species that some believe rainforest
>> ecologies can bounce back from on their own
>> http://www.rainforests.net/variables.htm )
>>
>> And, we are using 1 and one half of the total capacity of the earth to
>> replenish itself! We have *already* exceeded the limits of growth.
>> http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/GFN/page/world_footprint/
>>
>> Plus, I think it is clear that on a worldwide bio-psyhco-social level,
>> we are already seeing many areas slide into control paradigms (most
>> remarkably right here in the West), while we're also seeing people
>> coordinate to topple old control regimes, or broken bureaucracies.
>>
>> What this all means to me is that we are already in serious, serious
>> trouble. Yet, as we discussed in work in Future Forward Institute, and
>> as we've explored here in P2P Foundation for a number of years, there
>> is also plenty that is emerging as adaptation to these changes
>>
>> On Wed, Sep 14, 2011 at 6:03 AM, Michel Bauwens
>> <michel at p2pfoundation.net> wrote:
>> > thanks for helping Ben, in cc, with this important question:
>> >
>> > < first question: Is it possible, or do you know of resources and data I
>> > can
>> > look at, to maintain the exponential growth the economic structures
>> > require?
>> > Id appreciate any other reflections or ideas you have about how this
>> > relatively short-term scenario could possibly play out. >
>> >
>> > part of my own answer is below with recommended resources
>> >
>> > Ben, see
>> >
>> > http://blog.p2pfoundation.net/p2p-practices-as-condition-for-the-next-long-wave/2011/01/14
>> >
>> > In this paper, I draw on Kondratieff wave theory and Carlota Perez to
>> > describe the near and longer future scenario,
>> >
>> > basically:
>> >
>> > Sudden system shock makes previous system inoperable
>> >
>> > 15 years of crisis, deleveraging of debt, etc ....
>> >
>> > New wave based on new principles, which could/should include substantive
>> > p2p
>> > practices
>> >
>> > However, the underlying biospheric and civilisational crisis may very
>> > well
>> > complicate things substantially, this may very well be the last wave of
>> > capitalism
>> >
>> > Sam, I remember you place the congruence of ecological crisis in 2030,
>> > do
>> > you have any sources on that?
>> >
>> > Michel
>> >
>> > ---------- Forwarded message ----------
>> > From: Michel Bauwens <michel at p2pfoundation.net>
>> > Date: Wed, Sep 14, 2011 at 4:57 PM
>> > Subject: Re: Student Paper
>> > To: ben zand <benzand57 at gmail.com>
>> >
>> >
>> > Dear Ben
>> >
>> > thanks for that email and I pretty much agree with your summary of the
>> > world
>> > situation,
>> >
>> > not sure though where I can find these data,
>> >
>> > but here is a summary by Ted Trainer:
>> > http://p2pfoundation.net/Radical_Implications_of_a_Zero_Growth_Economy
>> >
>> > (see also below, I"m adding stuff as I think of it)
>> >
>> > and this is probably quite important:
>> > http://p2pfoundation.net/Planetary_Boundaries
>> >
>> > "The following points drive home the magnitude of the overshoot:
>> >
>> > If the 9 billion people we will have on earth within about 50 years were
>> > to
>> > use resources at the per capita rate of the rich countries, annual
>> > resource
>> > production would have to be about 8 times as great as it is now.
>> > If 9 billion people were to have a North American diet we would need
>> > about
>> > 4.5 billion ha of cropland, but there are only 1.4 billion ha of
>> > cropland on
>> > the planet.
>> > Water resources are scarce and dwindling. What will the situation be if
>> > 9
>> > billion people try to use water as we in rich countries do, while the
>> > greenhouse problem reduces water resources.
>> > The world’s fisheries are in serious trouble now, most of them
>> > overfished
>> > and in decline. What happens if 9 billion people try to eat fish at the
>> > rate
>> > Australian’s do now?
>> > Several mineral and other resources are likely to be very scarce soon,
>> > including gallium, indium, helium, and there are worries about copper,
>> > zinc,
>> > silver and phosphorous.
>> > Oil and gas are likely to be in decline soon, and largely unavailable in
>> > the
>> > second half of the century. If 9 billion were to consume oil at the
>> > Australian per capita rate, world demand would be about 5 times as great
>> > as
>> > it is now. The seriousness of this is extreme, given the heavy
>> > dependence of
>> > our society on liquid fuels.
