[P2P-F] Fwd: [CommonGood] For those interested: The Brexit Deal

Wed Dec 30 14:03:47 CET 2020

---------- Forwarded message ---------
From: Birgit Daiber <bir.dai at hotmail.com>
Date: Wed, Dec 30, 2020 at 2:20 AM
Subject: [CommonGood] For those interested: The Brexit Deal
To: commongood at listi.jpberlin.de <commongood at listi.jpberlin.de>

Dear Friends and Colleagues, Micheal Roberts gives a much better analysis
of the Brexit Deal than all the information I read up to now.
Please find his text below. Yours, Birgit

Birgit Daiber
CP 28 I-98055 Lipari (ME)
www.birgitdaiber.eu
+393664207762
------------------------------
*From:* Michael Roberts Blog <comment-reply at wordpress.com>
*Sent:* Tuesday, December 29, 2020 6:43 PM
*To:* bir.dai at hotmail.com <bir.dai at hotmail.com>
*Subject:* [New post] The Brexit deal

michael roberts posted: "The UK finally leaves the European Union on 31
December, after 48 years of membership.  The initial decision to leave,
made in the special referendum back in June 2016, has taken over four
tortuous years to implement.  So what does the deal mean for Briti"
Respond to this post by replying above this line
New post on *Michael Roberts Blog*
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The
Brexit deal
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by
michael roberts
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The UK finally leaves the European Union on 31 December, after 48 years of
membership.  The initial decision to leave, made in the special referendum
back in June 2016, has taken over four tortuous years to implement.  So
what does the deal mean for British capital and labour?

For British manufacturers, the tariff-free regime of the EU’s internal
market has been maintained.  But the British government will have to
renegotiate new bilateral treaties with governments across the world,
whereas previously they were included within EU deals.  People will no
longer be able to work freely in both economies by right, all goods will
require significant additional paperwork to cross borders and some will be
checked extensively to verify they comply with local regulatory standards.
Frictionless trade is over; indeed, that's even between Northern Ireland
and mainland Britain with a new customs border across the Irish Sea.

And that’s just goods trade, where the EU is the destination of 57% of
British industrial goods.  The British government fought tooth and nail to
protect the fishing industry (and failed), but it contributes only 0.04% of
UK GDP, while the services sector contributes over 70%.  Of course, most of
this is not exported, but still services exports contribute 30% to UK GDP.
And 40% of that services trade is with the EU directly.

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Indeed, while the UK runs a huge goods trade deficit with the EU, that is
in part compensated by running a surplus in services trade with the EU.
This surplus is in mainly financial and professional services where the
City of London leads.  Exports of UK financial services are worth £60
billion annually compared to imports of £15 billion. And 43% of financial
services exports go to the EU.

The Brexit deal with the EU has done nothing for this sector. Professional
services providers will lose their ability automatically to work in the EU
after the Brexit deal failed to obtain pan-EU mutual recognition of
professional qualifications. This means that professions from doctors and
vets to engineers and architects must have their qualifications recognised
in each EU member state where they want to work.

And the deal does not cover financial services access to EU markets, which
is still to be determined by a separate process under which the EU will
either unilaterally grant “equivalence” to the UK and its regulated
companies or leave firms to seek permissions from individual member
states.  Over the next year, there may well be bit by bit agreements on
trade in these areas.  But the UK service sector is bound to end up worse
off for its exports than was the case within the EU.

And that’s serious because the UK is a ‘rentier’ economy that depends
heavily on its financial and business services sector
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Financial services contribute 7% of UK GDP, some 40% higher a contribution
than in Germany, France or Japan.

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The UK is a country of bankers, lawyers, accountants and media people,
rather than engineers, builders and manufacturers.  The UK has a huge
top-heavy banking sector, but a small manufacturing sector compared to
other G7 economies.

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What about the impact on working people?  On leaving the EU, what little
British labour has gained from EU regulations will be in jeopardy within a
country which is already the most deregulated in the OECD.  The EU rules
included a 48-hour week maximum (riddled with exemptions); health and
safety regulations; regional and social subsidies; science funding;
environmental checks; and of course, above all, free movement of labour.
All that is going or being minimised.

