[P2P-F] Fwd: Financially Advantageous Approaches To Sustain The Ecosystem

Michel Bauwens michelsub2004 at gmail.com
Sat Dec 21 12:44:52 CET 2019


---------- Forwarded message ---------
From: Hazel Henderson <hazel.henderson at ethicalmarkets.com>
Date: Fri, Dec 20, 2019 at 3:19 AM
Subject: Financially Advantageous Approaches To Sustain The Ecosystem
To: Larae Long <larae.long at ethicalmarkets.com>


“Ethical Markets highly recommends this article “Financially Advantageous
Approaches to Sustain the Ecosystem” by NASA Chief Scientist Dennis
Bushnell, which outlines the best ways forward to accelerate the shift from
fossilized industrial sectors to the fully competitive, renewable,
highly-efficient circular economies we have tracked in our Green Transition
Scoreboard® annually since 2009, currently totaling a cumulative $10.387
trillion.

Also recommended are our six programs with Bushnell in our TV series
distributed globally to colleges at www.films.com and  our 2010 Statement
on  “Transforming Finance“
<http://www.ethicalmarkets.com/transforming-finance-groups-call-recognizes-finance-as-a-global-commons/>,
now signed by almost one hundred financial professionals.

~Hazel Henderson, Editor“




Financially Advantageous Approaches To Sustain The Ecosystem



Dennis M. Bushnell, NASA Langley Research Center
  Introduction



Humans are shorter term in their approach to problems and solution spaces.
For evolutionary, gradual changes/issues with less than major impacts in
the longer term, such a tactical approach is/has been successful. Abetting
such a prevalent near term focus are two realisms: first, the amygdala, the
part of our brain that keeps us conservative and second the power,
financial and political of the current status quo/“winners”.  The overall
result is a reluctance/resistance to change, risk aversion, and
shorter-term fixation.

Although we have extensively studied climate change and ecosystem
degeneration driven by human activities for decades, there has been huge
inertia-to-denial until rather serious changes/impacts became readily
apparent. Examples of such impacts for climate change include more
prevalent and extreme floods, storms, disease, fires, ocean level rise,
species extinctions, ocean acidification, ocean circulation changes, and
temperature increases and are in fact evident now. In fact, during the
Permian Extinction (also known as “The Great Dying”) the ocean circulation
changes resulted in increased anoxic ocean conditions, leading to an
overgrowth of cyanobacteria/blue-green algae. This alga produces hydrogen
sulfide, which, in small percentages in the atmosphere, is a poison and
attrite the ozone layer. Therefore, climate change is more than warm days
and wet feet. The book “Drawdown” by Paul Hawken provides an extensive
compilation of approaches to mitigate climate change. He discusses 80+ ways
forward with an estimated total savings of approximately $73T over 30 years
(Ref. 1). Current impacts to ecosystems include: fresh water shortages,
species extinctions, pollution, deforestation, loss of topsoil, and
wildlife habitat. The humans are practicing anti-terraforming, with many
and rapidly increasing costs (e.g. financial, human/species lives, quality
of life, etc.).

Fundamentally, humans have been too successful as a species. We have
pursued ever greater human numbers and an overall growth mantra as the
economic basis without consideration of the finite size and capacity of
available resources and the dumping ground (e.g. the major human uses of
the finite ecosystem). The ecosystem provides the essentials for life
including water, air, food, soil, plants, minerals, etc. and we are
seriously now degrading it at our peril. Water regulation, pollution
filtering, waste sink functionality, soil retention, nutrient cycling, and
waste decomposition are all becoming degraded. Ever greater growth with a
fixed resource is only possible via utilizing technology and approaches to
alter resource utilization and/or controlling population. For many
centuries, as humans depleted local resources, they have simply moved to
other regions where resources were available. That is no longer an option
as the present technologies and processes are degenerating the entire
planet. There appears to be general agreement that we are short
approximately 50% of a planet now. As world population growth continues and
living standards rise, projections include a shortage of some three planets
(i.e. ecosystem resource utilization and dumping will have to reduce
considerably). Altering technology and approaches to adapt to such growth
is termed sustainability, with various alternatives termed green growth,
reusability and The Circular Economy.  It also involves the valuing,
protection, and strengthening of what are termed “ecosystem services” (Ref.
2).

