On Wed, Jan 19, 2011 at 11:58 PM, Michel Bauwens <[email protected]> wrote:
The instability of large, complex societies is a predictable phenomenon, according to a new mathematical model that explores the emergence of early human societies via warfare. Capturing hundreds of years of human history, the model reveals the dynamical nature of societies, which can be difficult to uncover in archaeological data.
The article: http://escholarship.org/uc/item/5536t55r#page-1 "Abstract: Warfare is commonly viewed as a driving force of the process of aggregation of initially independent villages into larger and more complex political units that started several thousand years ago and quickly lead to the appearance of chiefdoms, states, and empires. Here we build on extensions and generalizations of Carneiro’s (1970) argument to develop a spatially explicit agent-based model of the emergence of early complex societies via warfare. In our model polities are represented as hierarchically structured networks of villages whose size, power, and complexity change as a result of conquest, secession, internal reorganization (via promotion and linearization), and resource dynamics. A general prediction of our model is continuous stochastic cycling in which the growth of individual polities in size, wealth/power, and complexity is interrupted by their quick collapse. The model dynamics are mostly controlled by two parameters, one of which scales the relative advantage of wealthier polities in between and within-polity conflicts, and the other is the chief’s expected time in power. Our results demonstrate that the stability of large and complex polities is strongly promoted if the outcomes of the conflicts are mostly determined by the polities’ wealth/power, if there exist well-defined and accepted means of succession, and if control mechanisms are internally specialized."
Note: I'm reading collapse by jared diamond, which I found a very disappointing book, not in terms of historical narrative, which is always interesting, but in terms of the very weak causal analysis .. you end up with the feeling, yeah, some societies collapse, shit happens, and some don't, but no discernible method or propositions to get us out of this mess ..
Towards the end, Diamond discusses his ideas for how to avoid collapse. I think that at least the problems that he discusses from the historical surveys and narratives offers a suggestion: The problem of collapse in societies is a "situational" problem. Different conditions in different areas lead to societal collapse. But, there are recurring patterns we can look for. An example is the Viking unwillingness to adopt inuit food sources (seal, fish, etc) and techniques in Greenland, which could have kept them at least physically alive in perpetuity. The lesson from Easter Island not to cut down all of your trees. The lesson from Rawanda that in certain conditions, when population outstrips food supply it can lead to really undesirable outcomes. My takeaway from "Collapse" is that we need foresight applied that can match local conditions, and mapping/exposing choices for people that will transition them away from the choices that lead to collapse.
Michel -- P2P Foundation: http://p2pfoundation.net - http://blog.p2pfoundation.net
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-- -- Sam Rose Future Forward Institute and Forward Foundation Tel:+1(517) 639-1552 Cel: +1-(517)-974-6451 skype: samuelrose email: [email protected] http://forwardfound.org http://futureforwardinstitute.org http://hollymeadcapital.com http://p2pfoundation.net http://socialmediaclassroom.com "The universe is not required to be in perfect harmony with human ambition." - Carl Sagan