<div dir="ltr"><br><br><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr">---------- Forwarded message ---------<br>From: <strong class="gmail_sendername" dir="auto">Ryan Fortune</strong> <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:ryan.fortune@uct.ac.za">ryan.fortune@uct.ac.za</a>></span><br>Date: Fri, Jan 11, 2019 at 11:42 AM<br>Subject: MEDIA RELEASE: Cape Town drought made 3 times more likely by climate change, scientists report - 11 January 2019<br>To: Ryan Fortune <<a href="mailto:ryan.fortune@uct.ac.za">ryan.fortune@uct.ac.za</a>><br></div><br><br>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span style="font-size:18.0pt;line-height:106%;font-family:"Lato",sans-serif">MEDIA RELEASE<u></u><u></u></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:115%"><strong><span style="font-size:18.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Lato",sans-serif">Cape Town drought made 3 times more likely by climate change, scientists report</span></strong><strong><span style="font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif"><u></u><u></u></span></strong></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:115%"><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Lato",sans-serif">Cape Town, 11 January 2019</span></b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Lato",sans-serif"> – Man-made climate
change and its effect on rainfall made the drought in South Africa’s Western Cape province over the past few years about three times more likely, according to the latest study by a group of international climate scientists. <br>
<br>
Working under the auspices of </span><a href="https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/" target="_blank"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Lato",sans-serif">World Weather Attribution (WWA)</span></a><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Lato",sans-serif">,
the scientists report that all the climate models used in their study show the likelihood of droughts like the current one going back to 2015, although still very rare, will increase with further warming.</span><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:115%"><u></u><u></u></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:115%"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Lato",sans-serif">The team looked at data for the Western Cape region which contains the dams and reservoirs providing water for Cape Town and surrounding
farmland. <u></u><u></u></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:115%"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Lato",sans-serif">The main factor behind the drought and the consequent water shortage was below-average rainfall rather than surface evaporation caused
by high atmospheric temperatures. <br>
<br>
“This drought is still a rare event in the current climate, but our results suggest the risk is changing and that it’s important to improve resilience to drought,” said
</span><a href="http://www.csag.uct.ac.za/author/pwolski/" target="_blank"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Lato",sans-serif">Piotr Wolski</span></a><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Lato",sans-serif">, a
researcher at the University of Cape Town, co-author of the study. “People’s taps did not run dry and the feared ‘Day Zero’ emergency has been narrowly averted for the moment, due to public’s adherence to water restrictions and at the cost of switching off
supplies for irrigation. But this was clearly not a sustainable solution.”<br>
<br>
</span><a href="https://www.eci.ox.ac.uk/people/fotto.html" target="_blank"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Lato",sans-serif">Friederike Otto</span></a><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Lato",sans-serif">,
lead-author of the study and acting director at the Environmental Change Institute at Oxford University, adds: “These results and the generally increased likelihood of drought is in line with our general understanding of what climate change means for semi-arid
regions like Southern Africa; preparing for more of the same would be wise.”<u></u><u></u></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:115%"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Lato",sans-serif">Studies cited by the WWA group say the Western Cape drought was the worst almost since the beginning of the 20th century.<u></u><u></u></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:115%"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Lato",sans-serif">The dams that supply Cape Town are entirely dependent on rainfall, making the system vulnerable to climatic variability and change, although
it’s designed to cope with droughts that might occur once every 50 years on average.<u></u><u></u></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:115%"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Lato",sans-serif">Overall, the current crisis was found to be a 1-in-150-year event for the Western Cape Region, but – the team believe – more acute local
variations particularly affecting the dams’ actual catchment areas could make this at least a 1-in-300 year event for the municipal water supply.<u></u><u></u></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:115%"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Lato",sans-serif">Last year some 33,000 seasonal farm-labourers lost work because of the drought.<br>
<br>
"Cape Town’s drought teaches us that climate change is not a thing of a distant future: it's happening already and impacts us today," says
</span><a href="http://www.acdi.uct.ac.za/acdi/core-team/professor-mark-new" target="_blank"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Lato",sans-serif">Professor Mark New</span></a><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Lato",sans-serif">,
director of the </span><a href="http://www.acdi.uct.ac.za" target="_blank"><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Lato",sans-serif">African Climate & Development Initiative</span></a><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Lato",sans-serif">
(ACDI) at the University of Cape Town. "We are running out of time to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and more importantly, we can no longer postpone taking precautionary and adaptive actions."<u></u><u></u></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:115%"><strong><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Lato",sans-serif">Read the full paper
</span></strong><a href="http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aae9f9/meta" target="_blank"><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Lato",sans-serif">here</span></b></a><strong><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Lato",sans-serif">.</span></strong><strong><span style="font-family:"Calibri",sans-serif"><u></u><u></u></span></strong></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:115%"><strong><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Lato",sans-serif">Find the technical summary </span></strong><a href="https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/analyses/the-role-of-climate-change-in-the-2015-2017-drought-in-the-western-cape-of-south-africa/" target="_blank"><b><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Lato",sans-serif">here</span></b></a><strong><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Lato",sans-serif">.</span></strong><strong><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Lato",sans-serif;font-weight:normal"><u></u><u></u></span></strong></p>
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Development Initiative (ACDI)</span></span></a><span style="font-size:10.0pt;line-height:115%"><u></u><u></u></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height:115%"><strong><span style="font-size:10.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Lato",sans-serif;color:#333333;font-weight:normal">The African Climate & Development Initiative (ACDI) is the University of Cape Town’s collective
response to the challenge of climate change in the context of sustainable development in Africa.
</span></strong><span style="font-size:10.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Lato",sans-serif;color:#333333">ACDI is an inter- and transdisciplinary research and training Institute that brings together academics across UCT and beyond, NGOs, business, civil society
and government to co-produce and test new insights, evidence and innovations that will help to solve Africa's climate and development challenges.
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<span style="font-size:10.0pt;line-height:115%;font-family:"Lato",sans-serif;color:#444444">World Weather Attribution (WWA) is an international effort to analyse and communicate the possible influence of climate change on extreme
weather events, such as storms, extreme rainfall, heatwaves, cold spells, and droughts. Recognising society’s interest in reducing the human, economic, and environmental costs of weather-related disasters, WWA delivers timely and scientifically reliable information
on how extreme weather may be affected by climate change. WWA was initiated in late 2014 after the scientific community concluded that the emerging science of extreme event attribution could be operationalised.</span><u></u><u></u></p>
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