<div dir="ltr"><br><div class="gmail_quote">---------- Forwarded message ----------<br>From: <b class="gmail_sendername">Bob Reuschlein</b> <span dir="ltr">&lt;<a href="mailto:bobreuschlein@gmail.com">bobreuschlein@gmail.com</a>&gt;</span><br>Date: Sun, Dec 13, 2015 at 8:03 AM<br>Subject: Why Syria is Such a Quagmire<br>To: <a href="mailto:wnpj-anti-militarism@googlegroups.com">wnpj-anti-militarism@googlegroups.com</a><br><br><br><div dir="ltr"><span title="2015-12-11" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 10px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;text-transform:uppercase;letter-spacing:1px;font-family:Helvetica;font-size:12px;color:rgb(30,30,30);line-height:25.872px">DECEMBER 11, 2015</span><span style="color:rgb(30,30,30);font-family:Helvetica;font-size:16px;line-height:25.872px"></span><h1 style="margin:0px 0px 5px 10px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;font-size:32px;line-height:34px;font-family:Helvetica;color:rgb(0,0,0)"><a href="http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/12/11/why-did-turkey-shoot-down-that-russian-plane/" rel="bookmark" style="margin:0px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;color:rgb(51,51,51);text-decoration:none" target="_blank">Why Did Turkey Shoot Down That Russian Plane?</a></h1><p style="margin:0px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;font-size:18px;line-height:12px;font-family:Georgia,serif;max-width:560px;color:rgb(17,17,17)"><span style="margin:0px 0px 0px 10px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;font-size:14px;font-family:&#39;Signika Negative&#39;,sans-serif">by</span> <span style="margin:0px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;text-transform:uppercase;letter-spacing:1px;font-family:&#39;Signika Negative&#39;,sans-serif;color:rgb(30,30,30);font-size:14px"><a href="http://www.counterpunch.org/author/conn-hallinan/" rel="nofollow" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 5px;padding:0px 0px 10px;word-wrap:break-word;color:rgb(30,30,30)" target="_blank">CONN HALLINAN</a></span></p><p style="margin:0px 0px 20px 10px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;font-size:18px;line-height:1.7em;font-family:Georgia,serif;max-width:560px;color:rgb(17,17,17)"></p><div style="margin:0px;padding:10px 0px 0px;word-wrap:break-word;clear:both;color:rgb(30,30,30);font-family:Helvetica;font-size:16px;line-height:25.872px"><div style="margin:0px;word-wrap:break-word;padding:0px!important;border:none!important"><div style="margin:0px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word"><ul style="word-wrap:break-word;margin:0px!important;padding:0px!important;list-style:none!important;line-height:25px!important"><li style="padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;display:block;float:left;min-height:25px;margin:0px 10px 5px 0px!important"><div style="padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;margin:0px!important"></div></li><li style="padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;display:block;float:left;min-height:25px;margin:0px 10px 5px 0px!important"><div style="margin:0px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;display:inline-block"><span style="margin:0px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;display:inline-block;text-align:justify;vertical-align:bottom;width:91px;min-height:20px"></span></div></li><li style="padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;display:block;float:left;min-height:25px;margin:0px 10px 5px 0px!important"><div style="margin:0px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word"><div style="margin:0px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;vertical-align:baseline;border-style:none;float:none;line-height:normal;font-size:1px;display:inline-block;width:106px;min-height:24px;background:transparent"></div></div></li><li style="padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;display:block;float:left;min-height:25px;margin:0px 10px 5px 0px!important"><a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/12/11/why-did-turkey-shoot-down-that-russian-plane/?share=email&amp;nb=1" title="Click to email this to a friend" style="margin:0px 5px 5px 0px;padding:1px 8px 0px 5px;word-wrap:break-word;display:inline-block;font-size:12px;font-family:&#39;Open Sans&#39;,sans-serif;border-radius:3px;border:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);line-height:17px;vertical-align:top;color:rgb(119,119,119)!important;text-decoration:none!important;background:rgb(248,248,248)" target="_blank"><span style="margin:0px 0px 0px 3px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;line-height:1;background-image:none">Email</span></a></li><li style="padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;display:block;float:left;min-height:25px;margin:0px 10px 5px 0px!important"></li></ul></div></div></div><ul style="margin:0px 0px 16px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;list-style-type:square;float:right;min-height:0px;color:rgb(30,30,30);font-family:Helvetica;font-size:16px;line-height:25.872px"><li style="margin:0px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;list-style-type:none"><a href="http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/12/11/why-did-turkey-shoot-down-that-russian-plane/print/" rel="nofollow" title="Print This Post" style="margin:0px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;color:rgb(51,51,51);text-decoration:none" target="_blank"><img src="http://uziiw38pmyg1ai60732c4011.