<html><body><div style="color:#000; background-color:#fff; font-family:times new roman, new york, times, serif;font-size:12pt"><div><span></span></div><div><br></div> <div style="font-family: times new roman, new york, times, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> <div style="font-family: times new roman, new york, times, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> <div dir="ltr"> <font size="2" face="Arial"> ----- Forwarded Message -----<br> <b><span style="font-weight: bold;">From:</span></b> Geoffrey Gardiner <geoffrey.gardiner@btinternet.com><br> <b><span style="font-weight: bold;">To:</span></b> gang8@yahoogroups.com <br> <b><span style="font-weight: bold;">Sent:</span></b> Thursday, 4 October 2012, 9:55<br> <b><span style="font-weight: bold;">Subject:</span></b> Re: [gang8] 11th Post-Keynesian Conference at UMKC last week<br> </font> </div> <br><div id="yiv1023026653">
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<div>Michael,</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Many thanks for taking so much care to give us a detailed report of a fine
speech.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Randy’s analysis fulfils our expectations, but now he needs to move on to
flesh out the solutions, which is going to be hard work. Saying one must tax
property and capital gains is nowhere hear enough. We need details. We need a
viable system of taxation.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Moreover is he not forgetting that if one stops the sort of lending he has
rightly criticised, the capital gains will mostly vanish as they are the product
of the lending, and the same is true of property prices? Indeed as regards
property our plans must now include how to soften the blow for those working
class people (I include all forms of real work in that category) who will
see their house values sinking to below construction cost, as they were before
credit became easily available. Here inflation is hiding the drop in real
values. In my street a drop of about ten to fifteen per cent in money values
over 8 years cannot reflect the 20 per cent fall in the value of money. The new
values reflect a movement back to sensible prices. Tax the houses more and the
values will drop further. Moreover a ‘mansion tax’ is a menace if its effect is
to increase the price of the houses in the lower categories, and that is indeed
what it is bound to do as the profile of the supply of houses takes 100 years to
adapt to a change in the profile of demand. The new profile of demand, by the
way, will cause a lowering of the average standard of housing, quite
unnecessarily. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>I hope Randy fully realises that no power on Earth can turn a house into
food and lighting for state pensioners. To raise capital taxes in money, assets
have to be sold, and they have to be sold to savers if prices are not to
collapse. Experience has shown, I think, that the scope for capital levies is
limited to one or two per cent. To illustrate the problem, imagine what would
happen to the price of Microsoft if one tried to mulct Bill Gates of $20bn. It
was in 1974 that two Oxford academics published a paper called, ‘Why We Need a
Wealth Tax’ and included detailed suggestions which would have raised more money
that the total savings of the personal sector of the economy, which made their
proposals impossible to carry out. Of course this ineptitude did not stop one of
them from becoming the chief economic advisor to the Bank of England.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>If you tax savings will people still save? Maybe, as so much saving is
contractual.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>For the same reasons as above tax, the need for liquidity on capital
gains has to be on realised gains, not paper profits. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>If one’s purpose is to reduce wealth disparity there are two ways of
achieving it. 1. The way done in Britain prior to Nigel Lawson’s tax changes.