>> > Recent 'Footprint' analysis indicates that it takes 8 ha of productive
>> > land
>> > to provide water, energy, settlement area and food for one person living
>> > in
>> > Australia. (World Wildlife Fund, 2009.) So if 9 billion people were to
>> > live
>> > as we do about 72 billion ha of productive land would be needed. But
>> > that is
>> > about 10 times all the available productive land on the planet.
>> > The most disturbing argument is to do with the greenhouse problem. It is
>> > very likely that in order to stop the carbon content of the atmosphere
>> > rising to dangerous levels CO2 emissions will have to be totally
>> > eliminated
>> > by 2050 (Hansen says 2030). (Hansen, 2009, Meinschausen et al., 2009.)
>> > Geo-sequestration can’t enable this, if only because it can only capture
>> > about 85% of the 50% of emissions that come from stationary sources like
>> > power stations."
>> >
>> > some sources to check:
>> >
>> > http://p2pfoundation.net/Energy_Scenarios
>> >
>> > http://p2pfoundation.net/Powerdown_Scenarios
>> >
>> > http://p2pfoundation.net/Sustainable_Shrinkage
>> >
>> > I recommend you take a look at 'overall policy frameworks', see
>> >
>> > Introduction:
>> >
>> > On the Necessity of Mediation for Economic and Social Transitions.
>> > Christian
>> > Arnsperger.
>> > Christian Arnsperger: The Concept of Transition. [38]
>> >
>> > Ways to organize P2P-Commons oriented proposals in a coherent whole:
>> >
>> > The Five Capitals Model
>> > Seven Acupuncture Points for Shifting to Capitalism 3.0. Otto Scharmer.
>> > David Korten: Seven Global Sources of Dysfunction and their
>> > Corresponding
>> > Corrective Actions
>> > Christian Arnsperger: Six Framework Conditions for Global Systemic
>> > Change
>> > The New Economy Working Group, with David Korten, Nine Action Clusters
>> > and
>> > Three Defining System Conditions
>> > 11 Structural Problems of the Current World System
>> >
>> > That's it for today!
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> > On Wed, Sep 14, 2011 at 12:36 AM, ben zand <benzand57 at gmail.com> wrote:
>> >>
>> >> Great. Again I deeply appreciate your time and efforts for humanity.
>> >> And I
>> >> do not expect any complete answers as I think that is beyond the scope
>> >> of
>> >> any one mind to comprehend with he interweaving complexities of today.
>> >> I am
>> >> beginning my paper by looking at the economic realities which
>> >> drive the world and determine possibilities. Which in itself, I feel,
>> >> is one
>> >> of the root problems of humanity. Developed countries have become
>> >> infatuated
>> >> with growth and economic measures as the goals for society. This
>> >> obviously
>> >> isn't going to create a benevolent world as each country competes for
>> >> exponential growth in a limited planet. Now it seems the United States,
>> >> the
>> >> engine and absorber, of economic growth has reached its limits
>> >> of consumption as the population cannot service much new added debt,
>> >> which
>> >> allowed it to maintain this position. The globalist appear to look
>> >> toward
>> >> China and the developing world as the next engine after the next black
>> >> swan
>> >> induced market crash depresses the economy and destabilizes the U.S.'s
>> >> position. In any plan to create new structures for the future of
>> >> humanity,
>> >> we must first roughly understand the environment in which they will be
>> >> created and the palpability of these new possible changes.
>> >> So first question: Is it possible, or do you know of resources and data
>> >> I
>> >> can look at, to maintain the exponential growth the economic structures
>> >> require? Id appreciate any other reflections or ideas you have about
>> >> how
>> >> this relatively short-term scenario could possibly play out.
>> >> Ben
>> >
>> >
>>
>>
>>
>> --
>> --
>> Sam Rose
>> Hollymead Capital Partners, LLC
>> Cel: +1-(517)-974-6451
>> email: samuel.rose at gmail.com
>> http://hollymeadcapital.com
>> http://p2pfoundation.net
>> http://futureforwardinstitute.com
>> http://socialmediaclassroom.com
>>
>> "The universe is not required to be in perfect harmony with human
>> ambition." - Carl Sagan
>
>
>
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>



-- 
--
Sam Rose
Hollymead Capital Partners, LLC
Cel: +1-(517)-974-6451
email: samuel.rose at gmail.com
http://hollymeadcapital.com
http://p2pfoundation.net
http://futureforwardinstitute.com
http://socialmediaclassroom.com

"The universe is not required to be in perfect harmony with human
ambition." - Carl Sagan