[P2P-F] Fwd: Weekend Roundup: China is laying the groundwork for a post-American world order

[Michel Bauwens]

on the new imperial world order in the making, under Chinese domination:


---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: The WorldPost <news at theworldpost.com>
Date: Sat, Jul 28, 2018 at 1:01 PM
Subject: Weekend Roundup: China is laying the groundwork for a
post-American world order
To: michel at p2pfoundation.net


A China-led world order would be based on interests, not values.
Weekend Roundup: China is laying the groundwork for a post-American world
order
A China-led world order would be based on interests, not values.

Nathan Gardels, Editor in Chief
Visit the WorldPost at http://www.theworldpost.com
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A map of the new Silk Road, connecting Asia to Europe. (Maxiphoto/Getty)
As the United States abandons the postwar multilateral system it once led,
China is stepping into the breach, laying the groundwork for a
post-American world order.

We are already getting a glimpse of what is to come through China’s various
initiatives, ranging from the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB)
to the Belt and Road project and the 16+1 group, which is developing
Chinese-financed projects in Eastern Europe and the Balkans. China is also
seeking to connect a global electricity grid
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powered
by wind and solar as a means to sustain development while fighting climate
change.

This new order will not be like the old. At least for now, it is not
multilateral but comprised of multiple bilateral relationships linked to
the Chinese core. And given China’s “one world, many systems” perspective,
it is based not on a convergence of values, but of interests.

President Xi Jinping has cast these initiatives with a positive spin as
building “a community of shared future for mankind.” The most cynical
critics regard them as a thin fig leaf disguising China’s quest for global
dominance and merely a means to find markets for overproduction as its
domestic economy slows. Xi’s vision is also clouded by manifold reports of
debt overload and kickbacks for corrupt leaders. In Sri Lanka, China has
taken over a port it built because Sri Lanka couldn’t afford the debt. The
same dynamic seems to be developing in Pakistan
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and
Laos; the new Malaysian government, meanwhile, has put its Chinese-financed
rail project on hold, citing corruption and disadvantageous terms
negotiated by the previous regime.

There is no mileage in being naive about China’s ambitions and its
self-interested motives. But lining up with hostility against China’s
initiatives the way Joseph Stalin and his minions did toward the Marshall
Plan after World War II — which did wonders for a devastated Europe while
also benefiting the United States through purchases of imports from
American companies that were required to cross the Atlantic on American
merchant ships — is a mistaken course for the West. And let’s not forget
that the American expansion of railroads
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westward
in the 19th century also led to a crisis of corruption and
over-indebtedness. Despite the turmoil and losses, when it was all sorted
out, the result in the end was a connected continent that became a
foundation of American prosperity.

Twenty years from now, the same will likely be true of Eurasia and Africa
as a result of China’s initiatives, even with all of their faults. That is
why, to diminish the downsides, the proper stance would be for the West to
join with China’s efforts at global development so that the process is more
transparent and less corrupt, with terms that don’t foster debt traps and
amount to creditor imperialism. The experience of the “clean, lean and
green” AIIB, which many Western nations — though not the United States —
have joined, shows that high standards can be imposed if the West is a
participant instead of an outsider as the new order is being built.

After all, it is not as if Western nations on their own are going to
finance and construct infrastructure around the world. No one needs
reminding that the United States has been unable to build a single
high-speed rail project anywhere on its vast territory. By and large, it
can’t even manage to finance the repair of old infrastructure, much less
invest in anything new. The European Union remains mired in deep
disagreements about how to manage its own internal finances.

While critics carp from the sidelines, those in need of help are grateful.
“When we were faced with financial crisis, amidst the wider challenges of
the E.U., China helped us,” Greece’s former prime minister George
Papandreou recalled in a recent conversation with me. “China was one of the
few nations to buy our sovereign bonds. This was an important vote of
confidence. Then China began its investment in the Port of Piraeus, an
early investment that is now one of the major components of the new
maritime Silk Road. These investments showed great trust in my country’s
capacity to overcome the crisis, where few others would.”

In The WorldPost this week, we address these issues of a growing vacuum in
the world order and China’s attempt to fill it, for good and for ill.

Ali Wyne
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sees
the demise of the American-led postwar order as less a consequence of
President Trump’s wrecking ball and more a victim of its own success. That
order, built to avoid another devastating world war among major powers,
achieved its goal. Along with an open trading regime, it was this stable
absence of global conflict that enabled China’s peaceful rise.

The result of success, Wyne contends, has been a complacency that has
eroded the founding urgency that sustained a broad and deep commitment of
states and their publics. That makes revitalizing the order a challenge.
“The modernization of the world order would ideally result from farsighted
diplomacy,” writes Wyne. “It is more likely, though, that policymakers will
do little more than push for incremental improvements to an inadequate
system” thereby allowing “forces — ranging from external challenges to
populist uprisings — to continue testing its foundations. The potential
result of indefinite erosion — a vacuum in order, without a coherent
alternative to replace it — is unpalatable.”

Noting that the creation of new orders has historically followed upon
cataclysmic events like the world wars, Wyne concludes: “In a nuclear age,
though, it is terrifying to consider what might have to occur for a new
order to emerge.”

