February 22, 2011 <br><br>Cockatoo Chronicles <<a href="http://paulgilding.com/view/cockatoo-chronicles" target="_blank">http://paulgilding.com/view/cockatoo-chronicles</a>> <br><br>Why
didn't more of us see it coming? After all, the signals have been clear<br>enough
- signals that the ecological system that supports human society is<br>hitting
its limits, groaning under the strain of an economy simply too big<br>for
the planet. But we didn't and, as a result, the time to act<br>preventatively
has past.<br><br>Now we must brace for impact. Now comes The Great
Disruption.<br><br>It is true that the coming years won't be pleasant,
as our society and<br>economy hits the wall and then realigns around
what was always an obvious<br>reality: You cannot have infinite growth
on a finite planet. Not 'should<br>not', or 'better not', but cannot.<br><br>We
can, however, get through what's ahead - if we prepare. I wrote my<br>forthcoming
book, The Great Disruption, to help us do that. My conclusion in<br>writing
it was this: not only can we make it through, we can come out the<br>other
side in better shape.<br><br>First, though, back to the present. There
are countless analyses and metrics<br>that clearly describe and record
what is happening - our children will<br>surely look back at what we can
see now and ask, "What were you thinking?"<br>One is oil prices, again
on the way up, driven by surging demand in the<br>developing world. Peak
oil, long considered a fringe theory, is now widely<br>acknowledged as
inevitable, if not underway.<br><br>Leaked US diplomatic cables show
evidence that oil reserves have been<br>overstated, along with German
military reports framing the connected<br>security threat and comments
by the UK energy secretary that the risk is<br>real. No surprises here.
Consumption has been outstripping the discovery of<br>new reserves for a
long time and, as production peaks, prices will rise -<br>probably
dramatically - with major economic consequences. Obvious to those<br>who
look.<br><br>An even more obvious concern is food. More than anything
else, I believe<br>food will come to define our entry into this period.
Food prices, after<br>hovering around long-term highs for several years,<br><<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/04/world/04food.html" target="_blank">http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/04/world/04food.html</a>>
are now passing the<br>extreme peaks of 2008 as climate chaos takes
hold.<br><br>With our population growing and our diets moving to more
energy- and<br>grain-intensive meat production, supply was already
tight. So, when record<br>heat waves and drought hit Russia, crashing
their wheat harvest and leading<br>to an export ban, the global price
response was rapid.<br><br>Next was Brazil. Did you hear about the
so-called 'one in one hundred-year'<br>drought in 2005 in the Amazon?
Well there was another one in 2010, but this<br>time worse. It appears
that the Amazon, last year, was a dramatic net<br>emitter of greenhouse
gases rather than an absorber. Strange days indeed.<br><br>But actually
not that strange, and certainly not surprising - you increase<br>the
thickness of the earth's blanket and it gets warmer. Despite the wishful<br>thinking
of some, the global climate is behaving as the climate models<br>forecast
it would - a bit worse than expected but broadly in line. Indeed,<br>2010
tied with 2005 as the hottest year on record and, by year's end, the<br>sea
temperature off Australia was the warmest ever recorded.<br><br>With
warm oceans releasing more water vapour, we saw floods of biblical<br>proportions
hit the agricultural regions of Queensland, killing 22 people<br>and
impacting an area larger than France and Germany. The floods were<br>quickly
followed by one of the most intense cyclone ever to hit Queensland.<br>Not
good for food supplies, so expect prices to keep rising, especially<br>considering
that this was not a localised problem. Climate chaos is now<br>worldwide,
with an unprecedented 19 countries<br><<a href="http://climateprogress.org/2010/12/23/the-year-of-living-dangerously-master" target="_blank">http://climateprogress.org/2010/12/23/the-year-of-living-dangerously-master</a><br>
s-weather-extremes-climate-<div>change/>
breaking temperature records in 2010.<br><br>Think that was just a bad
year? Think again. Writing at Salon.com, Andrew<br>Leonard<br><<a href="http://www.salon.com/technology/how_the_world_works/2011/02/09/armageddon_a" target="_blank">http://www.salon.com/technology/how_the_world_works/2011/02/09/armageddon_a</a><br>
gain/index.html>
argued recently that this may all come to a head in China.<br>He quotes
the UN, who've just warned that a severe drought is "threatening<br>the
wheat crop in China, the world's largest wheat producer, and resulting<br>in
shortages of drinking water for people and livestock." According to<br><<a href="http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/china/2011-02/08/c_13722789.htm" target="_blank">http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/china/2011-02/08/c_13722789.htm</a>>
