<div dir="ltr"><br><br><div class="gmail_quote">---------- Forwarded message ----------<br>From: <b class="gmail_sendername">Dante-Gabryell Monson</b> <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:dante.monson@gmail.com">dante.monson@gmail.com</a>></span><br>
Date: Mon, Sep 1, 2014 at 8:22 AM<br>Subject: Fwd: <nettime> World at War? Counter-revolution and Unbalanced Multipolarism<br>To: "<a href="mailto:econowmix@googlegroups.com">econowmix@googlegroups.com</a>" <<a href="mailto:econowmix@googlegroups.com">econowmix@googlegroups.com</a>><br>
<br><br><div dir="ltr">Brian finishes his answer with the question :<br><br><b>" What is our answer to multipolar chaos? What is our life<br>
project? "</b><br><div><br><div class="gmail_quote"><span style="font-size:large;font-weight:bold">Forwarded conversation</span><br>Subject: <b class="gmail_sendername"><nettime> World at War? Counter-revolution and Unbalanced Multipolarism</b><br>
------------------------<br><br><span><font color="#888">From: <b>Alex Foti</b> <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:alex.foti@gmail.com" target="_blank">alex.foti@gmail.com</a>></span><br>Date: Tue, Aug 26, 2014 at 5:25 PM<br>
To: <a href="mailto:nettime-l@kein.org" target="_blank">nettime-l@kein.org</a><br></font><br></span><br>dear 'timers,<br>
<br>
we are living in a William Gibson novel and it ain't pretty:<br>
hypermediatization, random cruelty, aberrant irrationality, political<br>
and ecological disintegration seem to rule the world.<br>
<br>
yet there is a simple hobbesian logic to this all - i propose a simple<br>
model to interpret the horrific events of 2014 based on two hypotheses<br>
- one that the counter-revolution is trying to gain the upper hand in<br>
the Middle East and elsewhere after the revolutionary wave of 2011<br>
(let's call it the thermidorian hypothesis, incarnated by say Sisi and<br>
Netanyahu) and two that we have entered a geopolitical era based on<br>
a multipolar system which is unbalanced, i.e. where regional powers<br>
vie for influence and dominance in the various areas of the world and<br>
sectors of the global economy, augmenting the risk of war.<br>
<br>
Since the G20 was first convened in April 2009 to address the<br>
macroeconomic imbalances created by the financial crisis, it's clear<br>
that the West is no longer in control of the world, and emergent<br>
powers and sovereign funds increasingly call the shots. The reckless<br>
bid to global hegemony launched by bushism in Iraq and Afghanistan has<br>
failed miserably and marked an end to the post-cold-war world order of<br>
unipolar (and often unilateral) American power, the "hyperpuissance"<br>
as the French called it, of the 90s and 00s.<br>
<br>
The Arab Spring and its aftermath has further exposed the political<br>
and military weakness of the US and its EU allies. The intervention of<br>
the west was crucial only in Libya, and it was initiated by the French<br>
and only reluctantly Obama joined. Unfortunately, the overthrow and<br>
execution of Qaddafi (justified in my eyes) has not led to some rough<br>
kind of democracy but to civil war and a failed state in the former<br>
Italian colony. Only in Tunisia, the homeland of the revolution,<br>
there is no attempt to return to the status quo ante, as an uneasy<br>
dynamic has set in opposing the muslim majority in government and the<br>
secular urban young minorities who did the revolution, and especially<br>
women fighting for their rights against clerical interference. It<br>
was the same of dynamic (let's call it the muslim brothers vs black<br>
bloc hooligans for theatric effect) that was at work during Morsi's<br>
short democratic tenure, interrupted by the military coup at behest of<br>
Saudi Arabia, the true evil power of the region, possibly even more<br>
than Assad's murderous regime, in the light of the fact that it has<br>
spawned ISIS, the nightmare finally come true: a revolutionary army of<br>
ideological and sectarian fanatics loaded with weapons and cash, bent<br>
on establishing the Sunni Caliphate across Syria, Iraq, Kurdistan,<br>
and the whole Ummah. This is not the Al Qaeda beheaded by Obama, it's<br>
an open call to jihadists across the world to conquer muslim land<br>
unjustly apportioned by European powers after Versailles and slaughter<br>
the infidels, starting with Kurdish and especially Shia people, a<br>
confession for centuries dominated by Sunni despotism that is turning<br>
the tables of history favoring the rise of Iran and the power it built<br>
