[P2P-F] Fwd: IARPA Seeks Better Forecasting Software: Can We Provide Any?

Wed Aug 31 17:12:59 CEST 2011

*Open Source Indicators program*

*http://www.iarpa.gov/solicitations_osi.html*
"*IARPA’s Open Source Indicators (OSI) Program* aims to fill this gap by
developing methods for continuous, *automated analysis of publicly available
data in order to anticipate and/or detect significant societal events, such
as political crises, humanitarian crises, mass violence,  riots, mass
migrations, disease outbreaks, economic instability, resource shortages, and
responses to natural disasters.* Performers will be evaluated on the basis
of warnings that they deliver about real-world events."

"Are you a scientist or engineer with a creative idea that you think could
provide the nation with an overwhelming intelligence advantage? Do you want
the opportunity to turn your idea into a revolutionary capability? If so,
consider joining IARPA as a Program Manager." --
http://www.iarpa.gov/join.html

http://www.iarpa.gov/open_solicitations.html

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: S
Date: Tue, Aug 30, 2011 at 6:29 PM
Subject: IARPA Seeks Better Forecasting Software: Can We Provide Any?
To: global-survival at googlegroups.com

"Are you a scientist or engineer with a creative idea that you think could
provide the nation with an overwhelming intelligence advantage? Do you want
the opportunity to turn your idea into a revolutionary capability? If so,
consider joining IARPA as a Program Manager." --
http://www.iarpa.gov/join.html

http://www.iarpa.gov/open_solicitations.html

*Open Source Indicators program*

*http://www.iarpa.gov/solicitations_osi.html*<http://www.iarpa.gov/solicitations_osi.html>

Many significant societal events are preceded and/or followed by
population-level changes in communication, consumption, and movement. Some
of these changes may be indirectly observable from publicly available data,
such as web search queries, blogs, micro-blogs, internet traffic, financial
markets, traffic webcams, Wikipedia edits, and many others. Published
research has found that some of these data sources are individually useful
in the early detection of events such as disease outbreaks. But few methods
have been developed for anticipating or detecting unexpected events by
fusing publicly available data of multiple types from multiple sources.

IARPA’s Open Source Indicators (OSI) Program aims to fill this gap by
developing methods for continuous, automated analysis of publicly available
data in order to anticipate and/or detect significant societal events, such
as political crises, humanitarian crises, mass violence, riots, mass
migrations, disease outbreaks, economic instability, resource shortages, and
responses to natural disasters. Performers will be evaluated on the basis of
warnings that they deliver about real-world events.

Required technical innovations include: development of methods that leverage
population behavior change in anticipation of, and in response to, events of
interest; processing of publicly available data that reflect those
population behavior changes; development of data extraction techniques that
focus on volume, rather than depth, by identifying shallow features of data
that correlate with events; development of multivariate time series models
robust to non-stationary, noisy data to reveal patterns that precede events;
and innovative use of statistical methods to fuse combinations of time
series for generating probabilistic warnings of events. If successful, OSI
methods will “beat the news” by fusing early indicators of events from
multiple publicly available data sources and types.
Proposers' Day Briefings

   - OSI Overview<http://www.iarpa.gov/OSI_Presentations/OSI_Overview_Briefing.pdf>
   - IARPA Overview<http://www.iarpa.gov/OSI_Presentations/IARPA_Overview_Brief_August_2011.pdf>
   - Contracting
Brief<http://www.iarpa.gov/OSI_Presentations/Contracting_Officer_Presentation.pdf>
   - Contracting Agent
Overview<http://www.iarpa.gov/OSI_Presentations/DOI_NBC_OSI_Proposers_Day_Presentation.pdf>
   - UCSD<http://www.iarpa.gov/OSI_Presentations/1_OSI_proposers_Day_Presentation_Elkan.pdf>
   - UIUC<http://www.iarpa.gov/OSI_Presentations/2_OSI_Proposers_day_Presentation_Nardulli.pdf>
   - Harvard<http://www.iarpa.gov/OSI_Presentations/3_OSI_proposers_Day_Presentation_Harvard.pdf>
   - MIT<http://www.iarpa.gov/OSI_Presentations/4_OSI_proposers_Day_Presentation_Gloor.pdf>
   - Seatuket<http://www.iarpa.gov/OSI_Presentations/5_OSI_proposers_Day_Presentation_SETCOM.pdf>
   - NMT<http://www.iarpa.gov/OSI_Presentations/6_OSI_proposers_Day_Presentation_Glass.pdf>
   - SSA<http://www.iarpa.gov/OSI_Presentations/7_OSI_proposers_Day_Presentation_SSA.pdf>
   - Mercyhurst<http://www.iarpa.gov/OSI_Presentations/8_OSI_proposers_Day_Presentation_Mercyhurst.pdf>
   - Ascel Bio<http://www.iarpa.gov/OSI_Presentations/9_OSI_proposers_Day_Presentation_Ascel_Bio_LLC.pdf>
   - Omnis<http://www.iarpa.gov/OSI_Presentations/10_OSI_Proposers_Day_Presentation_Omnis.pdf>
   - Logos<http://www.iarpa.gov/OSI_Presentations/11_OSI_proposers_Day_Presentation_Logos.pdf>
   - Recorded Future<http://www.iarpa.gov/OSI_Presentations/12_OSI_proposers_Day_Presentation_Recorded_Future.pdf>
   - Centra<http://www.iarpa.gov/OSI_Presentations/13_OSI_proposers_Day_Presentation_CENTRA.pdf>
   - Penn State<http://www.iarpa.gov/OSI_Presentations/14_OSI_proposers_Day_Presentation_PSU.pdf>
   - USC<http://www.iarpa.gov/OSI_Presentations/15_OSI_proposers_Day_Presentation_ISI.pdf>

Proposers' Day Posters

   - Bharti<http://www.iarpa.gov/OSI_Presentations/Posters/Bharti_OSI_Proposers_Day_Poster.pdf>
   - inTTensity<http://www.iarpa.gov/OSI_Presentations/Posters/inTTensity_Poster.pdf>
   - Mercyhurst<http://www.iarpa.gov/OSI_Presentations/Posters/Mercyhurst_OSI_poster_72511.pdf>
   - Carnegie Mellon<http://www.iarpa.gov/OSI_Presentations/Posters/OSI_Proposers_Day_Poster_Carley_Carnegie_Mellon_2011-big.pdf>
   - MIT<http://www.iarpa.gov/OSI_Presentations/Posters/OSI_Proposers_Day_Poster_Gloor.pdf>
   - NSF Cake<http://www.iarpa.gov/OSI_Presentations/Posters/IUCRC-CAKE_OSI_Proposers_Day_Poster-24x36.pdf>

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