<div><meta http-equiv="content-type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"><p><u><font size="4">Open Source Indicators program</font></u></p><p><strong><a href="http://www.iarpa.gov/solicitations_osi.html" target="_blank">http://www.iarpa.gov/solicitations_osi.html</a></strong></p>
</div>"<meta http-equiv="content-type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"><b>IARPA’s Open Source Indicators (OSI) Program</b> aims to fill this gap by developing methods for continuous, <b>automated analysis of publicly available data in order to anticipate and/or detect significant societal events, such as political crises, humanitarian crises, mass violence, riots, mass migrations, disease outbreaks, economic instability, resource shortages, and responses to natural disasters.</b> Performers will be evaluated on the basis of warnings that they deliver about real-world events."<div>
<br></div><div><meta http-equiv="content-type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"><p><br class="Apple-interchange-newline">"Are you a scientist or engineer with a creative idea that you think could provide the nation with an overwhelming intelligence advantage? Do you want the opportunity to turn your idea into a revolutionary capability? If so, consider joining IARPA as a Program Manager." -- <a href="http://www.iarpa.gov/join.html" target="_blank">http://www.iarpa.gov/join.html</a></p>
<p></p><p></p><p style="margin-left: 40px; "><a href="http://www.iarpa.gov/open_solicitations.html" target="_blank">http://www.iarpa.gov/open_solicitations.html</a></p><br><div class="gmail_quote">---------- Forwarded message ----------<br>
From: <b class="gmail_sendername">S</b><br>Date: Tue, Aug 30, 2011 at 6:29 PM<br>Subject: IARPA Seeks Better Forecasting Software: Can We Provide Any?<br>To: <a href="mailto:global-survival@googlegroups.com">global-survival@googlegroups.com</a><br>
<br><br><p>"Are you a scientist or engineer with a creative idea that you think
could provide the nation with an overwhelming intelligence advantage?
Do you want the opportunity to turn your idea into a revolutionary
capability? If so, consider joining IARPA as a Program Manager." -- <a href="http://www.iarpa.gov/join.html" target="_blank">http://www.iarpa.gov/join.html</a></p><p></p><p></p><p style="margin-left:40px"><a href="http://www.iarpa.gov/open_solicitations.html" target="_blank">http://www.iarpa.gov/open_solicitations.html</a></p>
<p><u><font size="4">Open Source Indicators program</font></u><br></p><p><a href="http://www.iarpa.gov/solicitations_osi.html" target="_blank"><strong>http://www.iarpa.gov/solicitations_osi.html</strong></a></p>
<p>
Many significant societal events are preceded and/or followed by
population-level changes in communication, consumption, and movement.
Some of these changes may be indirectly observable from publicly
available data, such as web search queries, blogs, micro-blogs, internet
traffic, financial markets, traffic webcams, Wikipedia edits, and many
others. Published research has found that some of these data sources are
individually useful in the early detection of events such as disease
outbreaks. But few methods have been developed for anticipating or
detecting unexpected events by fusing publicly available data of
multiple types from multiple sources.
</p>
<p>
IARPA’s Open Source Indicators (OSI) Program aims to fill this gap by
developing methods for continuous, automated analysis of publicly
available data in order to anticipate and/or detect significant societal
events, such as political crises, humanitarian crises, mass violence,
riots, mass migrations, disease outbreaks, economic instability,
resource shortages, and responses to natural disasters. Performers will
be evaluated on the basis of warnings that they deliver about real-world
events.
