thanks for helping Ben, in cc, with this important question:<br><br>< first question: Is it possible, or do you know of resources and data I
can look at, to maintain the exponential growth the economic structures
require? Id appreciate any other reflections or ideas you have about how
this relatively short-term scenario could possibly play out. ><br><br>part of my own answer is below with recommended resources<br><br>Ben, see <a href="http://blog.p2pfoundation.net/p2p-practices-as-condition-for-the-next-long-wave/2011/01/14">http://blog.p2pfoundation.net/p2p-practices-as-condition-for-the-next-long-wave/2011/01/14</a><br>
<br>In this paper, I draw on Kondratieff wave theory and Carlota Perez to describe the near and longer future scenario,<br><br>basically:<br><br>Sudden system shock makes previous system inoperable<br><br>15 years of crisis, deleveraging of debt, etc ....<br>
<br>New wave based on new principles, which could/should include substantive p2p practices<br><br>However, the underlying biospheric and civilisational crisis may very well complicate things substantially, this may very well be the last wave of capitalism<br>
<br>Sam, I remember you place the congruence of ecological crisis in 2030, do you have any sources on that?<br><br>Michel<br><br><div class="gmail_quote">---------- Forwarded message ----------<br>From: <b class="gmail_sendername">Michel Bauwens</b> <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:michel@p2pfoundation.net">michel@p2pfoundation.net</a>></span><br>
Date: Wed, Sep 14, 2011 at 4:57 PM<br>Subject: Re: Student Paper<br>To: ben zand <<a href="mailto:benzand57@gmail.com">benzand57@gmail.com</a>><br><br><br>Dear Ben<br><br>thanks for that email and I pretty much agree with your summary of the world situation,<br>
<br>not sure though where I can find these data,<br><br>but here is a summary by Ted Trainer: <a href="http://p2pfoundation.net/Radical_Implications_of_a_Zero_Growth_Economy" target="_blank">http://p2pfoundation.net/Radical_Implications_of_a_Zero_Growth_Economy</a><br>
<br>(see also below, I"m adding stuff as I think of it)<br><br>and this is probably quite important: <a href="http://p2pfoundation.net/Planetary_Boundaries" target="_blank">http://p2pfoundation.net/Planetary_Boundaries</a><br>
<p><br>
"The following points drive home the magnitude of the overshoot:<big><i>
</i></big></p>
<ol><li><big><i>If the <b>9 billion people</b> we will have on earth
within about <b>50 years</b> were to use resources at the per capita
rate of the rich countries, annual resource production would have to be
about <b>8 times as great</b> as it is now.
</i></big></li><li><big><i> If 9 billion people were to have a North
American diet <b>we would need about 4.5 billion</b> ha of cropland, but
there are <b>only 1.4 billion</b> ha of cropland on the planet.
</i></big></li><li><big><i> Water resources are scarce and dwindling.
What will the situation be if 9 billion people try to use water as we in
rich countries do, while the greenhouse problem reduces water
resources.
</i></big></li><li><big><i> The world�s fisheries are in serious
trouble now, most of them overfished and in decline. What happens if 9
billion people <b>try to eat fish at the rate Australian�s do now?</b>
</i></big></li><li><big><i> Several mineral and other resources are
likely to be very scarce soon, including gallium, indium, helium, and
there are worries about copper, zinc, silver and phosphorous.
</i></big></li><li><big><i> Oil and gas are likely to be in <b>decline
soon</b>, and <b>largely unavailable</b> in the second half of the
century. If 9 billion were to consume oil at the Australian per capita
rate, world <b>demand would be about 5 times as great as it is now</b>.
The seriousness of this is extreme, given the heavy dependence of our
society on liquid fuels.
</i></big></li><li><big><i> Recent 'Footprint' analysis indicates that
it <b>takes 8 ha of productive land to provide water</b>, energy,
settlement area and food for one person living in Australia. (World
Wildlife Fund, 2009.) So if 9 billion people were to live as we do about
72 billion ha of productive land would be needed. But <b>that is about
10 times all the available productive land on the planet</b>.