after the <a href="tel:1979" value="+661979" target="_blank">1979</a> revolution, decidedly the year that the 21st century<br>
started (the Soviets invaded Afghanistan and Carter roasted himself to<br>
peanuts).<br>
<br>
Of course it is in Syria-Iraq, Gaza and Ukraine that the geopolitical<br>
fault-lines of multipolarism are exposing major volcanic activity,<br>
and the lava is engulfing thousands and thousands of innocent people<br>
killed remorselessly for dreams of great power and millennial<br>
territorial expansion.<br>
<br>
Let's see Syria first. Almost 200,000 people have died since Assad,<br>
like Qaddafi before him, started bombing his own people. Homs is an<br>
open-air cemetery, Aleppo, once the capital of the Umayyad empire<br>
(the mosque that testified their long-gone power was destroyed last<br>
year - an archeological crime against humanity just like Jonas' tomb<br>
destroyed by ISIS a few weeks ago, or the Banyan Buhddas by the<br>
talebans fifteen years ago) has been reduced to a mound of rubble.<br>
<br>
Since the US and the UK dithered over direct intervention and<br>
ultimately appeased Putin over Syria, ISIS has defeated all other<br>
(mostly Qatari-funded) islamist fighting organizations and become<br>
the most fearful enemy of Shias in the region and of the west in the<br>
world. Northern Iraq and Western Syria are theirs, while Kurdistan is<br>
threatened: this is the fearsome Islamic State.<br>
<br>
The Syrian war is a nest of ideological and geopolitical<br>
contradictions. Assad's Alawite (minor shia sect) army is helped by<br>
Hezbollah (the popular Lebanese shia miliatias which are fighting as<br>
proxies of Iran) against the islamist forces funded by Saudi Arabia<br>
(ISIS) and Qatar (Islamic Front), as well as other formations and<br>
other emirates. The Free Syrian Army seems to count as much as the<br>
Iraqi army, which melted at the sight of thousands of black-flagged<br>
and black-clad jihadists on gun-toting pick-up trucks. The incredible<br>
number of victims and refugees of the Syrian war mostly belong to the<br>
civilian sunni majority of Syria.<br>
<br>
Rising Iran and the decline of the House of Saud (source of that<br>
wahabbism that has infected the Middle East and the world) are the<br>
trends that have driven the political dynamic of the region in the<br>
last three decades. They face each other in Syria and in Baghdad. But<br>
now the creation of the Islamic State (on the 4th of July!) has become<br>
too destabilizing. The violently intolerant jihadists have taken<br>
Mosul, ancient Ninive, and its oil fields. Its giant dam is being<br>
fought over by the Peshmerga, the fighters of autonomous Kurdistan,<br>
pretty much the only positive force in a dark hell of ethnic cleansing<br>
and violent misogyny. An independent Kurdish state is bound to emerge<br>
from this war if ISIS is defeated. Although Erbil has been seriously<br>
threatened, the Kurds have taken Kirkuk, which they regard as their<br>
Jerusalem, and its oil fields. A rump Iraq based on a uneasy truce<br>
between the shias of the south and the sunnis in the north brokered<br>
by the US (and its limited military intervention against ISIS) is<br>
possible, but unlikely to be stable, and would further veer the<br>
country toward Iran, which is already exerting much influence there<br>
through Al-Sistani and has now sent its own revolutionary army, the<br>
Pasdaran, to directly fight the Islamic State, which is now turning<br>
its ferocity back to Syria (it has just captured its main air force<br>
base), to the point that Assad has extended a hand to the US.<br>
<br>
I think the west should oppose such offer at all costs and instead<br>
find an agreement with Iran, which albeit theocratic and repressive,<br>
is definitely a modernist form of islam favoring popular participation<br>
and tolerating a higher degree of anti-conformism (unless it turns<br>
into a green revolution;) with respect to the Gulf petrocracies,<br>
especially for what concerns women's rights.<br>
<br>
An increasingly right-wing Israel opposes such rapprochement with all<br>
its energies, and Netanyahu has callously seized the opportunity of US<br>
attention caught by Ukraine and Iraq and start its own destabilization<br>
of the region by bombing the people of Gaza, invading the city with<br>
tanks, and pointlessly trying to eradicate Hamas from the strip. If<br>
anything I think Meshal now stands a better chance of becoming the<br>
president of a future Palestinian state (if it ever sees the light).<br>
Thousand of kids have been mercilessly butchered by the Israeli<br>