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/dropzone/2015/07/print-sp.png" style="margin:0px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;border:0px;max-width:100%;min-height:auto;display:block"></a></li></ul><div style="margin:0px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;color:rgb(30,30,30);font-family:Helvetica;font-size:16px;line-height:25.872px"><p style="margin:0px 0px 20px 10px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;font-size:18px;line-height:1.7em;font-family:Georgia,serif;max-width:560px;color:rgb(17,17,17)"><img src="http://uziiw38pmyg1ai60732c4011.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/dropzone/2015/12/Syrian-warplane-510x338.jpg" alt="Syrian-warplane" width="510" height="338" style="margin:0px auto 16px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;border:0px;max-width:100%;min-height:auto;display:block;text-align:center;float:none;clear:both"></p><p style="margin:0px 0px 20px 10px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;font-size:18px;line-height:1.7em;font-family:Georgia,serif;max-width:560px;color:rgb(17,17,17)">Why did Turkey shoot down that Russian plane? It was certainly not because the SU-24 posed any threat. The plane is old and slow, and the Russians were careful not to arm it with anti-aircraft missiles. And it wasn’t because the Turks are quick on the trigger, either. Three years ago, Turkish President Recep Tayyip <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/author/robert-ellis" style="margin:0px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;color:rgb(51,51,51)" target="_blank">Erdogan emphatically declared</a> that a “short-term violation of airspace can never be a pretext for an attack.” There are even <a href="http://fpif.org/russian-bomber-shot-turkey-challenging-accepted-narrative-part-1/" style="margin:0px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;color:rgb(51,51,51)" target="_blank">some doubts</a> about whether the Russian plane ever crossed into Turkey’s airspace at all.</p><p style="margin:0px 0px 20px 10px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;font-size:18px;line-height:1.7em;font-family:Georgia,serif;max-width:560px;color:rgb(17,17,17)">Indeed, the whole November 24 incident looks increasingly suspicious, and one doesn’t have to be a paranoid Russian to think the takedown might have been an ambush. As retired Lt. Gen. Tom McInerney, former U.S. Air Force chief of staff, <a href="http://insider.foxnews.com/2015/11/24/lt-gen-mcinerney-turkey-shooting-down-russian-plane-was-very-bad-mistake" style="margin:0px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;color:rgb(51,51,51)" target="_blank">told Fox News</a>, “This airplane was not making any maneuvers to attack the [Turkish] territory.” He called the Turkish action “overly aggressive” and concluded that the incident “had to be preplanned.”</p><p style="margin:0px 0px 20px 10px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;font-size:18px;line-height:1.7em;font-family:Georgia,serif;max-width:560px;color:rgb(17,17,17)">It certainly puzzled the <a href="http://www.spacewar.com/reports/Russia_plane_entered_Israel_control_zone_from_Syria_minister_999.html" style="margin:0px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;color:rgb(51,51,51)" target="_blank">Israeli military</a>, not known for taking a casual approach to military intrusions. Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon told the press on November 29 that a Russian warplane had violated the Israeli border over the Golan Heights. “Russian planes do not intend to attack us, which is why we must not automatically react and shoot them down when an error occurs.”</p><p style="margin:0px 0px 20px 10px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;font-size:18px;line-height:1.7em;font-family:Georgia,serif;max-width:560px;color:rgb(17,17,17)">So why was the plane downed?</p><p style="margin:0px 0px 20px 10px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;font-size:18px;line-height:1.7em;font-family:Georgia,serif;max-width:560px;color:rgb(17,17,17)">Perhaps because, for the first time in four years, some major players are tentatively inching toward a settlement of the catastrophic Syrian civil war, and powerful forces are maneuvering to torpedo that process. If the Russians hadn’t kept their <a href="http://www.kyivpost.com/article/content/russia/agence-france-presse-russia-accuses-turkey-of-provocation-as-pilot-denies-warning-402834.html" style="margin:0px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;color:rgb(51,51,51)" target="_blank">cool</a>, several nuclear-armed powers could well have found themselves in a scary faceoff, and any thoughts of ending the war would have gone a-glimmering.