no funding for that part Sam ... would be good to find though,<br><br>Michel<br><br><div class="gmail_quote">On Thu, Sep 15, 2011 at 10:13 PM, Samuel Rose <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:samuel.rose@gmail.com">samuel.rose@gmail.com</a>></span> wrote:<br>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0pt 0.8ex; border-left: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding-left: 1ex;"><div class="im">On Thu, Sep 15, 2011 at 10:10 AM, Michel Bauwens<br>
<<a href="mailto:michel@p2pfoundation.net">michel@p2pfoundation.net</a>> wrote:<br>
> thanks Sam,<br>
><br>
> if you ever see timelines on this, thanks for letting me and ben know,<br>
><br>
<br>
</div>Sure, I've never seen one comprehensive timeline, but if you give me<br>
maybe about a 3 month lead time, I could build a synthesis timeline<br>
with <a href="http://www.simile-widgets.org/timeline/" target="_blank">http://www.simile-widgets.org/timeline/</a> that we can just keep<br>
adding to. Probably could read some specific data point from media<br>
wiki pages. If there is even a tiny amount of research funding for<br>
that, I'd be glad to have it too, of course.<br>
<div><div></div><div class="h5"><br>
> On Thu, Sep 15, 2011 at 9:07 PM, Samuel Rose <<a href="mailto:samuel.rose@gmail.com">samuel.rose@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<br>
>><br>
>> Michel, yes I thought 2030 was plausible. (stop reading this now if<br>
>> you are easily depressed). Now, I think we could see problems in even<br>
>> *less* time than that. We could see the West Antarctic Ice Sheet<br>
>> suddenly slide into the ocean, which would raise sea levels very<br>
>> quickly. Or, we could see as little as a decade long release of<br>
>> giga-tons of methane gas from the ocean floor. 55 million years ago,<br>
>> just such an event happened, according to paleoclimatologists, and it<br>
>> caused a temperature spike of 8 degrees celsius, killing 2/3 of ocean<br>
>> species. Ice ages also show evidence of rapid climate shift (even as<br>
>> little as 3 years).<br>
>><br>
>> On top of that, we can see that we are now down to about 10% of world<br>
>> fisheries<br>
>> <a href="http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2003/05/0515_030515_fishdecline.html" target="_blank">http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2003/05/0515_030515_fishdecline.html</a><br>
>> ,<br>
>><br>
>> 10% of rainforests. (next year we are projected to cross the threshold<br>
>> of 10% of rainforests and 50% of species that some believe rainforest<br>
>> ecologies can bounce back from on their own<br>
>> <a href="http://www.rainforests.net/variables.htm" target="_blank">http://www.rainforests.net/variables.htm</a> )<br>
>><br>
>> And, we are using 1 and one half of the total capacity of the earth to<br>
>> replenish itself! We have *already* exceeded the limits of growth.<br>
>> <a href="http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/GFN/page/world_footprint/" target="_blank">http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/GFN/page/world_footprint/</a><br>
>><br>
>> Plus, I think it is clear that on a worldwide bio-psyhco-social level,<br>
>> we are already seeing many areas slide into control paradigms (most<br>
>> remarkably right here in the West), while we're also seeing people<br>
>> coordinate to topple old control regimes, or broken bureaucracies.<br>
>><br>
>> What this all means to me is that we are already in serious, serious<br>
>> trouble. Yet, as we discussed in work in Future Forward Institute, and<br>
>> as we've explored here in P2P Foundation for a number of years, there<br>
>> is also plenty that is emerging as adaptation to these changes<br>
>><br>
>> On Wed, Sep 14, 2011 at 6:03 AM, Michel Bauwens<br>
>> <<a href="mailto:michel@p2pfoundation.net">michel@p2pfoundation.net</a>> wrote:<br>
>> > thanks for helping Ben, in cc, with this important question:<br>
>> ><br>
>> > < first question: Is it possible, or do you know of resources and data I<br>
>> > can<br>
>> > look at, to maintain the exponential growth the economic structures<br>
>> > require?<br>
>> > Id appreciate any other reflections or ideas you have about how this<br>
>> > relatively short-term scenario could possibly play out. ><br>
>> ><br>
>> > part of my own answer is below with recommended resources<br>
>> ><br>
>> > Ben, see<br>
>> ><br>
>> > <a href="http://blog.p2pfoundation.net/p2p-practices-as-condition-for-the-next-long-wave/2011/01/14" target="_blank">http://blog.p2pfoundation.net/p2p-practices-as-condition-for-the-next-long-wave/2011/01/14</a><br>
>> ><br>
>> > In this paper, I draw on Kondratieff wave theory and Carlota Perez to<br>
>> > describe the near and longer future scenario,<br>
>> ><br>
>> > basically:<br>
