Dear Ben, I hope you don't mind sharing your conversation, as it might generate more 'collective intelligence' and resources. your ideas are very close to those of the p2p community, for the idea of relocalization production, I think you could have a very productive conversation with Sam Rose, you may also want to connect with the Open Manufacturing mailing list (a bit too technical for me, but perhaps more useful to you). See also: http://p2pfoundation.net/Category:Manufacturing and http://p2pfoundation.net/Product_Hacking for more info, and even more: http://delicious.com/mbauwens/P2P-Manufacturing and http://delicious.com/mbauwens/P2P-Hardware. Interesting initiatives that come to mind are Open Source Ecology, Appropedia, and a recent good example, the Nutrient Dense Project. This is now not just an 'idea', but an already active frontier! Kevin Carson has written the best book for far on local manufacturing, the Homebrew Revolution. The money situation is very complex, with some successes, many failures and a plethora of projects in between, see http://p2pfoundation.net/Category:Money. I recommend reading Thomas Greco's latest book on this, especially for local credit commons, but it is a sprawling field and I'm not confident about what will work in this area. I like Bernard Lietaer integrative position on four levels of intervention which includes the global, and Ellen Brown, because her policy proposals are immediately applicable to countries in crisis (so thomas = local, Ellen = national, lietaer = global). Most advanced thinking is from the metacurrency project and jean-francois noubel, but I'm not sure they have anything actually actionable. Bitcoin works but is very problematic in its scarcity-based design. In general, it's good to learn to distinguish mere distribution of capitalist practice (more players, more participation, but the same game) and distributed projects that really change the rules of the game. On Thu, Sep 15, 2011 at 12:36 PM, ben zand <[email protected]> wrote:

Wow, I did not expect such a comprehensive reply. It has greatly helped my research, paper, and vision for the future. I personally see a conflict brewing between the economic elite who will fight to death to maintain power and the populous base who make up the productive economy. While they may win in the short term with plans to take advantage of the shocks that the end cycle of our current paradigm produce. But I believe they can only restrict human potential so much before it breaks free and tries to creates a better world for itself. With the mass production/distribution likely facing severe interruptions in the coming years, I see a whole layout of possibilities for economic life to again be the directive and part of the individual. Personally, I am studying for a degree in engineering to focus on the best ways to socialize production and return it to the local level. Of course, this cannot be done with all aspects of a complex modern economy but if a community has a base of production, it is not beholden to outside interests and only deals with them if it is in mutual cooperation and benefit. This may be a bit idealistic but we need to have some vision toward which we are working for instead of this fascination with growth and materialism. I believe this base should include at least some food production, flexible manufacturing capacity to take advantage of local resources and produce as much is practical within the area.

So I am interested if you have any thoughts, or can point me toward leaders in this area, on the lowest hanging fruit and easiest markets to localize. Also, any tools or organizations that you think are most needed. Of course a modular system for local currencies which can be adopted with ease to the needs of each community seems to be the most important to accelerate this movement. But there needs to be more to organize the new local producers into networks within and across the global and most importantly to educate about the means to reach the end goal.

On Wed, Sep 14, 2011 at 6:03 AM, Michel Bauwens <[email protected]>wrote:

...

thanks for helping Ben, in cc, with this important question:

< first question: Is it possible, or do you know of resources and data I can look at, to maintain the exponential growth the economic structures require? Id appreciate any other reflections or ideas you have about how this relatively short-term scenario could possibly play out. >

part of my own answer is below with recommended resources

Ben, see http://blog.p2pfoundation.net/p2p-practices-as-condition-for-the-next-long-w...

In this paper, I draw on Kondratieff wave theory and Carlota Perez to describe the near and longer future scenario,

basically:

Sudden system shock makes previous system inoperable

15 years of crisis, deleveraging of debt, etc ....

New wave based on new principles, which could/should include substantive p2p practices

However, the underlying biospheric and civilisational crisis may very well complicate things substantially, this may very well be the last wave of capitalism

Sam, I remember you place the congruence of ecological crisis in 2030, do you have any sources on that?

Michel

---------- Forwarded message ---------- From: Michel Bauwens <[email protected]> Date: Wed, Sep 14, 2011 at 4:57 PM Subject: Re: Student Paper To: ben zand <[email protected]>

Dear Ben

thanks for that email and I pretty much agree with your summary of the world situation,

not sure though where I can find these data,

but here is a summary by Ted Trainer: http://p2pfoundation.net/Radical_Implications_of_a_Zero_Growth_Economy

(see also below, I"m adding stuff as I think of it)

and this is probably quite important: http://p2pfoundation.net/Planetary_Boundaries