</p><p style="margin:0px 0px 20px 10px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;font-size:18px;line-height:1.7em;font-family:Georgia,serif;max-width:560px;color:rgb(17,17,17)"><strong style="margin:0px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word">A Short Score Card</strong></p><p style="margin:0px 0px 20px 10px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;font-size:18px;line-height:1.7em;font-family:Georgia,serif;max-width:560px;color:rgb(17,17,17)">There are multiple actors on the Syrian stage — and a bewildering number of crosscurrents and competing agendas that, paradoxically, make it both easier and harder to find common ground. Easier, because there is no unified position among the antagonists; harder, because trying to herd heavily armed cats is a tricky business.</p><p style="margin:0px 0px 20px 10px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;font-size:18px;line-height:1.7em;font-family:Georgia,serif;max-width:560px;color:rgb(17,17,17)">A short score card on the players:</p><p style="margin:0px 0px 20px 10px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;font-size:18px;line-height:1.7em;font-family:Georgia,serif;max-width:560px;color:rgb(17,17,17)">The Russians and the Iranians are supporting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and fighting a host of extremist organizations ranging from al-Qaeda to the Islamic State, or ISIS. But each country has a different view of what a post-civil war Syria might look like. The Russians want a centralized and secular state with a big army. The Iranians don’t think much of “secular,” and they favor <a href="http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/11/iran-syria-strategy-hedging-national-defense-force.html" style="margin:0px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;color:rgb(51,51,51)" target="_blank">militias</a>, not armies.</p><p style="margin:0px 0px 20px 10px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;font-size:18px;line-height:1.7em;font-family:Georgia,serif;max-width:560px;color:rgb(17,17,17)">Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and most the other Gulf monarchies are trying to overthrow the Assad regime, and are the major supporters of the groups Russia, Iran, and Lebanon’s Hezbollah are fighting. But while Turkey and Qatar want to replace Assad with the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood, Saudi Arabia might just hate the Brotherhood more than it does Assad. And while the monarchies are not overly concerned with the Kurds, Turkey is <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/28/world/europe/turkey-syria-kurdish-militias.html?_r=0" style="margin:0px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;color:rgb(51,51,51)" target="_blank">bombing</a> them, and they’re a major reason why Ankara is so deeply enmeshed in Syria.</p><p style="margin:0px 0px 20px 10px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;font-size:18px;line-height:1.7em;font-family:Georgia,serif;max-width:560px;color:rgb(17,17,17)">The U.S., France, and the United Kingdom are also trying to overthrow Assad, but are currently focused on fighting ISIS using the Kurds as their major allies — specifically the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Party, an offshoot of the Turkish Kurdish Workers Party that the U.S. officially designates as “terrorist.” These are the same Kurds that the Turks are bombing and who have a friendly alliance with the Russians.</p><p style="margin:0px 0px 20px 10px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;font-size:18px;line-height:1.7em;font-family:Georgia,serif;max-width:560px;color:rgb(17,17,17)">Indeed, Turkey may discover that one of the price tags for shooting down that SU-24 is the sudden appearance of new Russian weapons for the Kurds, some of which will be aimed at the Turks.</p><p style="margin:0px 0px 20px 10px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;font-size:18px;line-height:1.7em;font-family:Georgia,serif;max-width:560px;color:rgb(17,17,17)"><strong style="margin:0px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word">A Suspension of Rational Thought</strong></p><p style="margin:0px 0px 20px 10px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;font-size:18px;line-height:1.7em;font-family:Georgia,serif;max-width:560px;color:rgb(17,17,17)">The Syrian war requires a certain suspension of rational thought.</p><p style="margin:0px 0px 20px 10px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;font-size:18px;line-height:1.7em;font-family:Georgia,serif;max-width:560px;color:rgb(17,17,17)">For instance, the Americans are unhappy with the Russians for bombing the anti-Assad Army of Conquest, a rebel alliance dominated by the Nusra Front, al-Qaeda’s franchise in Syria. That would be the same al-Qaeda that brought down the World Trade Center towers and that the U.S. is currently bombing in Yemen, Somalia, and Afghanistan.</p><p style="margin:0px 0px 20px 10px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;font-size:18px;line-height:1.7em;font-family:Georgia,serif;max-width:560px;color:rgb(17,17,17)">Suspension of rational thought is not limited to Syria.