[P2P-F] Ecological and economic limits and overshoot

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no funding for that part Sam ... would be good to find though,

Michel

On Thu, Sep 15, 2011 at 10:13 PM, Samuel Rose <samuel.rose at gmail.com> wrote:

> On Thu, Sep 15, 2011 at 10:10 AM, Michel Bauwens
> <michel at p2pfoundation.net> wrote:
> > thanks Sam,
> >
> > if you ever see timelines on this, thanks for letting me and ben know,
> >
>
> Sure, I've never seen one comprehensive timeline, but if you give me
> maybe about a 3 month lead time, I could build a synthesis timeline
> with http://www.simile-widgets.org/timeline/ that we can just keep
> adding to. Probably could read some specific data point from media
> wiki pages. If there is even a tiny amount of research funding for
> that, I'd be glad to have it too, of course.
>
> > On Thu, Sep 15, 2011 at 9:07 PM, Samuel Rose <samuel.rose at gmail.com>
> wrote:
> >>
> >> Michel, yes I thought 2030 was plausible. (stop reading this now if
> >> you are easily depressed). Now, I think we could see problems in even
> >> *less* time than that. We could see the West Antarctic Ice Sheet
> >> suddenly slide into the ocean, which would raise sea levels very
> >> quickly. Or, we could see as little as a decade long release of
> >> giga-tons of methane gas from the ocean floor. 55 million years ago,
> >> just such an event happened, according to paleoclimatologists, and it
> >> caused a temperature spike of 8 degrees celsius, killing 2/3 of ocean
> >> species. Ice ages also show evidence of rapid climate shift (even as
> >> little as 3 years).
> >>
> >> On top of that, we can see that we are now down to about 10% of world
> >> fisheries
> >>
> http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2003/05/0515_030515_fishdecline.html
> >> ,
> >>
> >> 10% of rainforests. (next year we are projected to cross the threshold
> >> of 10% of rainforests and 50% of species that some believe rainforest
> >> ecologies can bounce back from on their own
> >> http://www.rainforests.net/variables.htm )
> >>
> >> And, we are using 1 and one half of the total capacity of the earth to
> >> replenish itself! We have *already* exceeded the limits of growth.
> >> http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/GFN/page/world_footprint/
> >>
> >> Plus, I think it is clear that on a worldwide bio-psyhco-social level,
> >> we are already seeing many areas slide into control paradigms (most
> >> remarkably right here in the West), while we're also seeing people
> >> coordinate to topple old control regimes, or broken bureaucracies.
> >>
> >> What this all means to me is that we are already in serious, serious
> >> trouble. Yet, as we discussed in work in Future Forward Institute, and
> >> as we've explored here in P2P Foundation for a number of years, there
> >> is also plenty that is emerging as adaptation to these changes
> >>
> >> On Wed, Sep 14, 2011 at 6:03 AM, Michel Bauwens
> >> <michel at p2pfoundation.net> wrote:
> >> > thanks for helping Ben, in cc, with this important question:
> >> >
> >> > < first question: Is it possible, or do you know of resources and data
> I
> >> > can
> >> > look at, to maintain the exponential growth the economic structures
> >> > require?
> >> > Id appreciate any other reflections or ideas you have about how this
> >> > relatively short-term scenario could possibly play out. >
> >> >
> >> > part of my own answer is below with recommended resources
> >> >
> >> > Ben, see
> >> >
> >> >
> http://blog.p2pfoundation.net/p2p-practices-as-condition-for-the-next-long-wave/2011/01/14
> >> >
> >> > In this paper, I draw on Kondratieff wave theory and Carlota Perez to
> >> > describe the near and longer future scenario,
> >> >
> >> > basically:
> >> >
> >> > Sudden system shock makes previous system inoperable
> >> >
> >> > 15 years of crisis, deleveraging of debt, etc ....
> >> >
> >> > New wave based on new principles, which could/should include