</p>
<p>
Required technical innovations include: development of methods that
leverage population behavior change in anticipation of, and in response
to, events of interest; processing of publicly available data that
reflect those population behavior changes; development of data
extraction techniques that focus on volume, rather than depth, by
identifying shallow features of data that correlate with events;
development of multivariate time series models robust to non-stationary,
noisy data to reveal patterns that precede events; and innovative use
of statistical methods to fuse combinations of time series for
generating probabilistic warnings of events. If successful, OSI methods
will “beat the news” by fusing early indicators of events from multiple
publicly available data sources and types. <br></p><h3>Proposers' Day Briefings</h3>
<ul><li><a href="http://www.iarpa.gov/OSI_Presentations/OSI_Overview_Briefing.pdf" target="_blank">OSI Overview</a>
</li><li><a href="http://www.iarpa.gov/OSI_Presentations/IARPA_Overview_Brief_August_2011.pdf" target="_blank">IARPA Overview</a>
</li><li><a href="http://www.iarpa.gov/OSI_Presentations/Contracting_Officer_Presentation.pdf" target="_blank">Contracting Brief</a>
</li><li><a href="http://www.iarpa.gov/OSI_Presentations/DOI_NBC_OSI_Proposers_Day_Presentation.pdf" target="_blank">Contracting Agent Overview</a>
</li><li><a href="http://www.iarpa.gov/OSI_Presentations/1_OSI_proposers_Day_Presentation_Elkan.pdf" target="_blank">UCSD</a>
</li><li><a href="http://www.iarpa.gov/OSI_Presentations/2_OSI_Proposers_day_Presentation_Nardulli.pdf" target="_blank">UIUC</a>
</li><li><a href="http://www.iarpa.gov/OSI_Presentations/3_OSI_proposers_Day_Presentation_Harvard.pdf" target="_blank">Harvard</a>
</li><li><a href="http://www.iarpa.gov/OSI_Presentations/4_OSI_proposers_Day_Presentation_Gloor.pdf" target="_blank">MIT</a>
</li><li><a href="http://www.iarpa.gov/OSI_Presentations/5_OSI_proposers_Day_Presentation_SETCOM.pdf" target="_blank">Seatuket</a>
</li><li><a href="http://www.iarpa.gov/OSI_Presentations/6_OSI_proposers_Day_Presentation_Glass.pdf" target="_blank">NMT</a>
</li><li><a href="http://www.iarpa.gov/OSI_Presentations/7_OSI_proposers_Day_Presentation_SSA.pdf" target="_blank">SSA</a>
</li><li><a href="http://www.iarpa.gov/OSI_Presentations/8_OSI_proposers_Day_Presentation_Mercyhurst.pdf" target="_blank">Mercyhurst</a>
</li><li><a href="http://www.iarpa.gov/OSI_Presentations/9_OSI_proposers_Day_Presentation_Ascel_Bio_LLC.pdf" target="_blank">Ascel Bio</a>
</li><li><a href="http://www.iarpa.gov/OSI_Presentations/10_OSI_Proposers_Day_Presentation_Omnis.pdf" target="_blank">Omnis</a>
</li><li><a href="http://www.iarpa.gov/OSI_Presentations/11_OSI_proposers_Day_Presentation_Logos.pdf" target="_blank">Logos</a>
</li><li><a href="http://www.iarpa.gov/OSI_Presentations/12_OSI_proposers_Day_Presentation_Recorded_Future.pdf" target="_blank">Recorded Future</a>
</li><li><a href="http://www.iarpa.gov/OSI_Presentations/13_OSI_proposers_Day_Presentation_CENTRA.pdf" target="_blank">Centra</a>
</li><li><a href="http://www.iarpa.gov/OSI_Presentations/14_OSI_proposers_Day_Presentation_PSU.pdf" target="_blank">Penn State</a>
</li><li><a href="http://www.iarpa.gov/OSI_Presentations/15_OSI_proposers_Day_Presentation_ISI.pdf" target="_blank">USC</a>
</li></ul>
<h3>Proposers' Day Posters</h3>
<ul><li><a href="http://www.iarpa.gov/OSI_Presentations/Posters/Bharti_OSI_Proposers_Day_Poster.pdf" target="_blank">Bharti</a>
</li><li><a href="http://www.iarpa.gov/OSI_Presentations/Posters/inTTensity_Poster.pdf" target="_blank">inTTensity</a>
</li><li><a href="http://www.iarpa.gov/OSI_Presentations/Posters/Mercyhurst_OSI_poster_72511.pdf" target="_blank">Mercyhurst</a>
</li><li><a href="http://www.iarpa.gov/OSI_Presentations/Posters/OSI_Proposers_Day_Poster_Carley_Carnegie_Mellon_2011-big.pdf" target="_blank">Carnegie Mellon</a>
</li><li><a href="http://www.iarpa.gov/OSI_Presentations/Posters/OSI_Proposers_Day_Poster_Gloor.pdf" target="_blank">MIT</a>
</li><li><a href="http://www.iarpa.gov/OSI_Presentations/Posters/IUCRC-CAKE_OSI_Proposers_Day_Poster-24x36.pdf" target="_blank">NSF Cake</a>
</li></ul>
<p></p>
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