High death duties, the assets sold being bought up by pension funds. It is a
slow process. 2. Expropriate and use the income of assets to reduce the
deficits. One might be able to slowly convert the assets into money.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>If one wants immediate results to prevent increased deficits, one has got
to increase income taxes. Income is what the state spends. And the income taxes
will have to apply to the middle classes, as they in the aggregate have the big
bucks. The very rich are few and far between. Even a net family income of
£70,000 puts a couple in the top 3 per cent of incomes in Britain. You can try
this out for yourself by feeding sample figures into the calculation scheme on
the Institute of Fiscal Studies web site. People with this income would however
consider themselves to be middle class, not plutocrats</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Of course both Romney and Obama funked this one in their debate. Both
promised to protect the middle classes. MMT economists should not be exhibiting
the same cowardice.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Should not there be some attempt to discriminate the good from the bad in
the business system? A capital gain resulting from manipulation of money is
surely of a different quality to the community from a capital gain from saving
and real investment in equity. There was a perfect example of this in the news
this week. Britain's best performing share in recent years is James Halstead
plc, a company which has raised its dividend every year for 35 years. It
increased its final dividend 12.2 per cent. Its success has been entirely due to
organic growth. I have known the company since 1981 and so far as I can recall
it has never bought a business. It has sold businesses, and indeed its current
activity bears little resemblance to what it made 30 years ago. Oh yes, I forgot
to mention it manufactures. Nor does it borrow much. Indeed it ended the year
with £38mn in cash, much the same as it had at the beginning of the year,
despite spending about £5mn redeeming shares. The current dividend is 33 per
cent of the share price in 2001. Of course there are companies which which would
love to mount a take-over of James Halstead. Luckily it is family controlled. We
do not want a tax system, such as we used to have, which would change
that.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>So come on all. Let us have some constructive, well thought out, viable
plans for rebalancing society without wrecking the economy in the process. Let
us get on with the hard work.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Geoffrey</div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div style='color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: "Calibri"; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none;'><b>rom:</b>
<a title="michael.hudson@earthlink.net" href="mailto:michael.hudson@earthlink.net" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" ymailto="mailto:michael.hudson@earthlink.net">Michael Hudson</a> </div>
<div style="font: 10pt/normal tahoma; font-size-adjust: none; font-stretch: normal;">
<div style="background: rgb(245, 245, 245);">
<div><b>Sent:</b> Wednesday, October 03, 2012 11:34 PM</div>
<div><b>To:</b> <a title="gang8@yahoogroups.com" href="mailto:gang8@yahoogroups.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" ymailto="mailto:gang8@yahoogroups.com">GANG8</a> </div>
<div><b>Subject:</b> [gang8] 11th Post-Keynesian Conference at UMKC last
week</div></div></div>
<div> </div></div>
<div style='color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: "Calibri"; font-size: small; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-decoration: none;'><span> </span>
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<div><font size="4"><font face="Times New Roman"><span style="font-size: 14pt;">On
Saturday, Randy Wray and others gave a set of really good speeches to the 11th
Post-Keynesian Conference at UMKC. Here are my notes (I’ve added my own comments
and extended them, I think).<br><br><br><font color="#ff0000">Randy’s
speech</font>:<br><br>
The Minsky moment occurs when enough people recognize that the financial sector
has turned the economy into a Ponzi Scheme. Debts have lost their no counterpart
in the ability to pay. So they become part of the <i>fictitious capital</i>
base.<br><br>
Sept. 14, 2007: the Northern Rock Crisis. It became clear just HOW AND WHY the
Ponzi game was
over.<br><br>
Failure to deal with this problem turns the “moment” into a permanent
depression. It is made permanent because there is no endogenous dynamic leading
to escape. The “solution” must come from outside the existing financial
environment. (Economists call this exogenous.”) And it must involve a writedown
of debt to the existing ability to
pay.<br><br>
President Herbert Hoover’s Treasury Secretary Andrew Mellon urged that this be
done by “liquidation” across the board – at sharp writedowns of asset prices to
correspond to the bankrupt economy’s inability to pay. The Roosevelt
administration had a more progressive answer, avoiding the disruptions of mass
unemployment.<br><br>
The present crisis was 50 years in the making. It began in the 1940s, and
entered a serious phase in the 1980s. It now consists of Wall Street’s attempt
to financialize almost everything, layering debt on debt on
debt.<br><br>
As property and companies are securitized and pledged to banks for loans to buy
real estate, raid companies and simply gamble, a rising share of profits and
value added is diverted to the financial sector. In the United States the
process was marked by fraud from the outset, starting in the 1980s with the junk
bond financing pioneered by Drexel Burnham. This was closed down on felony
charges, as raiders bought forward options to buy – without announcing their
intention. Arthur Andersen also was closed down for fraud in its Enron
accounting. All the accounting firms were engaging in approval-for-fees
business.<br><br>
Then, the S&L crisis occurred. Every bank that failed had fraud involved.