military, with appalling popular approval at home. Israel has become<br>
an ethnic democracy intolerant of the Arab element in its midst. Rabid<br>
nationalism is stronger there than in France, Denmark or Greece.<br>
It's an apartheid state, but unlike South Africa, the majority is<br>
in charge. Unless the US decides to break with the Israel lobby at<br>
home and suspends its military aid, no progress will be made there,<br>
although American Jews and Americans in general seem to disapprove of<br>
Israel's actions to an unprecedented degree.<br>
<br>
Putin's Russia, which had been on the defensive since 2011, went on<br>
the offensive after the euromaidan forces seized power in Ukraine,<br>
shifting the country from the Russian to the European (German)<br>
sphere of influence. I have already written of how he seized Crimea<br>
with blitzkrieg speed and destabilized Eastern Ukraine. From a<br>
realist point of view, a country that has already lost a piece of its<br>
territory will try to defend what it has left with all the military<br>
resources at its disposal. And it's precisely what Poroshenko is doing<br>
by hammering the Donetsk republic with all it has and inflicting<br>
horrific civilian losses but also accepting high military casualties,<br>
since the secession is militarily equipped and trained by the Kremlin:<br>
whatever you think of these guys, they have tanks, they are no<br>
partisan or guerrilla fighters.<br>
<br>
The war will end when Merkel and Putin will find an understanding<br>
over the status of Ukraine that doesn't compromise energy supplies<br>
and eurorussian business ventures, but Russia has lost the Cold War,<br>
not won it, Poland and the Baltic members of the EU object to the old<br>
eurocore. So it will be a careful game for anemic European diplomacy<br>
to navigate between Russian aggressiveness and an unstable Maghreb:<br>
as for the Middle East, it is a nasty game best left to the once<br>
protective Americans; what is sure is that Sykes-Picot is history for<br>
good.<br>
<br>
In Ukraine, American and European interests seem to diverge. For<br>
all the tension built in East Asia by signs of Chinese expansionism<br>
and Japanese militarism, with the downing of the (second) Malaysian<br>
passenger jet, it is Ukraine that is sending the shivers down the<br>
spine of the global economy. But the real threat to an already<br>
imbalanced multipolar geopolitical system (historically the most<br>
war-prone, think the Napoleonic era or Belle Epoque) is ISIS<br>
apocalyptic aggressiveness (uniting popes and ayatollahs in their<br>
hostility to it), its mix of media sophistication and barbaric<br>
determination something that seems to occur on a different historical<br>
time-scale different than the one we normally use to make sense of<br>
modernity. And this is occurring in the world's Heartland, where the<br>
historical destinies of empires have been decided since the times of<br>
Tamerlane.<br>
<br>
In the end, Realpolitik and the radical democratic aspirations<br>
unleashed by the Revolution will clash, as they have always had in the<br>
past. War is a way to normalize revolution, to discipline its wild<br>
outcomes. Historically, war has also been the tool of choice for every<br>
expansionary ideology. For ISIS to lose, Assad, Sisi, and Erdogan<br>
can't win.<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
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<br>----------<br><span><font color="#888">From: <b>Brian Holmes</b> <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:bhcontinentaldrift@gmail.com" target="_blank">bhcontinentaldrift@gmail.com</a>></span><br>Date: Sun, Aug 31, 2014 at 3:17 PM<br>
To: <a href="mailto:nettime-l@mail.kein.org" target="_blank">nettime-l@mail.kein.org</a><br></font><br></span><br><br>
Alex, it's always great to read your all-embracing visions (though<br>
actually what we are living through now is more like a Bruce Sterling<br>
novel than a William Gibson one). Anyway, I would like to go a little<br>
further with the closing points:<div><br>
<br>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">
In Ukraine, American and European interests seem to diverge. For<br>
all the tension built in East Asia by signs of Chinese expansionism<br>
and Japanese militarism, with the downing of the (second) Malaysian<br>
passenger jet, it is Ukraine that is sending the shivers down the<br>
spine of the global economy.<br>
</blockquote>
<br></div>
Since 2008, and above all, since the euro-crisis came online and<br>
never went off, what's happening is - for the 90s generation anyway<br>
