---------- Forwarded message ---------- From: jose ramos <[email protected]> Date: Tue, May 31, 2011 at 1:09 PM Subject: Invitation to contribute to Journal of Futures Studies symposium on Global Mega Crisis To: Michel Bauwens <[email protected]> Hi Michel JFS is running a symposium on "Global Mega Crisis" jose ------------------------------------- "Global Mega Crisis" describes the dramatic challenges that humanity faces at the moment. Michael and Bill have developed a "Survey of Four Scenarios on a Pessimism-Optimism Axis" built around a number of emerging issues and trends. The symposium, through the Journal of Futures Studies, will help develop a stronger shared analysis and understanding of the challenges humanity faces at the moment, by eliciting short essay responses from a variety of people and perspectives. Please see our invitation overview below. I've attached Bill and Michael's article in pdf format. I have also included a pdf version of the invitation for your reference. I hope you will consider joining our debate. Yours Jose ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- FROM: Michael Marien, William Halal, and Jose Ramos RE: Invitation to respond to “Global MegaCrisis: Four Scenarios on the Future of Progress” Special Issue, Journal of Futures Studies, Dec 2011 INTRODUCTION The fundamental question in serious futures-thinking has to do with the idea of human progress. All matters considered, will life be better for humanity as a whole, for countries and organizations, for communities and families, and for individuals in the decades ahead? Until the past decade or so, progress was widely assumed. But in recent years this assumption has become problematic. The Great Recession, still unfolding in some places, has dampened prospects for many. The multiple threats of global climate change and more extreme weather events darken the long-range horizon. World population continues to grow, despite a declining rate of growth, and food, water, and energy issues are emerging. Political polarization and gridlock appears widespread. On the positive side, many new technologies are emerging that can potentially alleviate if not “solve” some if not many of these problems. So, overall, should we be very negative about future prospects, largely negative, largely positive, or very positive? The two authors of the lead essay have engaged in a public debate on this question over the past two years. We both agree that a “Global MegaCrisis” is emerging, if not yet entirely here for all areas of the world. We disagree as to the outlook: Halal believes that new technology will probably make things better; Marien argues that it is possible but not likely, too little too late. After exchanging several long e-mails, we published our first version of this debate in World Future Review (1:5, Oct-Nov 2009). A second and more popularized version appeared in The Futurist (45:3, May-June 2011). A third version appeared in World Affairs: The Journal of International Issues, 2011. This version refines our dispute and adds some new references. Similar to the other versions, it seeks to engage readers in discussion and debate through the device of four scenarios on a single axis of pessimism and optimism. By quantifying the rough probabilities of the four scenarios, one can easily see where one stands in relation to others on this scale. But then one must ask if the arguments for the assigned probabilities are persuasive. And many arguments can and should be made for each scenario. The value of this exercise is not only to put the idea of progress on center stage, where it rightly belongs, but to encourage reflection on the two more complex middle scenarios (the largely negative “Muddling Down” and the largely positive “Muddling Up”), rather than the extreme negative position (of widespread disaster, Armageddon, species extinction, all-out nuclear war, or collapse of capitalism in all forms) or the extreme positive position (often implicit, but made explicit by those advocating the technological Singularity and/or widespread change of consciousness). The Journal of Futures Studies is inviting a number of distinguished futurists and other futures-oriented thinkers, as well as several students, to ponder these scenarios. The only caveats are that each respondent must: 1) Stay within a limit of between 500 and 1,000 words; 2) Quantify (% wise) the likelihood of each of the four scenarios over the next decade and provide some argument in support of the position taken; or provide a short argument why you chose to not quantify, or your argument against the approach taken in this special issue (or possible argument for an alternative); 3) Submit your response by September 10th 2011 to give W. Halal and M. Marien time to formulate a conclusion. Email response to: [email protected] ; 4) Format your contribution using JFS editorial guidelines: http://www.jfs.tku.edu.tw/invauthors.html . Halal and Marien will attempt to briefly respond to most or all of these comments. And maybe, as events in our age of turmoil, uncertainty, and multiple transformations unfold over the next few years, we might try this exercise again. About the Special Editors Michael Marien edited Future Survey for the World Futures Society for 30 years, preparing some 21,000 abstracts, and is now embarking on establishing the website: GlobalForesightBooks.org, which is broader and more timely than Future Survey, albeit not as deep. GFB.org now has some 2500 mini-abstracts of futures-relevant books published since early 2009, and long "Book of the Month" abstracts, most of which underlie his emerging worldview. Michael Marien describes himself as a “biophilic post-Unitarian nondenominational social scientist who hangs out with futurists.” He has a (1970) Ph.D. in Social Science and National Planning, and is a Fellow of the World Academy of Art and Science. William E. Halal (Ph.D.) is professor emeritus of management, technology, and innovation at George Washington University (GWU), with degrees from Purdue and UC Berkeley. He has published 7 books and hundreds of articles, consults to corporations and governments, and is a frequent speaker, once substituting for Peter Drucker. Halal is also president of TechCast LLC – a virtual think tank tracking the technology revolution. TechCast was cited by the National Academies as one of the best forecasting systems available, and has been featured in the Washington Post, Newsweek, and other publications. Halal also co-founded the GWU Institute for Knowledge & Innovation. Previously, he served as a major in the Air Force, worked as an aerospace engineer on the Apollo Program and as a manager in Silicon Valley. He received the 1977 Mitchell Prize for his article “Beyond the Profit-Motive,” and was cited by the Encyclopedia of the Future as one of the top 100 futurists in the world. ------------- -- P2P Foundation: http://p2pfoundation.net - http://blog.p2pfoundation.net Connect: http://p2pfoundation.ning.com; Discuss: http://lists.ourproject.org/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/p2p-foundation Updates: http://del.icio.us/mbauwens; http://friendfeed.com/mbauwens; http://twitter.com/mbauwens; http://www.facebook.com/mbauwens