"The following points drive home the magnitude of the overshoot:* *

1. *If the 9 billion people we will have on earth within about 50 years were to use resources at the per capita rate of the rich countries, annual resource production would have to be about 8 times as great as it is now. * 2. * If 9 billion people were to have a North American diet we would need about 4.5 billion ha of cropland, but there are only 1.4 billionha of cropland on the planet. * 3. * Water resources are scarce and dwindling. What will the situation be if 9 billion people try to use water as we in rich countries do, while the greenhouse problem reduces water resources. * 4. * The world’s fisheries are in serious trouble now, most of them overfished and in decline. What happens if 9 billion people try to eat fish at the rate Australian’s do now? * 5. * Several mineral and other resources are likely to be very scarce soon, including gallium, indium, helium, and there are worries about copper, zinc, silver and phosphorous. * 6. * Oil and gas are likely to be in decline soon, and largely unavailable in the second half of the century. If 9 billion were to consume oil at the Australian per capita rate, world demand would be about 5 times as great as it is now. The seriousness of this is extreme, given the heavy dependence of our society on liquid fuels. * 7. * Recent 'Footprint' analysis indicates that it takes 8 ha of productive land to provide water, energy, settlement area and food for one person living in Australia. (World Wildlife Fund, 2009.) So if 9 billion people were to live as we do about 72 billion ha of productive land would be needed. But that is about 10 times all the available productive land on the planet. * 8. * The most disturbing argument is to do with the greenhouse problem. It is very likely that in order to stop the carbon content of the atmosphere rising to dangerous levels CO2 emissions will have to be totally eliminated by 2050 (Hansen says 2030). (Hansen, 2009, Meinschausen et al., 2009.) Geo-sequestration can’t enable this, if only because it can only capture about 85% of the 50% of emissions that come from stationary sources like power stations."*

some sources to check:

http://p2pfoundation.net/Energy_Scenarios

http://p2pfoundation.net/Powerdown_Scenarios

http://p2pfoundation.net/Sustainable_Shrinkage

I recommend you take a look at 'overall policy frameworks', see

Introduction:

- On the Necessity of Mediation for Economic and Social Transitions<http://p2pfoundation.net/On_the_Necessity_of_Mediation_for_Economic_and_Social_Transitions>. Christian Arnsperger. - Christian Arnsperger <http://p2pfoundation.net/Christian_Arnsperger>: The Concept of Transition<http://p2pfoundation.net/Concept_of_Transition>. [38]<http://eco-transitions.blogspot.com/2011/04/why-transition-first-look-at-concepts.html>

Ways to organize P2P-Commons oriented proposals in a coherent whole:

1. The Five Capitals Model<http://p2pfoundation.net/Five_Capitals_Model> 2. Seven Acupuncture Points for Shifting to Capitalism 3.0<http://www.ottoscharmer.com/docs/articles/2009_SevenAcupuncturePoints5.pdf>. Otto Scharmer. 3. David Korten: Seven Global Sources of Dysfunction and their Corresponding Corrective Actions<http://p2pfoundation.net/Seven_Global_Sources_of_Dysfunction_and_their_Corresponding_Corrective_Actions> 4. Christian Arnsperger: Six Framework Conditions for Global Systemic Change<http://p2pfoundation.net/Six_Framework_Conditions_for_Global_Systemic_Change> 5. The New Economy Working Group<http://p2pfoundation.net/New_Economy_Working_Group>, with David Korten<http://p2pfoundation.net/Category:Policy?title=David_Korten&action=edit&redlink=1>, Nine Action Clusters<http://neweconomyworkinggroup.org/about-us/ten-action-clusters>and Three Defining System Conditions<http://neweconomyworkinggroup.org/about-us/our-working-premise> 6. 11 Structural Problems of the Current World System<http://p2pfoundation.net/11_Structural_Problems_of_the_Current_World_System>

That's it for today!

On Wed, Sep 14, 2011 at 12:36 AM, ben zand <[email protected]> wrote:

...

Great. Again I deeply appreciate your time and efforts for humanity. And I do not expect any complete answers as I think that is beyond the scope of any one mind to comprehend with he interweaving complexities of today. I am beginning my paper by looking at the economic realities which drive the world and determine possibilities. Which in itself, I feel, is one of the root problems of humanity. Developed countries have become infatuated with growth and economic measures as the goals for society. This obviously isn't going to create a benevolent world as each country competes for exponential growth in a limited planet. Now it seems the United States, the engine and absorber, of economic growth has reached its limits of consumption as the population cannot service much new added debt, which allowed it to maintain this position. The globalist appear to look toward China and the developing world as the next engine after the next black swan induced market crash depresses the economy and destabilizes the U.S.'s position. In any plan to create new structures for the future of humanity, we must first roughly understand the environment in which they will be created and the palpability of these new possible changes.

So first question: Is it possible, or do you know of resources and data I can look at, to maintain the exponential growth the economic structures require? Id appreciate any other reflections or ideas you have about how this relatively short-term scenario could possibly play out.

Ben

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