>> ><br>
>> > Sudden system shock makes previous system inoperable<br>
>> ><br>
>> > 15 years of crisis, deleveraging of debt, etc ....<br>
>> ><br>
>> > New wave based on new principles, which could/should include substantive<br>
>> > p2p<br>
>> > practices<br>
>> ><br>
>> > However, the underlying biospheric and civilisational crisis may very<br>
>> > well<br>
>> > complicate things substantially, this may very well be the last wave of<br>
>> > capitalism<br>
>> ><br>
>> > Sam, I remember you place the congruence of ecological crisis in 2030,<br>
>> > do<br>
>> > you have any sources on that?<br>
>> ><br>
>> > Michel<br>
>> ><br>
>> > ---------- Forwarded message ----------<br>
>> > From: Michel Bauwens <<a href="mailto:michel@p2pfoundation.net">michel@p2pfoundation.net</a>><br>
>> > Date: Wed, Sep 14, 2011 at 4:57 PM<br>
>> > Subject: Re: Student Paper<br>
>> > To: ben zand <<a href="mailto:benzand57@gmail.com">benzand57@gmail.com</a>><br>
>> ><br>
>> ><br>
>> > Dear Ben<br>
>> ><br>
>> > thanks for that email and I pretty much agree with your summary of the<br>
>> > world<br>
>> > situation,<br>
>> ><br>
>> > not sure though where I can find these data,<br>
>> ><br>
>> > but here is a summary by Ted Trainer:<br>
>> > <a href="http://p2pfoundation.net/Radical_Implications_of_a_Zero_Growth_Economy" target="_blank">http://p2pfoundation.net/Radical_Implications_of_a_Zero_Growth_Economy</a><br>
>> ><br>
>> > (see also below, I"m adding stuff as I think of it)<br>
>> ><br>
>> > and this is probably quite important:<br>
>> > <a href="http://p2pfoundation.net/Planetary_Boundaries" target="_blank">http://p2pfoundation.net/Planetary_Boundaries</a><br>
>> ><br>
>> > "The following points drive home the magnitude of the overshoot:<br>
>> ><br>
>> > If the 9 billion people we will have on earth within about 50 years were<br>
>> > to<br>
>> > use resources at the per capita rate of the rich countries, annual<br>
>> > resource<br>
>> > production would have to be about 8 times as great as it is now.<br>
>> > If 9 billion people were to have a North American diet we would need<br>
>> > about<br>
>> > 4.5 billion ha of cropland, but there are only 1.4 billion ha of<br>
>> > cropland on<br>
>> > the planet.<br>
>> > Water resources are scarce and dwindling. What will the situation be if<br>
>> > 9<br>
>> > billion people try to use water as we in rich countries do, while the<br>
>> > greenhouse problem reduces water resources.<br>
>> > The world�s fisheries are in serious trouble now, most of them<br>
>> > overfished<br>
>> > and in decline. What happens if 9 billion people try to eat fish at the<br>
>> > rate<br>
>> > Australian�s do now?<br>
>> > Several mineral and other resources are likely to be very scarce soon,<br>
>> > including gallium, indium, helium, and there are worries about copper,<br>
>> > zinc,<br>
>> > silver and phosphorous.<br>
>> > Oil and gas are likely to be in decline soon, and largely unavailable in<br>
>> > the<br>
>> > second half of the century. If 9 billion were to consume oil at the<br>
>> > Australian per capita rate, world demand would be about 5 times as great<br>
>> > as<br>
>> > it is now. The seriousness of this is extreme, given the heavy<br>
>> > dependence of<br>
>> > our society on liquid fuels.<br>
>> > Recent 'Footprint' analysis indicates that it takes 8 ha of productive<br>
>> > land<br>
>> > to provide water, energy, settlement area and food for one person living<br>
>> > in<br>
>> > Australia. (World Wildlife Fund, 2009.) So if 9 billion people were to<br>
>> > live<br>
>> > as we do about 72 billion ha of productive land would be needed. But<br>
>> > that is<br>
>> > about 10 times all the available productive land on the planet.<br>
>> > The most disturbing argument is to do with the greenhouse problem. It is<br>
>> > very likely that in order to stop the carbon content of the atmosphere<br>
>> > rising to dangerous levels CO2 emissions will have to be totally<br>
>> > eliminated<br>
>> > by 2050 (Hansen says 2030). (Hansen, 2009, Meinschausen et al., 2009.)<br>
>> > Geo-sequestration can�t enable this, if only because it can only capture<br>
>> > about 85% of the 50% of emissions that come from stationary sources like<br>
>> > power stations."<br>
>> ><br>
>> > some sources to check:<br>
>> ><br>
>> > <a href="http://p2pfoundation.net/Energy_Scenarios" target="_blank">http://p2pfoundation.net/Energy_Scenarios</a><br>
>> ><br>
>> > <a href="http://p2pfoundation.net/Powerdown_Scenarios" target="_blank">http://p2pfoundation.net/Powerdown_Scenarios</a><br>
>> ><br>
>> > <a href="http://p2pfoundation.net/Sustainable_Shrinkage" target="_blank">http://p2pfoundation.net/Sustainable_Shrinkage</a><br>
>> ><br>
>> > I recommend you take a look at 'overall policy frameworks', see<br>