> substantive
> >> > p2p
> >> > practices
> >> >
> >> > However, the underlying biospheric and civilisational crisis may very
> >> > well
> >> > complicate things substantially, this may very well be the last wave
> of
> >> > capitalism
> >> >
> >> > Sam, I remember you place the congruence of ecological crisis in 2030,
> >> > do
> >> > you have any sources on that?
> >> >
> >> > Michel
> >> >
> >> > ---------- Forwarded message ----------
> >> > From: Michel Bauwens <michel at p2pfoundation.net>
> >> > Date: Wed, Sep 14, 2011 at 4:57 PM
> >> > Subject: Re: Student Paper
> >> > To: ben zand <benzand57 at gmail.com>
> >> >
> >> >
> >> > Dear Ben
> >> >
> >> > thanks for that email and I pretty much agree with your summary of the
> >> > world
> >> > situation,
> >> >
> >> > not sure though where I can find these data,
> >> >
> >> > but here is a summary by Ted Trainer:
> >> >
> http://p2pfoundation.net/Radical_Implications_of_a_Zero_Growth_Economy
> >> >
> >> > (see also below, I"m adding stuff as I think of it)
> >> >
> >> > and this is probably quite important:
> >> > http://p2pfoundation.net/Planetary_Boundaries
> >> >
> >> > "The following points drive home the magnitude of the overshoot:
> >> >
> >> > If the 9 billion people we will have on earth within about 50 years
> were
> >> > to
> >> > use resources at the per capita rate of the rich countries, annual
> >> > resource
> >> > production would have to be about 8 times as great as it is now.
> >> > If 9 billion people were to have a North American diet we would need
> >> > about
> >> > 4.5 billion ha of cropland, but there are only 1.4 billion ha of
> >> > cropland on
> >> > the planet.
> >> > Water resources are scarce and dwindling. What will the situation be
> if
> >> > 9
> >> > billion people try to use water as we in rich countries do, while the
> >> > greenhouse problem reduces water resources.
> >> > The world’s fisheries are in serious trouble now, most of them
> >> > overfished
> >> > and in decline. What happens if 9 billion people try to eat fish at
> the
> >> > rate
> >> > Australian’s do now?
> >> > Several mineral and other resources are likely to be very scarce soon,
> >> > including gallium, indium, helium, and there are worries about copper,
> >> > zinc,
> >> > silver and phosphorous.
> >> > Oil and gas are likely to be in decline soon, and largely unavailable
> in
> >> > the
> >> > second half of the century. If 9 billion were to consume oil at the
> >> > Australian per capita rate, world demand would be about 5 times as
> great
> >> > as
> >> > it is now. The seriousness of this is extreme, given the heavy
> >> > dependence of
> >> > our society on liquid fuels.
> >> > Recent 'Footprint' analysis indicates that it takes 8 ha of productive
> >> > land
> >> > to provide water, energy, settlement area and food for one person
> living
> >> > in
> >> > Australia. (World Wildlife Fund, 2009.) So if 9 billion people were to
> >> > live
> >> > as we do about 72 billion ha of productive land would be needed. But
> >> > that is
> >> > about 10 times all the available productive land on the planet.
> >> > The most disturbing argument is to do with the greenhouse problem. It
> is
> >> > very likely that in order to stop the carbon content of the atmosphere
> >> > rising to dangerous levels CO2 emissions will have to be totally
> >> > eliminated
> >> > by 2050 (Hansen says 2030). (Hansen, 2009, Meinschausen et al., 2009.)
> >> > Geo-sequestration can’t enable this, if only because it can only
> capture
> >> > about 85% of the 50% of emissions that come from stationary sources
> like
> >> > power stations."
> >> >
> >> > some sources to check:
> >> >
> >> > http://p2pfoundation.net/Energy_Scenarios
> >> >
> >> > http://p2pfoundation.net/Powerdown_Scenarios
> >> >
> >> > http://p2pfoundation.net/Sustainable_Shrinkage
> >> >
> >> > I recommend you take a look at 'overall policy frameworks', see
> >> >
> >> > Introduction:
> >> >