<br><br> After
2000, the Alan Greenspan “goldilocks” economy set the stage for fraud. The
financial sector was thoroughly permeated by fraud. The real estate appraisals
were fraud. The lawyers were fraud. The liars’ loans were fraudulent (the “lie”
was put in by the mortgage bankers, not by the borrowers.) And exploding
interest rates guaranteed a leap beyond the ability to
pay.<br><br>
The problem is that the market of honest housing loans is limited – by the
homebuyer’s ability to pay, and even to make a down payment. Honest growth in
this market is limited to the population of family-forming age cohorts,
multiplied by the rise in overall prosperity (enabling larger and better homes
to be
built.)<br><br>
But there is no limit on fraudulent loans. All you need is to sell them – and
the solution is to find suckers. These were the domestic pension funds and
foreign banks, who looked up to the U.S. economy and trusted it.
<br><br>
Most people associate the Mafia with the construction industry. But a new
financial mafia emerged at the lending source: the banks. Having found German
Landesbanken and other gullible buyers of packaged mortgages, fraud absorbed the
financial sector and its symbiotically joined real estate sector.
<br><br> Fraud
usually is the most profitable behavior that is going on. So it drives honest
players out of the market. And the fraudsters use part of their earnings as
payoffs to the “police”: the regulatory agencies and law courts, culminating in
control of the political system
itself.<br><br>
Minsky’s term for this is Money Manager
capitalism.<br><br>
So we are now in the endgame of finance capitalism in its casino capitalist
stage of “money manager
capitalism.”<br><br>
Goldilocks was a fairy tale. “Everything is all right. We have achieved
post-cycle stability,” when things are not all right at all, and fragility is
building up to a crash. Trends were supported as things-in-themselves, rather
than viewing the economy as a holistic overall dynamic. Trends are the RESULT of
different forces, not a self-directing force in
themselves.<br><br>
The public knew about the $800 billion TARP giveaway, which they found unpopular
when it was approved by Congress. They DIDN’T know about the $29 trillion
Treasury/Fed bailout of
loans.<br><br>
The crisis that has ensued is part of a long-term transformation, characterized
by Ponzi debt-driven speculation permeated with fraudulent activity, now that
Erik Holder is not prosecuting financial fraud at the Justice Department, and
President Obama is doing whatever Wall Street tells Tim Geithner to tell him to
do.<br><br> So
what we have is much more serious than merely a “liquidity crisis.” The problem
is insolvent borrowers. This goes deeper than just a few bad apples like
Citibank, Countrywide and Bank of America. The debts are unpayable on an
economy-wide scale – so the U.S. economy is facing a massive insolvency crisis.
<br><br> Under
these conditions, rescue of banks – which true reporting would show to be in
negative equity – rewards the reckless risk and fraud in which they have
engaged. The Fed’s Special Purpose Vehicles have subverted 13(3) constraints by
buying toxic
waste.<br><br>
True, the Fed CAN spend money on whatever it wants, without Congressional
oversight. The Supreme Court ruled that if Congress does not PROTEST, then the
Fed’s actions are deemed to have its approval! This is a politicization and
decriminalization of
fraud.<br><br>
In QE1 the Fed bought Treasuries. In QE2 and 3, it is buying toxic waste. It
seems bout to start selling these at great discount to vulture buyers, or
shifting them onto Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. This will require another rescue
down the
road.<br><br>
The problem with these Fed loans is not that they are inflationary, but that
they subsidize the 1% with a giant free
lunch.<br><br>
The peak outstanding was $1.7 trillion in December 2008. But cumulatively, the
sum was over $29 trillion. Of this, 40% were “questionable” under 13(3):
$11
trillion.<br><br>
The operative clause is “Unusual and Exigent Circumstances” under which the Fed
can discount notes, etc., if the borrower cannot secure adequate credit from the
banking
system.<br><br>
The Fed has become the lowest-cost finance to the banking system, with no
questions asked – and no concern for the viability of loans it is discounting
and being willing to be stuck
with.<br><br>
Fed commitments are as official as those of the Treasury, but is “free” of
political oversight. This brings into question whether the Fed SHOULD be
“independent” of
government.<br><br>
The problem is that the government itself has become privatized and
financialized. And in today’s environment, this means criminalized.