a<br>Xinhua report, if serious rain doesn't fall by the end of this
month, the<br>key grain producing region of Shandong will face its worst
drought in 200<br>years. Of course, 200 years ago they didn't have 1.3
billion mouths to feed.<br>Imagine China facing a food shortage and,
with plenty of money in the bank,<br>going on a global shopping spree to
feed itself. This,<br><<a href="http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/rising-food-prices-may-be-climate-call-t" target="_blank">http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/rising-food-prices-may-be-climate-call-t</a><br>o-action-author-says>
argues food expert Lester Brown, could be China in<br>2011. Enjoy your
daily bread while you can still afford it.<br><br>Maybe it will rain
there again soon - but next time? People are starting to<br>understand
that this type of thing is not a one off. Commenting on rising<br>food
prices, Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman<br><<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/07/opinion/07krugman.html?" target="_blank">http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/07/opinion/07krugman.html?</a>>
wrote in The New<br>York Times recently: "The evidence does, in fact,
suggest that what we're<br>getting now is a first taste of the
disruption, economic and political, that<br>we'll face in a warming
world. And given our failure to act on greenhouse<br>gases, there will
be much more, and much worse, to come."<br><br>But don't panic. We will
wake up soon. Not because the ecosystem is showing<br>signs of major
breakdown. Not because people are drowning. No, we will wake<br>up
because something much more important to us is now clearly threatened.<br>When
you try to create infinite growth on a finite planet, only two things<br>can
change: Either the planet gets bigger, which seems unlikely, or the<br>economy
stops growing. It's the end of economic growth that will really get<br>our
attention.<br><br>There is surprisingly good news in all of this. We as
humans have long been<br>very good in a crisis. We ignore our health
issues until the heart attack;<br>our unwise lifestyle choices until the
cancer diagnosis. We ignore our badly<br>designed financial system
until the economic crisis; or the threat of Hitler<br>until the brink of
war. Again and again, we respond to problems late, but<br>dramatically -
and, crucially, effectively. Slow, but not stupid.<br><br>This is a
good attribute, given what's coming. We're going to have to<br>transform
our economy very rapidly, including our energy, transport and<br>agricultural
systems. This transition - to a zero net CO2 economy - will<br>soon be
underway and the business and economic opportunities for those who<br>are
ready (and risks to those who aren't) are hard to overstate.<br><br>That's
why China is getting ready to win this race, with significantly more<br>impressive
programs to capture the opportunity than most Western countries.<br>They
understand that in the new world that is unfolding, being a 'solar<br>power'
will define geopolitical strength. Maybe the United States will start<br>late,
but strongly, surging out of Silicon Valley with a technology boom<br>ready
to disrupt and reinvigorate the world again. Time will tell - and<br>probably
sooner than you think.<br><br>There's much more to this than
technology, though, with some exciting<br>cultural and political
challenges ahead as well. In a growth-constrained<br>world, our current
central economic policy of 'keep calm and carry on<br>shopping' is
looking increasingly wrongheaded. It's certainly insufficient<br>for
continued human development. (More good news there, however, because all<br>the
research suggests that shopping, or more specifically accruing more<br>money
and more stuff, is a very poor way to increase your happiness, once<br>you're
out of absolute poverty.)<br><br>In response to the now inevitable
crisis, we will demand our governments<br>think more deeply. We will
have to adopt policies known to improve quality<br>of life, like
encouraging community, social inclusion and - the most<br>heretical idea
of all - greater equality and a <<a href="http://steadystate.org/" target="_blank">http://steadystate.org/</a>><br>steady state economy.
Interesting times indeed.<br><br>Taking all this together, we can now
say with a high degree of certainty<br>that change is going to start
coming thick and fast. Change in our economy,<br>in our politics, and in
our lives. Change that will be challenging, but that<br>will ultimately
lead us to a better place.<br><br>So get ready for the ride. The Great
Disruption is now underway.<br></div><br clear="all"><br>-- <br>P2P Foundation: <a href="http://p2pfoundation.net" target="_blank">http://p2pfoundation.net</a> - <a href="http://blog.p2pfoundation.net" target="_blank">http://blog.p2pfoundation.net</a> <br>
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<br>Think tank: <a href="http://www.asianforesightinstitute.org/index.php/eng/The-AFI" target="_blank">http://www.asianforesightinstitute.org/index.php/eng/The-AFI</a><br><br><br><br><br>