The purpose of this report is to consider the examination and application
of financial gain incentives to greatly accelerate the development of
sustainability as a whole. This financial approach is responsible for the
now hugely successful growth of renewable energy generation and storage.
During the last decades, technology has reduced the costs of renewables and
storage to the point where they are below parity and still reducing in
cost. Not much happened with regard to application and utilization of
renewables until their costs reduced such that financially they were the
best solution (Ref 17). The major determiner of their application was
financial gain and not the climate downsides enumerated above. Also,
inexpensive renewable, green electric generation and storage are the
pivotal key or enabler for climate mitigation as electrification can be
applied widely to the other major sources of CO2 besides electric
generation (e.g. transportation, industrial and commercial operations,
building HVAC, etc.). Many functions and processes now producing CO2 can be
electrified, so the renewables growth will have a seriously major overall
impact on climate. It is perhaps useful to examine the particulars
regarding this financial driven renewables success story, and then to
collect and ideate some similar financially overarching approaches and
technologies for ecosystem rejuvenation/sustainability to hopefully greatly
accelerate such.

There are two obvious high-level sources of financial benefit for both the
ecosystem and the portion of the ecosystem currently being seriously worked
(i.e. climate). These financially beneficial approaches strive to mitigate
the trillions of dollars of negative effects due to ecosystems and climate
if the current negative trends continue, and to alter technology and
approaches to situations with major profit potential. First, the current
financial approaches for climate will be examined and then secondly, a
similar overall approach will be applied to the rest of the ecosystem to
enable sustainability, the circular economy, green growth, etc., obviating
continued ecosystem degradation in the process. The overall bottom line of
business as usual is an average loss of some 7% (or more depending upon
actual temperature rise) of global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2100
(Ref. 3). On the other hand, seriously working mitigation of the ecosystem
including climate is projected to increase global GDP by some 5% by 2050.

It is not possible to change things for the overall financial and ecosystem
good without, in fact, changing some things. There will be winners and
losers. In the case of climate, for renewable energy the winners are the
public with reduced climate impacts across the board, reduced energy bills,
cleaner air, and firms that successfully manufacture and sell various types
of renewable energy. Losers thus far, due to availability of lower cost
options, include coal and nuclear power. As renewables and storage continue
to reduce in cost and become more efficient, gas and petroleum will
probably be seriously affected. Investors in these previously dominant
industries will be left with stranded assets even though the amounts
invested in these fossil carbon industries were, are, still remain, major.
Therefore, as we change our approaches to reverse the current climate and
ecosystem trends, there will be financial difficulties associated with such
losers that will have to be considered/worked. For example, the stock
market value of the U.S. coal industry in 2011 was worth approximately
$37B. As of 2019, its worth was about $2B (Ref. 4). Historically, there
have been concerns regarding the costs of ecosystem/climate remediation.
However, now action has shifted to concerns going forward regarding the
even greater costs of not taking action/remediation (Ref. 5) along with not
taking advantage of the financial opportunities associated with those
remediation approaches (e.g. green growth and the circular economy).  As
mentioned previously, there will be some cases where specific major
industry/resources will be negatively impacted.

An indication of this 180 degree shift is mirrored in the increasing
importance of climate/environmental performance upon the evaluation of top
management. The governor of the bank of England stated that companies that
fail to respond to the challenges of climate change will go bankrupt
without question. The value of the rapidly growing Global Green Economy in
2015/16 was at least $7.87T (Ref. 6).
A Simplex Look at The Climate Financials Story   Part One – Negative
Climate Change and Financial Avoidance

1.    Avoidance of huge insurance*, personal, productivity,
commercial/industrial losses from climate change induced/increased
phenomena including:

-       Flooding

-       Storms

-       Fires

-       Sea Level Rise

-       Droughts

-       Disease

-       Temperature increase/heat

-       Landslides



*Insurance is some 11% of the U.S. GDP (Ref 5).