</p><p style="margin:0px 0px 20px 10px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;font-size:18px;line-height:1.7em;font-family:Georgia,serif;max-width:560px;color:rgb(17,17,17)">A number of Arab countries initially joined the U.S. air war against the Islamic State and al-Qaeda, because both organizations are pledged to overthrow the Gulf monarchies. But Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar have now <a href="http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/11/islamic-state-gulf.html" style="margin:0px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;color:rgb(51,51,51)" target="_blank">dropped out</a> to concentrate their air power on bombing the Houthis in Yemen.</p><p style="margin:0px 0px 20px 10px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;font-size:18px;line-height:1.7em;font-family:Georgia,serif;max-width:560px;color:rgb(17,17,17)">The Houthis, however, are by far the most effective force fighting ISIS and al-Qaeda in Yemen. Both extremist organizations have made major gains in the last few weeks because the Houthis are too busy defending themselves to take them on.</p><p style="margin:0px 0px 20px 10px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;font-size:18px;line-height:1.7em;font-family:Georgia,serif;max-width:560px;color:rgb(17,17,17)"><strong style="margin:0px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word">Moves Toward a Settlement</strong></p><p style="margin:0px 0px 20px 10px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;font-size:18px;line-height:1.7em;font-family:Georgia,serif;max-width:560px;color:rgb(17,17,17)">In spite of all this political derangement, however, there are several developments that are pushing the sides toward some kind of peaceful settlement that doesn’t involve regime change in Syria. That is exactly what the Turks and the Gulf monarchs are worried about, and a major reason why Ankara shot down that Russian plane.</p><p style="margin:0px 0px 20px 10px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;font-size:18px;line-height:1.7em;font-family:Georgia,serif;max-width:560px;color:rgb(17,17,17)">The first of these developments has been building throughout the summer: a growing flood of Syrians fleeing the war. There are already almost 2 million in Turkey, over a million each in Jordan and Lebanon, and as many as 900,000 in Europe. Out of 23 million Syrians, some 11 million have been displaced by the war, and the Europeans are worried that many of those 11 million people will end up camping out on the banks of the Seine and the Ruhr. If the war continues into next year, that’s an entirely plausible prediction.</p><p style="margin:0px 0px 20px 10px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;font-size:18px;line-height:1.7em;font-family:Georgia,serif;max-width:560px;color:rgb(17,17,17)">Hence, the Europeans have quietly <a href="http://www.kyivpost.com/content/russia-and-former-soviet-union/financial-times-france-signals-softer-stance-on-assad-402997.html" style="margin:0px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;color:rgb(51,51,51)" target="_blank">shelved</a> their demand that Assad resign as a prerequisite for a ceasefire and are leaning on the<a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/2c99affa-91c6-11e5-94e6-c5413829caa5.html#axzz3tlnYnfpK" style="margin:0px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;color:rgb(51,51,51)" target="_blank">Americans</a> to follow suit. The issue is hardly resolved, but there seems to be general agreement that Assad will at least be part of a transition government. At this point, the Russians and Iranians are insisting on an <a href="http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/11/putin-khameneni-iran-russia-quran-manuscript.html" style="margin:0px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;color:rgb(51,51,51)" target="_blank">election</a> in which Assad would be a candidate because both are wary of anything that looks like “regime change.” The role Assad might play will be a sticking point, but probably not an insurmountable one.</p><p style="margin:0px 0px 20px 10px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;font-size:18px;line-height:1.7em;font-family:Georgia,serif;max-width:560px;color:rgb(17,17,17)">Turkey and Saudi Arabia are adamant that Assad must go, but neither of them is in the <a href="http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/11/syria-turkey-russian-warplane-shot-down-aftermath-erdogan.html" style="margin:0px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;color:rgb(51,51,51)" target="_blank">driver’s seat</a> these days. While NATO supported Turkey in the Russian plane incident, according to some of the Turkish press, many of its leading officials consider Erdogan a <a href="http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/12/turkey-russia-european-union-downing-of-russian-jet.html" style="margin:0px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;color:rgb(51,51,51)" target="_blank">loose cannon</a>. And Saudi Arabia — whose economy has been hard hit by the worldwide fall in oil prices — is preoccupied by its Yemen war, which is turning into a very expensive quagmire.