> >> > On the Necessity of Mediation for Economic and Social Transitions.
> >> > Christian
> >> > Arnsperger.
> >> > Christian Arnsperger: The Concept of Transition. [38]
> >> >
> >> > Ways to organize P2P-Commons oriented proposals in a coherent whole:
> >> >
> >> > The Five Capitals Model
> >> > Seven Acupuncture Points for Shifting to Capitalism 3.0. Otto
> Scharmer.
> >> > David Korten: Seven Global Sources of Dysfunction and their
> >> > Corresponding
> >> > Corrective Actions
> >> > Christian Arnsperger: Six Framework Conditions for Global Systemic
> >> > Change
> >> > The New Economy Working Group, with David Korten, Nine Action Clusters
> >> > and
> >> > Three Defining System Conditions
> >> > 11 Structural Problems of the Current World System
> >> >
> >> > That's it for today!
> >> >
> >> >
> >> >
> >> >
> >> >
> >> >
> >> >
> >> >
> >> >
> >> >
> >> > On Wed, Sep 14, 2011 at 12:36 AM, ben zand <benzand57 at gmail.com>
> wrote:
> >> >>
> >> >> Great. Again I deeply appreciate your time and efforts for humanity.
> >> >> And I
> >> >> do not expect any complete answers as I think that is beyond the
> scope
> >> >> of
> >> >> any one mind to comprehend with he interweaving complexities of
> today.
> >> >> I am
> >> >> beginning my paper by looking at the economic realities which
> >> >> drive the world and determine possibilities. Which in itself, I feel,
> >> >> is one
> >> >> of the root problems of humanity. Developed countries have become
> >> >> infatuated
> >> >> with growth and economic measures as the goals for society. This
> >> >> obviously
> >> >> isn't going to create a benevolent world as each country competes for
> >> >> exponential growth in a limited planet. Now it seems the United
> States,
> >> >> the
> >> >> engine and absorber, of economic growth has reached its limits
> >> >> of consumption as the population cannot service much new added debt,
> >> >> which
> >> >> allowed it to maintain this position. The globalist appear to look
> >> >> toward
> >> >> China and the developing world as the next engine after the next
> black
> >> >> swan
> >> >> induced market crash depresses the economy and destabilizes the
> U.S.'s
> >> >> position. In any plan to create new structures for the future of
> >> >> humanity,
> >> >> we must first roughly understand the environment in which they will
> be
> >> >> created and the palpability of these new possible changes.
> >> >> So first question: Is it possible, or do you know of resources and
> data
> >> >> I
> >> >> can look at, to maintain the exponential growth the economic
> structures
> >> >> require? Id appreciate any other reflections or ideas you have about
> >> >> how
> >> >> this relatively short-term scenario could possibly play out.
> >> >> Ben
> >> >
> >> >
> >>
> >>
> >>
> >> --
> >> --
> >> Sam Rose
> >> Hollymead Capital Partners, LLC
> >> Cel: +1-(517)-974-6451
> >> email: samuel.rose at gmail.com
> >> http://hollymeadcapital.com
> >> http://p2pfoundation.net
> >> http://futureforwardinstitute.com
> >> http://socialmediaclassroom.com
> >>
> >> "The universe is not required to be in perfect harmony with human
> >> ambition." - Carl Sagan
> >
> >
> >
> > --
> > P2P Foundation: http://p2pfoundation.net  -
> http://blog.p2pfoundation.net
> >
> > Connect: http://p2pfoundation.ning.com;
> > Discuss:
> http://lists.ourproject.org/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/p2p-foundation
> > Updates: http://del.icio.us/mbauwens; http://friendfeed.com/mbauwens;
> > http://twitter.com/mbauwens; http://www.facebook.com/mbauwens
> >
> >
>
>
>
> --
> --
> Sam Rose
> Hollymead Capital Partners, LLC
> Cel: +1-(517)-974-6451
> email: samuel.rose at gmail.com
> http://hollymeadcapital.com
> http://p2pfoundation.net
> http://futureforwardinstitute.com
> http://socialmediaclassroom.com
>
> "The universe is not required to be in perfect harmony with human
> ambition." - Carl Sagan
>



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