</i></big></li><li><big><i> The most disturbing argument is to do with
the greenhouse problem. It is very likely that in order to stop the
carbon content of the atmosphere rising to dangerous levels CO2
emissions <b>will have to be totally eliminated by 2050</b> (Hansen says
2030). (Hansen, 2009, Meinschausen et al., 2009.) Geo-sequestration
can�t enable this, if only because it can only capture about 85% of the
50% of emissions that come from stationary sources like power stations."</i>
</big></li></ol><br>some sources to check:<br><br><a href="http://p2pfoundation.net/Energy_Scenarios" target="_blank">http://p2pfoundation.net/Energy_Scenarios</a><br><br><a href="http://p2pfoundation.net/Powerdown_Scenarios" target="_blank">http://p2pfoundation.net/Powerdown_Scenarios</a><br>
<br><a href="http://p2pfoundation.net/Sustainable_Shrinkage" target="_blank">http://p2pfoundation.net/Sustainable_Shrinkage</a><br><br>I recommend you take a look at 'overall policy frameworks', see<br><br><p>Introduction:
</p>
<ul><li> <a href="http://p2pfoundation.net/On_the_Necessity_of_Mediation_for_Economic_and_Social_Transitions" title="On the Necessity of Mediation for Economic and Social
Transitions" target="_blank">On the Necessity of Mediation for Economic and Social
Transitions</a>. Christian Arnsperger.
</li><li> <a href="http://p2pfoundation.net/Christian_Arnsperger" title="Christian Arnsperger" target="_blank">Christian Arnsperger</a>: The <a href="http://p2pfoundation.net/Concept_of_Transition" title="Concept of
Transition" target="_blank">Concept of Transition</a>. <a href="http://eco-transitions.blogspot.com/2011/04/why-transition-first-look-at-concepts.html" target="_blank">[38]</a>
</li></ul>
<p><br>
Ways to organize P2P-Commons oriented proposals in a coherent whole:
</p>
<ol><li>The <a href="http://p2pfoundation.net/Five_Capitals_Model" title="Five Capitals Model" target="_blank">Five Capitals Model</a>
</li><li><a href="http://www.ottoscharmer.com/docs/articles/2009_SevenAcupuncturePoints5.pdf" target="_blank">Seven Acupuncture Points for Shifting to
Capitalism 3.0</a>. Otto Scharmer.
</li><li>David Korten: <a href="http://p2pfoundation.net/Seven_Global_Sources_of_Dysfunction_and_their_Corresponding_Corrective_Actions" title="Seven Global Sources of Dysfunction and their Corresponding
Corrective Actions" target="_blank">Seven Global Sources of Dysfunction and their
Corresponding Corrective Actions</a>
</li><li>Christian Arnsperger: <a href="http://p2pfoundation.net/Six_Framework_Conditions_for_Global_Systemic_Change" title="Six Framework Conditions for Global Systemic Change" target="_blank">Six
Framework Conditions for Global Systemic Change</a>
</li><li>The <a href="http://p2pfoundation.net/New_Economy_Working_Group" title="New
Economy Working Group" target="_blank">New Economy Working Group</a>, with <a href="http://p2pfoundation.net/Category:Policy?title=David_Korten&action=edit&redlink=1" title="David Korten (page does not exist)" target="_blank">David Korten</a>,
<a href="http://neweconomyworkinggroup.org/about-us/ten-action-clusters" target="_blank">Nine Action Clusters</a> and <a href="http://neweconomyworkinggroup.org/about-us/our-working-premise" target="_blank">Three Defining System Conditions</a>
</li><li><a href="http://p2pfoundation.net/11_Structural_Problems_of_the_Current_World_System" title="11 Structural Problems of the Current World System" target="_blank">11
Structural Problems of the Current World System</a></li></ol><br>That's it for today!<div><div></div><div class="h5"><br>
<h2><span><br></span> <span></span></h2><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><br><div class="gmail_quote">On Wed, Sep 14, 2011 at 12:36 AM, ben zand <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:benzand57@gmail.com" target="_blank">benzand57@gmail.com</a>></span> wrote:<br>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin: 0pt 0pt 0pt 0.8ex; border-left: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding-left: 1ex;">Great. Again I deeply appreciate your time and efforts for humanity. And I do not expect any complete answers as I think that is beyond the scope of any one mind to comprehend with he interweaving complexities of today. I am beginning my paper by looking at the economic realities which drive�the�world and determine possibilities. Which in itself, I feel, is one of the root problems of humanity. Developed countries have become infatuated with growth and economic measures as the goals for society. This obviously isn't going to create a�benevolent�world as each country competes for exponential growth in a limited planet. Now it seems the United States, the engine and absorber, of economic growth has reached its limits of�consumption�as the population cannot service much new added debt, which allowed it to maintain this position. The globalist appear to look toward China and the developing world as the next engine after the next black swan induced market crash depresses the economy and�destabilizes�the U.S.'s position. In any plan to create new structures for the future of humanity, we must first roughly understand the environment in which they will be created and the palpability of these new possible changes.�<div>
<br></div><div>So first question: Is it possible, or do you know of resources and data I can look at, to maintain the exponential growth the economic structures require? Id appreciate any other reflections or ideas you have about how this relatively short-term scenario could possibly play out.�</div>
<div><br></div><div><font color="#888888">Ben <br></font></div></blockquote></div></div></div></div><br>