>> ><br>
>> > Introduction:<br>
>> ><br>
>> > On the Necessity of Mediation for Economic and Social Transitions.<br>
>> > Christian<br>
>> > Arnsperger.<br>
>> > Christian Arnsperger: The Concept of Transition. [38]<br>
>> ><br>
>> > Ways to organize P2P-Commons oriented proposals in a coherent whole:<br>
>> ><br>
>> > The Five Capitals Model<br>
>> > Seven Acupuncture Points for Shifting to Capitalism 3.0. Otto Scharmer.<br>
>> > David Korten: Seven Global Sources of Dysfunction and their<br>
>> > Corresponding<br>
>> > Corrective Actions<br>
>> > Christian Arnsperger: Six Framework Conditions for Global Systemic<br>
>> > Change<br>
>> > The New Economy Working Group, with David Korten, Nine Action Clusters<br>
>> > and<br>
>> > Three Defining System Conditions<br>
>> > 11 Structural Problems of the Current World System<br>
>> ><br>
>> > That's it for today!<br>
>> ><br>
>> ><br>
>> ><br>
>> ><br>
>> ><br>
>> ><br>
>> ><br>
>> ><br>
>> ><br>
>> ><br>
>> > On Wed, Sep 14, 2011 at 12:36 AM, ben zand <<a href="mailto:benzand57@gmail.com">benzand57@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<br>
>> >><br>
>> >> Great. Again I deeply appreciate your time and efforts for humanity.<br>
>> >> And I<br>
>> >> do not expect any complete answers as I think that is beyond the scope<br>
>> >> of<br>
>> >> any one mind to comprehend with he interweaving complexities of today.<br>
>> >> I am<br>
>> >> beginning my paper by looking at the economic realities which<br>
>> >> drive�the�world and determine possibilities. Which in itself, I feel,<br>
>> >> is one<br>
>> >> of the root problems of humanity. Developed countries have become<br>
>> >> infatuated<br>
>> >> with growth and economic measures as the goals for society. This<br>
>> >> obviously<br>
>> >> isn't going to create a�benevolent�world as each country competes for<br>
>> >> exponential growth in a limited planet. Now it seems the United States,<br>
>> >> the<br>
>> >> engine and absorber, of economic growth has reached its limits<br>
>> >> of�consumption�as the population cannot service much new added debt,<br>
>> >> which<br>
>> >> allowed it to maintain this position. The globalist appear to look<br>
>> >> toward<br>
>> >> China and the developing world as the next engine after the next black<br>
>> >> swan<br>
>> >> induced market crash depresses the economy and�destabilizes�the U.S.'s<br>
>> >> position. In any plan to create new structures for the future of<br>
>> >> humanity,<br>
>> >> we must first roughly understand the environment in which they will be<br>
>> >> created and the palpability of these new possible changes.<br>
>> >> So first question: Is it possible, or do you know of resources and data<br>
>> >> I<br>
>> >> can look at, to maintain the exponential growth the economic structures<br>
>> >> require? Id appreciate any other reflections or ideas you have about<br>
>> >> how<br>
>> >> this relatively short-term scenario could possibly play out.<br>
>> >> Ben<br>
>> ><br>
>> ><br>
>><br>
>><br>
>><br>
>> --<br>
>> --<br>
>> Sam Rose<br>
>> Hollymead Capital Partners, LLC<br>
>> Cel: +1-(517)-974-6451<br>
>> email: <a href="mailto:samuel.rose@gmail.com">samuel.rose@gmail.com</a><br>
>> <a href="http://hollymeadcapital.com" target="_blank">http://hollymeadcapital.com</a><br>
>> <a href="http://p2pfoundation.net" target="_blank">http://p2pfoundation.net</a><br>
>> <a href="http://futureforwardinstitute.com" target="_blank">http://futureforwardinstitute.com</a><br>
>> <a href="http://socialmediaclassroom.com" target="_blank">http://socialmediaclassroom.com</a><br>
>><br>
>> "The universe is not required to be in perfect harmony with human<br>
>> ambition." - Carl Sagan<br>
><br>
><br>
><br>
> --<br>
> P2P Foundation: <a href="http://p2pfoundation.net" target="_blank">http://p2pfoundation.net</a>� - <a href="http://blog.p2pfoundation.net" target="_blank">http://blog.p2pfoundation.net</a><br>
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<br>
<br>
<br>
</div></div>--<br>
<div><div></div><div class="h5">--<br>
Sam Rose<br>
Hollymead Capital Partners, LLC<br>
Cel: +1-(517)-974-6451<br>
email: <a href="mailto:samuel.rose@gmail.com">samuel.rose@gmail.com</a><br>
<a href="http://hollymeadcapital.com" target="_blank">http://hollymeadcapital.com</a><br>
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<br>
"The universe is not required to be in perfect harmony with human<br>
ambition." - Carl Sagan<br>
</div></div></blockquote></div><br><br clear="all"><br>-- <br>P2P Foundation: <a href="http://p2pfoundation.net" target="_blank">http://p2pfoundation.net</a>� - <a href="http://blog.p2pfoundation.net" target="_blank">http://blog.p2pfoundation.net</a> <br>
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