<br><br> <br><br>
We would have had a crisis even without fraud. But we can’t ignore fraud, and in
fact it magnified the crisis – using the Fed’s and AG’s attempt to keep
inflating the economy as an opportunity to take advantage of the government’s
reckless
deregulation.<br><br>
The problem is that the mortgage debt never could have been paid anyway, given
the exponential growth in debt that diverted more and more income away from
spending in the “real” economy to pay
debts.<br><br>
After the dot.com bubble crashed, the Fed had a problem: how to sustain economic
growth and prosperity. The fraudulent mortgage sector was a SOLUTION to this
problem. But the old axiom remains true: The solution to any problem creates
new, often unforeseen problems. Pumping credit into an already over-indebted
economy (hoping that it will “borrow its way out of debt” by finding some new
sector in which to make a killing) provides an infusion of spending power
somewhat akin to the government running a budget deficit. EXCEPT for the fact
that when governments run deficits, this NORMALLY involves buying goods and
services and hiring labor. And it often creates infrastructure and other social
capital investment. But pumping money into the banking system lets IT lend new
credit, on which it creates interest, whose payment withdraws yet further
borrowing power from the
economy.<br><br>
The taboo against discussing financial fraud and proposing a “monetary” solution
to the debt problem (giving banks more money, and then buying their bad loans)
blocks society from solving the problem. It mutes popular opposition to huge
giveaways to the banks, that the government could do at much less cost simply by
writing down the
debts.<br><br>
TARP and TALF were unnecessary, if Congress or the Fed would simply have written
down debts.<br><br> <br><br>Policy solutions<br><br>. Debt write-down or
outright write-off<br><br>. Raise the minimum wage.
<br><br>
Any decrease in employment will be more than offset by the injection of new
purchasing power at the lower end of the income spectrum where it is most
needed.<br><br>
Opponents say, “This will discourage employers from hiring teenagers.” But what
about minimum wage-earners with families?<br><br>. Lower the retirement age.
This will open the job market for younger people. (The rentiers and deficit
hawks urge RAISIG the retirement age.)<br><br>. Jail the fraudulent bankers,
above all those of the largest 5 or 9 banks. This will deter fraud. Close down
the banks, wipe out the stockholders and bondholders.<br><br>. Raise income
taxes on the higher brackets, and shift the tax burden back onto property and
“capital” gains. This will solve the problem of how to recapture the enormous
doubling of wealth held by the top 1%. <br><br>. Establish a targeted loan
program akin go Japan’s MITI.<br><br>. Recalculate government deficits so that
capital expenditures on infrastructure are an asset that reduces the GROSS
deficit, into a smaller NET
basis.<br><br>
However, if you do this, you must include depreciation calculations to measure
how much the infrastructure is being worn out or obsolescent. And as an
extension, you may need to include environmental cleanup
costs.<br><br> <br><br>Discussing the South economies, Manuel Montes
pointed out that neither Latin America nor India are providing credit for
industrialization. They continue to de-industrialize. And their agricultural
sectors remain backward, as do their tax systems remain regressive. Political
corruption still concentrates power among the leading <i>rentier</i>
families.<br><br>
The recovery of many Asian economies are linked to that of China, especially as
a result of booming commodity prices. But this merely increases the value of
mining, agriculture and low value-added manufacturing rather than real industry.
So the South’s position has not really increased its economic independency, food
self-sufficiency or autonomy from the North’s/China’s economic
dominance.<br><br>
So growth rates for “developing countries” are
declining.<br><br> <br></span></font></font></div></div></div></div></div>
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