<br><br><div class="gmail_quote">---------- Forwarded message ----------<br>From: <b class="gmail_sendername">jose ramos</b> <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:jose@actionforesight.net">jose@actionforesight.net</a>></span><br>
Date: Tue, May 31, 2011 at 1:09 PM<br>Subject: Invitation to contribute to Journal of Futures Studies symposium on Global Mega Crisis<br>To: Michel Bauwens <<a href="mailto:michelsub2004@gmail.com">michelsub2004@gmail.com</a>><br>
<br><br>Hi Michel<br>
<br>
<br>
JFS is running a symposium on "Global Mega Crisis" <br>
jose<br>
<br>
-------------------------------------<br>
<br>
"Global Mega Crisis" describes the dramatic challenges that humanity<br>
faces at the moment. Michael and Bill have developed a "Survey of Four<br>
Scenarios on a Pessimism-Optimism Axis" built around a number of<br>
emerging issues and trends. The symposium, through the Journal of<br>
Futures Studies, will help develop a stronger shared analysis and<br>
understanding of the challenges humanity faces at the moment, by<br>
eliciting short essay responses from a variety of people and<br>
perspectives.<br>
<br>
Please see our invitation overview below. I've�attached Bill and<br>
Michael's article in pdf format. �I have also included a pdf version<br>
of the invitation for your reference.<br>
<br>
I hope you will consider joining our debate.<br>
<br>
Yours<br>
<br>
Jose<br>
<br>
----------------------------------------------------------------------------<br>
<br>
FROM: Michael Marien, William Halal, and Jose Ramos<br>
<br>
RE: �Invitation to respond to �Global MegaCrisis:<br>
Four Scenarios on the Future of Progress�<br>
Special Issue, Journal of Futures Studies, Dec 2011<br>
<br>
<br>
� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � INTRODUCTION<br>
<br>
� � � The fundamental question in serious futures-thinking has to do with<br>
the idea of human progress. �All matters considered, will life be<br>
better for humanity as a whole, for countries and organizations, for<br>
communities and families, and for individuals in the decades ahead?<br>
Until the past decade or so, progress was widely assumed. �But in<br>
recent years this assumption has become problematic. �The Great<br>
Recession, still unfolding in some places, has dampened prospects for<br>
many. �The multiple threats of global climate change and more extreme<br>
weather events darken the long-range horizon. �World population<br>
continues to grow, despite a declining rate of growth, and food,<br>
water, and energy issues are emerging. �Political polarization and<br>
gridlock appears widespread. �On the positive side, many new<br>
technologies are emerging that can potentially alleviate if not<br>
�solve� some if not many of these problems. �So, overall, should we be<br>
very negative about future prospects, largely negative, largely<br>
positive, or very positive?<br>
� � � � � The two authors of the lead essay have engaged in a public<br>
debate on this question over the past two years. �We both agree that a<br>
�Global MegaCrisis� is emerging, if not yet entirely here for all<br>
areas of the world. �We disagree as to the outlook: Halal believes<br>
that new technology will probably make things better; Marien argues<br>
that it is possible but not likely, too little too late. �After<br>
exchanging several long e-mails, we published our first version of<br>
this debate in World Future Review (1:5, Oct-Nov 2009). �A second and<br>
more popularized version appeared in The Futurist (45:3, May-June<br>
2011). �A third version appeared in World Affairs: The Journal of<br>
International Issues, 2011.<br>
� � � This version refines our dispute and adds some new references.<br>
Similar to the other versions, it seeks to engage readers in<br>
discussion and debate through the device of four scenarios on a single<br>
axis of pessimism and optimism. �By quantifying the rough<br>
probabilities of the four scenarios, one can easily see where one<br>
stands in relation to others on this scale. �But then one must ask if<br>
the arguments for the assigned probabilities are persuasive. �And many<br>
arguments can and should be made for each scenario.<br>
� � � The value of this exercise is not only to put the idea of progress on<br>
center stage, where it rightly belongs, but to encourage reflection on<br>
the two more complex middle scenarios (the largely negative �Muddling<br>
Down� and the largely positive �Muddling Up�), rather than the extreme<br>
negative position (of widespread disaster, Armageddon, species<br>
extinction, all-out nuclear war, or collapse of capitalism in all<br>
forms) or the extreme positive position (often implicit, but made<br>
explicit by those advocating the technological Singularity and/or<br>
widespread change of consciousness).<br>
� � � The Journal of Futures Studies is inviting a number of distinguished<br>
futurists and other futures-oriented thinkers, as well as several<br>
students, to ponder these scenarios.<br>
<br>
The only caveats are that each respondent must:<br>
<br>
1) Stay within a limit of between 500 and 1,000 words;<br>
2) Quantify (% wise) the likelihood of each of the four scenarios over<br>
the next decade and provide some argument in support of the position<br>
taken; or provide a short argument why you chose to not quantify, or<br>
your argument against the approach taken in this special issue (or<br>
possible argument for an alternative);<br>
3) Submit your response by September 10th 2011 to give W. Halal and<br>
M. Marien time to formulate a conclusion. Email response to:<br>
<a href="mailto:jose@actionforesight.net">jose@actionforesight.net</a> ;<br>
4) Format your contribution using JFS editorial guidelines:<br>
<a href="http://www.jfs.tku.edu.tw/invauthors.html" target="_blank">http://www.jfs.tku.edu.tw/invauthors.html</a> .<br>
<br>
Halal and Marien will attempt to briefly respond to most or all of<br>
these comments. �And maybe, as events in our age of turmoil,<br>
uncertainty, and multiple transformations unfold over the next few<br>
years, we might try this exercise again.<br>
<br>
About the Special Editors<br>
<br>
Michael Marien edited Future Survey for the World Futures Society for<br>
30 years, preparing some 21,000 abstracts, and is now embarking on<br>
establishing the website: GlobalForesightBooks.org, which is broader<br>
and more timely than Future Survey, albeit not as deep. GFB.org now<br>
has some 2500 mini-abstracts of futures-relevant books published since<br>
early 2009, and long "Book of the Month" abstracts, most of which<br>
underlie his emerging worldview. Michael Marien describes himself as a<br>
�biophilic post-Unitarian nondenominational social scientist who hangs<br>
out with futurists.� �He has a �(1970) Ph.D. in Social Science and<br>
National Planning, and is a Fellow of the World Academy of Art and<br>
Science.<br>
<br>
William E. Halal (Ph.D.) is professor emeritus of management,<br>
technology, and innovation at George Washington University (GWU), with<br>
degrees from Purdue and UC Berkeley. �He has published 7 books and<br>
hundreds of articles, consults to corporations and governments, and is<br>
a frequent speaker, once substituting for Peter Drucker. Halal is also<br>
president of TechCast LLC � a virtual think tank tracking the<br>
technology revolution. TechCast was cited by the National Academies as<br>
one of the best forecasting systems available, and has been featured<br>
in the Washington Post, Newsweek, and other publications. Halal also<br>
co-founded the GWU Institute for Knowledge & Innovation. Previously,<br>
he served as a major in the Air Force, worked as an aerospace engineer<br>
on the Apollo Program and as a manager in Silicon Valley. He received<br>
the 1977 Mitchell Prize for his article �Beyond the Profit-Motive,�<br>
and was cited by the Encyclopedia of the Future as one of the top 100<br>
futurists in the world.<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
-------------<br>
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