2.    Avoidance of negative impacts on fields such as:

-       Agriculture

-       Fishing

-       Health services

Infrastructures

-       Mining

-       Supply chains

-       Food systems

-       Asset prices (including real estate)

-       Land/labor productivity



3.    Projections indicate that the U.S. economy could shrink on the order
of 10% to 25% by 2100 depending upon the effects of positive feedbacks.



4.    Recent estimates of the social monetized cost/ton of CO2 emissions on
the economy is on the order of $100/ton in 2018, with 37B tons emitted,
resulting in $3.7T/yr societal costs or approximately 4% of GDP (Ref. 7).
Other recent estimates of the social cost of carbon range from $220 (Ref.
8) to $500+ per ton of CO2 emissions, depending upon what costs are
included.



5.    Given the cost of raising children, it is of interest that in terms
of reducing carbon emissions at the personal level, having one fewer child
saves the most by far, 58 tons of CO2 emissions/yr (Ref. 9).



6.    Consumers, given the now obvious manifestations of climate change,
are increasingly demanding climate friendly operations and products across
the board, producing loss of business for those who do not deliver such



7.    Almost a quarter of all disease is caused by adverse environmental
exposure (Ref. 10).



8.    Estimates indicate a two degree C temperature rise would reduce GDP
by 15% and a three degree C rise would reduce it 25%. In 2100, temperature
rise is slated for 4 degrees C, producing a 30% reduction in GDP (Ref. 11).



9.    Yearly cost for unmitigated climate change would total at least 5% of
GDP and the yearly cost could be as high as 20% of GDP (Ref. 12).



10. Warming of 6 degrees C could lead to present value loss of $43T or 30%
of the global total (Ref. 13).



11. Since 1980, extreme weather has cost $1.6T (Ref. 11).



12. Over a decade the U.S. EPA Regulations cost $45B and produced $640B in
benefits (Ref. 14).
  13.  In the U.S., $23 trillion will be lost if temperatures rise four
degrees by 2100 (Ref. 15).

Part Two – Prospective Financial Gains from Mitigating Climate Change



   1. Due to technologies and economies of scale, renewable energy
   generation is now at or below cost parity with fossil carbon fuels and
   still plummeting. Energy storage costs are reducing rapidly, leading to
   cheaper electricity and electric transportation, new markets, and reduced
   costs of living and manufacturing costs. Indicators show large job
   increases in related fields, reduced health issues from fossil fuel
   pollution, along with much reduced cooling water requirements.



   1. Less costly energy enables more profitable desalinization, aluminum
   production, ocean mining, etc.



   1. Distributed energy, including at home energy generation, constitutes
   a more reliable, robust, and less expensive system.



   1. Energy conservation developments enabled efficient buildings that
   produce energy vice constituting a sizable source of energy load, major
   costs.



   1. There are potentially huge profits from switching from
   Glycophyte/fresh water agricultural approaches to halophyte/saline (Ref 16)
   agriculture. It allows for utilization of massive currently unexploited
   planet resources such as deserts/wastelands and saline/seawater. This new
   approach would:


   - Produce biomass for replacing petroleum for petrochemical feedstock
   - Produce massive amounts of food/free up a sizable portion of the 70%
   of the fresh water now used for agriculture
   - Produce massive amounts of biofuels
   - Sequester major amounts of CO2
   - Address resource challenges relating to land, water, food, energy, and
   climate
   - Reduce costs of, and the need for, ever more courageous water
   conservation



   1. This new approach would result in a wholly new agricultural industry
   with a huge environmental upside utilizing ultra-inexpensive land and water.



   1. Battery/energy storage markets are huge, and increasing rapidly.
   Battery prices have fallen some 85% in a decade (Ref 17).



   1. Renewable energy investments over the past decade are estimated at
   $2.5T, with a major growth in related employment (Ref 18).