Around 3.7% of the total EU workforce – 3 million people – now work in a
member state other than their own. Since 1987, over 3.3 million students
and 470,000 teaching staﬀ have taken part in the EU’s Erasmus programme.
That programme will exclude Britons from now on.  Immigration into the UK
from EU countries has been significant; but it also works the other way;
with many Brits working and living in continental Europe. With the UK out
of the EU, Britons will be subject to work visas and other costs that will
be greater than the total money per person saved from contributions to the
EU.

On balance, EU immigrants (indeed all immigrants) have contributed more to
the UK economy in taxes (income and VAT), in filling low-paid jobs
(hospitals, hotels, restaurants, farming, transport) than they have taken
up (in extra cost of schools, public services etc).  That’s because most
are young (often single) and help pay pension contributions for those Brits
who are retired.  The Brexit referendum has already brought about a sharp
drop in net immigration into the UK from the EU, down 50-100,000 and still
falling.  That can only add to the loss of national income and tax revenues
down the road.

Most sober estimates of the impact of leaving the EU suggest that the UK
economy will grow more slowly in real terms than it would have done if it
had remained a member.  Mainstream economic institutes, including the Bank
of England, reckon that there would be a cumulative loss in real GDP for
the UK over the next ten to 15 years of between 4-10% of GDP from leaving
the EU; or about 0.4% points off annual GDP growth. That’s a cumulative 3%
of GDP loss per person, equivalent to about £1000 per person per year.

The UK’s Office for Budget Responsibility reckons that one third of this
relative loss has already taken place because of the reduction in the pace
of business investment since the referendum as domestic businesses stopped
investing much, due to uncertainty about the Brexit deal along with a sharp
drop in foreign inward investment.

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And then of course, the COVID pandemic has decimated business activity.  In
2020., the UK will suffer the largest fall in GDP among major economies
apart from Spain and recover more slowly than others in 2021.

British capitalism was already slipping badly before the pandemic hit.  Its
trade deficit with the rest of the world had widened to around 6% of GDP;
and real GDP growth had slid back from over 2% a year to below 1.5%, with
industrial production crawling along at 1%.  The UK economy already had weak
investment and productivity
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growth compared with the 1990s and with other OECD countries
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.

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Investment in technology and R&D has been poor, more than one-third less
than the OECD average.

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And the reason for this is clear. The average profitability of British
capital has been falling.  Even before the pandemic hit in 2020, average
profitability (according to official statistics) was 30% below the level of
the late 1990s and, excluding the Great Recession, was at an all-time low.

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Since the referendum of 2016, UK profitability has fallen by nearly 9%,
compared to small rises in the Eurozone and the US.  And the Eurozone AMECO
forecast for profitability will leave the UK 18% below 2015 levels by 2022!

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As a result, investment by British capital is set to plunge and is forecast
to be down a staggering 60% by 2022 compared to the referendum year of 2016.

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But maybe the UK can confound these dismal forecasts, as the government
claims, because UK industry and the City of London can now expand across
the world 'free from the shackles' of EU regulation.  And it is
increasingly clear how it thinks it can do this – by turning Britain into a
tax and regulation-free base for foreign multinationals.  The government is
planning ‘free ports’ or zones; areas with little to no tax in order to
encourage economic activity. While located geographically within a country,
they essentially exist outside its borders for tax purposes.  Companies
operating within free ports can benefit from deferring the payment of taxes
until their products are moved elsewhere or can avoid them altogether if
they bring in goods to store or manufacture on site before exporting them
again.

Unfortunately, for the government, studies show
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that free ports might simply defer the point when taxes are paid, as
imports would still need to reach final customers across the country. And
the incentives may also promote the relocation of activity that would have
taken place anyway, from one part of the UK to another. Moreover, tax
breaks could mean a loss of revenue for the Treasury. And free ports risk
facilitating money laundering and tax evasion, as goods are usually not
subject to checks that are standard elsewhere.  A deregulated Britain will
not restore economic growth, let alone good, well-paid jobs for an educated
and skilled workforce.  It will only boost the profits of multi-nationals,
using cheap, unskilled labour.

In sum, the Brexit deal is another obstacle to sustained economic growth
for Britain. But the COVID pandemic slump and the underlying weakness of
British capital are much more damaging to the UK's economic future than
Brexit. Brexit is just an extra burden for British capital to face; as it
also will be for British households.
*michael roberts
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| December 29, 2020 at 5:42 pm | Categories: capitalism
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economics
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