</p><p style="margin:0px 0px 20px 10px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;font-size:18px;line-height:1.7em;font-family:Georgia,serif;max-width:560px;color:rgb(17,17,17)"><strong style="margin:0px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word">Russia’s Role</strong></p><p style="margin:0px 0px 20px 10px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;font-size:18px;line-height:1.7em;font-family:Georgia,serif;max-width:560px;color:rgb(17,17,17)">The second development is the Russian intervention, which appears to have <a href="http://nsnbc.me/2015/11/24/why-the-west-wont-hit-isis-where-it-hurts/" style="margin:0px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;color:rgb(51,51,51)" target="_blank">changed things</a> on the ground, at least in the north, where Assad’s forces were being hard pressed by the Army of Conquest. New weapons and airpower have dented a rebel offensive and resulted in some gains in the government’s battle for Syria’s largest city, Aleppo.</p><p style="margin:0px 0px 20px 10px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;font-size:18px;line-height:1.7em;font-family:Georgia,serif;max-width:560px;color:rgb(17,17,17)">Russian bombing also took a heavy toll on the <a href="http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/11/turkey-syria-russia-turkmen-card-against-kurds-ypg.html" style="margin:0px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;color:rgb(51,51,51)" target="_blank">Turkmen</a> insurgents in the Bayir-Bucak region, the border area that Turkey has used to<a href="http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/09/turkey-syria-daily-exposes-transfer-weapons-supplies-to-isis.html" style="margin:0px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;color:rgb(51,51,51)" target="_blank">infiltrate arms</a>, supplies, and insurgents into Syria.</p><p style="margin:0px 0px 20px 10px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;font-size:18px;line-height:1.7em;font-family:Georgia,serif;max-width:560px;color:rgb(17,17,17)">The appearance of the Russians essentially killed Turkey’s efforts to create a “no fly zone” on its border with Syria, a proposal that the U.S. has never been <a href="http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/12/turkey-cooperation-us-frustration-syria-border.html" style="margin:0px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;color:rgb(51,51,51)" target="_blank">enthusiastic</a> about. Washington’s major allies, the Kurds, are strongly opposed to a no fly zone because they see it as part of Ankara’s efforts to keep the Kurds from forming an autonomous region in Syria.</p><p style="margin:0px 0px 20px 10px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;font-size:18px;line-height:1.7em;font-family:Georgia,serif;max-width:560px;color:rgb(17,17,17)">The Bayir-Bucak area and the city of Jarabulus are also the exit point for Turkey’s lucrative oil smuggling operation, apparently overseen by one of Erdogan’s sons, Bilal. The Russians have embarrassed the Turks by publishing <a href="http://www.globalresearch.ca/maps-reveal-chain-of-isis-oil-smuggling-routes-from-syria-and-iraq-to-turkey-russian-defense-ministry/5492899" style="margin:0px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;color:rgb(51,51,51)" target="_blank">satellite photos</a> showing miles of tanker trucks picking up oil from ISIS-controlled wells and shipping it through Turkey’s southern border with Syria.</p><p style="margin:0px 0px 20px 10px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;font-size:18px;line-height:1.7em;font-family:Georgia,serif;max-width:560px;color:rgb(17,17,17)">“The oil controlled by the Islamic State militants enters Turkish territory on an industrial scale,” Russian President Vladimir Putin <a href="http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/12/01/putins-revenge-the-fight-for-the-border/" style="margin:0px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;color:rgb(51,51,51)" target="_blank">said November 30</a>. “We have every reason to believe that the decision to down our plane was guided by a desire to ensure the security of this oil’s delivery routes to ports.”</p><p style="margin:0px 0px 20px 10px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;font-size:18px;line-height:1.7em;font-family:Georgia,serif;max-width:560px;color:rgb(17,17,17)"><strong style="margin:0px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word">Erdogan and NATO</strong></p><p style="margin:0px 0px 20px 10px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;font-size:18px;line-height:1.7em;font-family:Georgia,serif;max-width:560px;color:rgb(17,17,17)">Erdogan didn’t get quite the response he wanted from NATO following the shooting down of the SU-24. While the military alliance backed Turkey’s defense of its “sovereignty,” NATO then called for a peaceful resolution and de-escalation of the whole matter.