- THE UNTHINKABLE: the end of the predominance of the economy as<br>
such. Globalization was the globalization of money, period. Even the<br>
Revolution in Military Affairs was a sales pitch for new technology,<br>
and the Iraq invasion of 2003 was a business plan for the extractive<br>
industries. Since 2008 growth in the West has been radically stalled,<br>
the US recovery is a mirage, the German miracle is unsustainable in a<br>
devastated EU, and the chatter of web 2.0 can't hide the ravages of<br>
technological unemployment. Brad DeLong, who was a Clinton economist,<br>
now talks of the Greater Depression instead of the Great Recession.<br>
For Euro-American neoliberalism this is an anthropological change.<br>
The idea that a kid from the neighborhood can't score a million with<br>
a killer app or a new real-estate scheme is the end of an era, the<br>
fall of homo delirius. In the void, all interests diverge and entirely<br>
new forms of human motivation start vying for some space in the<br>
ideological vacuum that human nature abhors.<div><br>
<br>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">
But the real threat to an already imbalanced multipolar geopolitical<br>
system (historically the most war-prone, think the Napoleonic<br>
era or Belle Epoque) is ISIS apocalyptic aggressiveness (uniting<br>
popes and ayatollahs in their hostility to it), its mix of media<br>
sophistication and barbaric determination something that seems to<br>
occur on a different historical time-scale different than the one we<br>
normally use to make sense of modernity.<br>
</blockquote>
<br></div>
In the twilight of the universal equivalent (Dollardammerung) the<br>
question of a life-project becomes the huge overriding existential<br>
issue, on which the tattered left is almost totally silent after the<br>
cocaine and cynicism of the long credit-boom. Multipolar eras are all<br>
about grabbing territory, but the real-estate of the heart is just as<br>
important. Western intellectuals and political-artistic vanguards are<br>
paralyzed by our impotence in the face of both oligarchical control<br>
and climate change, while the ISIS jihadis are storming heaven. In the<br>
Former West right now I only see two beacons: Podemos in Spain and the<br>
Negro Summer of Ferguson, Missouri. But we need a sunrise, not a fire<br>
in the night.<div><br>
<br>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex">
In the end, Realpolitik and the radical democratic aspirations<br>
unleashed by the Revolution will clash, as they have always had in<br>
the past. War is a way to normalize revolution, to discipline its<br>
wild outcomes. Historically, war has also been the tool of choice<br>
for every expansionary ideology. For ISIS to lose, Assad, Sisi, and<br>
Erdogan can't win.<br>
</blockquote>
<br></div>
Yeah, we on the radical left have seen the ways that war neutralizes<br>
and normalizes revolution, no question about it. Right now Kerry is<br>
calling for a global coalition against ISIS. Reboot the global war<br>
machine, empire-style. But who would pay for it? The Saudis of course,<br>
the same way that Japan paid for the Grand Coalition of the first<br>
Gulf War, the one that opened up the era of neoliberal globalization.<br>
Let's hope it doesn't happen, because then Assad, Sisi and Erdogan<br>
do win. The spectacular religious barbarism of ISIS is a dart to the<br>
heart of the disenfranchised militants and intellectuals here in the<br>
Former West. What is our answer to multipolar chaos? What is our life<br>
project?<br>
<br>
restlessly yours, Brian<div></div><br></div><br></div></div>
</div><br><br clear="all"><div><br></div>-- <br><div dir="ltr"><div>Check out the Commons Transition Plan here at: <a href="http://en.wiki.floksociety.org/w/Research_Plan" target="_blank">http://en.wiki.floksociety.org/w/Research_Plan</a> </div>
<div><br></div>P2P Foundation: <a href="http://p2pfoundation.net" target="_blank">http://p2pfoundation.net</a> - <a href="http://blog.p2pfoundation.net" target="_blank">http://blog.p2pfoundation.net</a> <br><br><a href="http://lists.ourproject.org/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/p2p-foundation" target="_blank"></a>Updates: <a href="http://twitter.com/mbauwens" target="_blank">http://twitter.com/mbauwens</a>; <a href="http://www.facebook.com/mbauwens" target="_blank">http://www.facebook.com/mbauwens</a><br>
<br>#82 on the (En)Rich list: <a href="http://enrichlist.org/the-complete-list/" target="_blank">http://enrichlist.org/the-complete-list/</a> <br></div>
</div>