   1. Reportedly, investing $1.7T in climate change mitigation over the
   next 10 years would yield $7T in economic returns, due to avoidance and
   increased productivity of new equipment (Ref 19).


A Look at the Potential Ecosystem Financials Outlook Part One - Negative
Ecosystem Degradation Financial Avoidance



   1. Avoidance of major personal, commercial, industrial, and agricultural
   losses from ecosystem degradation due to:


   - Loss of topsoil
   - Fresh water shortages
   - Species extinctions
   - Pollution including trash and industrial waste
   - Deforestation
   - Loss of fish stocks
   - Depletion of natural resources



   1. Avoidance of some 9 million deaths/year from pollution (e.g. ozone,
   CO, NO2, particulates, SO2, ammonia, lead, chemicals), which is 15 times
   the number of deaths from wars and 16% of global deaths/year. Costs of
   pollution are some $4.6T on the global economy (Ref. 20).



   1. Marine plastic pollution costs the world up to $2.5T a year (Ref 21).



   1. Nine out of 10 people in the world breathe highly polluted air (Ref
   22).



   1. The world’s terrestrial ecosystem services have been valued on an
   annual basis to be approximately equivalent to the annual GDP (Ref. 25).



   1. The cumulative loss of biodiversity and associated ecosystem services
   between 2000 and 2050 could be equivalent to 7% of the 2050 world GDP (Ref
   24).



   1. Between 1997 and 2011, estimates indicate the world lost up to $21T
   in ecosystem services due to land cover change and land degeneration (Ref.
   23). [Note: certain references calculate ecosystem services loses
   differently based on certain variables.]



   1. Ecosystem services vital to human well-being (e.g. crop pollination,
   water purification, flood protection, and carbon sequestration), are
   evaluated at an estimated $125-140T/ year, 1.5 times greater than the
   global GDP (Ref. 23). [Note: certain references calculate ecosystem
   services differently based on certain variables.]

Part Two – Prospective Financial Gains from Approaches to Reverse Ecosystem
Degradation



   1. Halophytes, salt plants on wastelands, deserts using saline/seawater



The immense advantages of switching to halophytes (Ref. 16) include:

   - Saline-tolerant plant biomass utilizing what we have a surfeit of (and
   what could be our last major play regarding the ecosystem): wastelands,
   deserts (which make up 44% of the land area), and seawater (97% of the
   planet's water resources).
   - Seawater contains 80% of the nutrients needed to grow plants, and
   researchers are developing new techniques to extract nitrogen from the air,
   thus requiring little fertilizer.
   - Advanced technology is not required and cultivation uses inexpensive
   land and water, so the economics are very favorable. The shift to
   halophytes could be accomplished in relatively short order.
   - Halophyte cultivation for food would free up 70% or more of the total
   freshwater used for conventional glycophyte agriculture, and which we are
   now running out of for direct human use, thus solving both water and food
   problems
   - Cultivation of halophyte biomass would similarly obviate the necessity
   of using arable land and freshwater for biofuels and provide petrochemical
   feedstocks for plastics and other industrial products, essentially
   eliminating the need for petroleum feed stocks. It is literally green
   energy and chemicals.
   - Halophytes sequester up to 18% of their carbon dioxide uptake in their
   deep roots (5 tons of CO2/Ha) removing CO2 from the atmosphere.
   - Seawater contains trace elements essential to healthy human
   physiology, which we have largely depleted from arable land due to overuse.


   1. Ocean mineral extraction using inexpensive renewable energy instead
   of hard rock mining which is a major source of pollution.



   1. Recycling (aka the circular economy) for nearly everything including
   solids, liquids, and gases. Tech companies to do this at ultra-low costs
   and increasingly local including printers.



   1. The University of Nottingham is attempting to utilize atmospheric
   nitrogen for agriculture, incurring far less fertilizer costs, runoff, and
   reducing ocean O2 loss.