</p><p style="margin:0px 0px 20px 10px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;font-size:18px;line-height:1.7em;font-family:Georgia,serif;max-width:560px;color:rgb(17,17,17)">At a time when Europe needs a solution to the refugee crisis — and wants to focus its firepower on the organization that killed 130 people in Paris — NATO cannot be happy that the Turks are dragging them into a confrontation with the Russians, making the whole situation a lot more dangerous than it was before the November 24 incident.</p><p style="margin:0px 0px 20px 10px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;font-size:18px;line-height:1.7em;font-family:Georgia,serif;max-width:560px;color:rgb(17,17,17)">The Russians have now deployed their more modern SU-34 bombers and armed them with <a href="https://www.rt.com/news/323992-russia-syria-air-missile/" style="margin:0px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;color:rgb(51,51,51)" target="_blank">air-to-air missiles</a>. The bombers will now also be escorted by SU-35 fighters. The Russians have also fielded S-300 and S-400 <a href="http://www.commondreams.org/news/2015/11/25/wake-turkey-provocation-putin-orders-anti-aircraft-missiles-syria" style="margin:0px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;color:rgb(51,51,51)" target="_blank">anti-aircraft systems</a>, the latter with a range of 250 miles. The Russians say they’re not looking for trouble, but they’re loaded for bear should it happen.</p><p style="margin:0px 0px 20px 10px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;font-size:18px;line-height:1.7em;font-family:Georgia,serif;max-width:560px;color:rgb(17,17,17)">Would a dustup between Turkish and Russian planes bring NATO — and four nuclear armed nations — into a confrontation? That possibility ought to keep people up at night.</p><p style="margin:0px 0px 20px 10px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;font-size:18px;line-height:1.7em;font-family:Georgia,serif;max-width:560px;color:rgb(17,17,17)"><strong style="margin:0px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word">Coming to the Table</strong></p><p style="margin:0px 0px 20px 10px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;font-size:18px;line-height:1.7em;font-family:Georgia,serif;max-width:560px;color:rgb(17,17,17)">Sometime around the New Year, the countries involved in the Syrian civil war will come together in Geneva. A number of those will do their level best to derail the talks, but one hopes there are enough sane — and desperate — parties on hand to map out a political solution.</p><p style="margin:0px 0px 20px 10px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;font-size:18px;line-height:1.7em;font-family:Georgia,serif;max-width:560px;color:rgb(17,17,17)">It won’t be easy, and who gets to sit at the table has yet to be decided. The Turks will object to the Kurds; the Russians, Iranians, and Kurds will object to the Army of Conquest; and the Saudis will object to Assad. In the end it could all come apart. It’s not hard to torpedo a peace plan in the Middle East.</p><p style="margin:0px 0px 20px 10px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;font-size:18px;line-height:1.7em;font-family:Georgia,serif;max-width:560px;color:rgb(17,17,17)">But if the problems are great, failure will be catastrophic. That may be the glue that keeps the parties together long enough to hammer out a ceasefire, an arms embargo, a new constitution, and internationally supervised elections.</p></div><div style="margin:0px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;color:rgb(30,30,30);font-family:Helvetica;font-size:16px;line-height:25.872px"><p style="margin:0px 0px 20px 10px;padding:16px 0px 0px;word-wrap:break-word;font-size:15px;line-height:1.7em;font-family:Georgia,serif;max-width:560px;color:rgb(17,17,17);border-top-width:1px;border-top-style:dotted;border-top-color:rgb(221,221,221)"><em style="margin:0px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word"><strong style="margin:0px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word">Conn Hallinan</strong> can be read at <a href="mailto:dispatchesfromtheedgeblog.wordpress.com" style="margin:0px;padding:0px;word-wrap:break-word;color:rgb(51,51,51)" target="_blank">dispatchesfromtheedgeblog.wordpress.com</a> </em></p></div></div>
</div><br><br clear="all"><div><br></div>-- <br><div class="gmail_signature"><div dir="ltr"><div><div dir="ltr"><div>Check out the Commons Transition Plan here at: <a href="http://commonstransition.org" target="_blank">http://commonstransition.org</a>  </div><div><br></div>P2P Foundation: <a href="http://p2pfoundation.net" target="_blank">http://p2pfoundation.net</a>  - <a href="http://blog.p2pfoundation.net" target="_blank">http://blog.p2pfoundation.net</a> <br><br><a href="http://lists.ourproject.org/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/p2p-foundation" target="_blank"></a>Updates: <a href="http://twitter.com/mbauwens" target="_blank">http://twitter.com/mbauwens</a>; <a href="http://www.facebook.com/mbauwens" target="_blank">http://www.facebook.com/mbauwens</a><br><br>#82 on the (En)Rich list: <a href="http://enrichlist.org/the-complete-list/" target="_blank">http://enrichlist.org/the-complete-list/</a> <br></div></div></div></div>
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