   1. On less than a half-acre and with help from developing technologies,
   going forward we could:


   - Grow own food
   - Print what we want/need
   - Recycle on site
   - Use distributed energy generation
   - Conduct tele-education and tele-medicine
   - Utilize five senses virtual reality (VR)/tele-travel



This could all be done with far less physical travel needed. Many in the
gig economy (based on flexible, temporary or freelance jobs connecting to
customers through an online platform) and those tele-working/commuting can
live just about anywhere. Going forward some may not need a job since these
opportunities could result in huge personal financial independence and
minimal impacts upon the ecosystem.



   1. The ongoing major shift in wealth generation from exploiting natural
   resources to inventing things has a far smaller ecosystem impact in general.



   1. Various adaptations/resilience approaches to ecosystem and climate
   changes have overall benefits estimated at $7T (Ref 26).



   1. Mckinsey estimates business opportunities on the order of $60B/yr for
   new approaches to plastics recycling (Ref. 27).



   1. 3-D printing will transform manufacturing by allowing the
   manufacturing of products to be accomplished at the individual level. This
   would reduce waste, enable use of new/different materials and much more
   complex/optimized designs/functionalities, while using 90% less material
   and at greatly reduced costs. 3-D printing is set to be an emerging,
   ecosystem friendly evolving market. (Ref. 28).



   1. U.S. green economy estimated at $1.3T/yr, 6.8% of our $19T/yr
   economy. There are greater returns in the green economy than in the stock
   market. Estimated GDP climate losses/yr are some 4% of GDP. Therefore, the
   total effect of mitigating the losses and the green economy is 4 plus 6.8
   or some 11% of GDP, which is nearly 2T (Ref. 29). The global green economy
   is approximately $8T.



   1. There has been $10.4T in private investment during 2009-2019 in the
   Global Green Economy (Ref 30).




Concluding Remarks



Favorable financials and increased profits are, due to massive reductions
in the costs of renewables and storage, currently on a path to mitigate/fix
climate in a few decades. It is more than conceivable, given the huge
economic value of the ecosystem and the major financial upsides of various
mitigation approaches/alternatives, that the financials could also fix the
rest of the ecosystem issues. These considerations, options, and
experiences refute the long held conventional wisdom that fixing the
ecosystem issues, including climate, would be extremely costly and
anti-growth. In fact, considering both the avoidance of financial downsides
and evolving markets for mitigation approaches and their offshoots, fixing
the ecosystem and climate is the way forward to excellent financial growth
and success.  It will require changes, which are either already underway or
available for financial exploitation. So, yes, decarbonization and a
circular economy/green growth are both achievable in the midterm, and are
very financially advantageous. In the case of climate, there was minimal
progress until the financials became advantageous. That same power of the
financials can, and should be successful in regards to greatly improving
the outlook for the rest of the ecosystem.




References



   1. Hawken, Paul, Ed., “Drawdown”, Penguin Books, 2017.
   2. Newcome, Jodi, et al, “The Economic, Social and Ecological Value of
   Ecosystem Services”, EFTEC, Economics for the Environment Consultancy,
   London, January, 2005.
   3. Kahn, Matthew E. et al “Long -Term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate
   Change: a Cross Country Analysis”, NBER working paper, No. 26167, 2019,
   Univ. of Cambridge.
   4. Cho, Renee, “How Climate Change Impacts the Economy”, June 20, 2019,
   State of the Planet, Earth Institute, Colombia University.
   5. Makower, Joel, “Capitolisms’ Change of Climate”, Greenbiz, 6 August,
   2019, https://www.greenbiz.com/article/capitalisms-change-climate.
   6. Georgeson, L. and Maslin, M, “U.S. Green Economy Worth $1.3 T Per
   Year, But New Policies Needed to Maintain Growth”, Phys. Org., Oct. 15,
   2019, University College London,
   https://phys.org/news/2019-10-green-economy-worth-trillion-year.html.
   7. Daniel, Kent D. et al, “Declining CO2 Price Paths”, PNAS, Oct. 15,
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   .
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   .
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   .
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   .





Online Version:  Financially Advantageous Approaches To Sustain The
Ecosystem <http://www.ethicalmarkets.com/62237-2/>







Warmly,

Hazel
























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