To the extent that China is fostering an alternative to the vacuum, Jonathan
Hillman
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doesn’t
like what he sees. “The Belt and Road is a masterstroke in geopolitical
advertising. Wrapping the effort in Silk Road mythology, Xi is effectively
selling a Sino-centric order to the world,” he writes from Budapest. “In
practice, the Belt and Road is a sea of bilateral deals between China and
participating countries, including many markets where few others dare to
go. More than half
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of
the countries participating in the Belt and Road have sovereign debt
ratings that are either junk or not graded. China’s emphasis on building
big-ticket infrastructure projects resonates with foreign leaders looking
to impress at home and establish a legacy.”

For Hillman, this mix of a debt trap with the megalomania of corrupt local
autocrats will not spell stability and progress but a costly waste of
resources as nations become tributaries beholden to Chinese largesse.

As China extends its influence globally, it will inexorably be drawn into
local conflicts, just as the United States was in its period of dominance.
“For decades, Beijing refrained from meddling with sovereign nations’
internal affairs,” Denise Hruby
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writes
from Juba, South Sudan, where the China National Petroleum Company owns a
40 percent share of the country’s largest oil fields. “As long as economic
ties flourished, it would turn a blind eye toward human rights abuses and
corruption. But with increasing investments abroad comes more clout, and as
the United States scales back its international commitments, China is
emerging as an obvious development partner.”

Hruby reports that while China initially sought a direct role in ending the
South Sudan conflict, which threatens its investments, it was soon
overwhelmed by the complexity of militia and tribal politics. China fields
its largest contingent of U.N. peacekeeping forces there, but it has
reverted to a stance that “African problems must have African solutions”
and looks to the African Union and other local mediators to resolve the
crisis while it stands on the sidelines.

Jeffrey Sachs
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sees
Trump’s effort to staunch China’s newfound influence while abandoning
America’s own successful model of development as achieving the opposite of
its intent. “American prosperity since World War II has been built upon
science and technology breakthroughs spurred by a powerful innovation
system linking the federal government, business, academia and venture
capital,” he writes. “U.S. innovation policy has been successfully emulated
in Europe and Asia, most recently by China. President Trump’s trade war
against China aims to slow China’s technology ascent but is misguided and
doomed to fail; instead, American prosperity should be assured by doing
what America does best: innovating at home and trading with the rest of the
world.”
Nathan Gardels
<http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001917-aFh9W34o9dcZLVw0Cv5cCta0WcCUqk9WreDZi42bD8aVocj6_6QZ0SYDShBjqgfYTNLyLccCtImGQ0WOW8eR3HDTUtjJL4yIk2lMT6lN5CrphDomd-xmijgmj-7SDdueCmsj2mU8PbsjKdWfbOgM1L8AZgjB&c=8fZCAprkMdX-wu9Csiz0W9FvEXhKdVGVl9-2Aer1Pxi_agEzPllpaw==&ch=LV-W55rccbeGXxr9-bhTD6lRQUfVfNek1_AGMzBGQJixfRie0fTy4Q==>,
Editor in Chief
Kathleen Miles
<http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001917-aFh9W34o9dcZLVw0Cv5cCta0WcCUqk9WreDZi42bD8aVocj6_6QZ0SYDShBjgPcseIO7poarG_AuUtn26sbh7hJjLVtBpSuttdw9ZadzvzOwaOW7IPr-OomoL69Sx8B5QuPP2O6v_yh8kIdzVEeMMGsy0w-5&c=8fZCAprkMdX-wu9Csiz0W9FvEXhKdVGVl9-2Aer1Pxi_agEzPllpaw==&ch=LV-W55rccbeGXxr9-bhTD6lRQUfVfNek1_AGMzBGQJixfRie0fTy4Q==>,
Executive Editor
Dawn Nakagawa
<http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001917-aFh9W34o9dcZLVw0Cv5cCta0WcCUqk9WreDZi42bD8aVocj6_6QZ0SYDShBj8zgn-DgcqkllF18Fmaef9ngexaD14rssxLGBR8kE_8KfS8RHYSZW6FyHQGcU0zBhX57JW7svFjEZ-VGs9MHLSnE1cQy_aPXl&c=8fZCAprkMdX-wu9Csiz0W9FvEXhKdVGVl9-2Aer1Pxi_agEzPllpaw==&ch=LV-W55rccbeGXxr9-bhTD6lRQUfVfNek1_AGMzBGQJixfRie0fTy4Q==>,
Vice President of Operations
Peter Mellgard
<http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001917-aFh9W34o9dcZLVw0Cv5cCta0WcCUqk9WreDZi42bD8aVocj6_6QZ0SYDShBjUZK5kQAbrrmAWTGQNDB6gU3js_9_2M8Y3-_zDh__Ow26UtC10t4QjBFanaPOAiMnUzExZNXu3HtZ8QGLWYEtPj2RL65DcX-c&c=8fZCAprkMdX-wu9Csiz0W9FvEXhKdVGVl9-2Aer1Pxi_agEzPllpaw==&ch=LV-W55rccbeGXxr9-bhTD6lRQUfVfNek1_AGMzBGQJixfRie0fTy4Q==>,
Features Editor
Alex Gardels
<http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?f=001917-aFh9W34o9dcZLVw0Cv5cCta0WcCUqk9WreDZi42bD8aVocj6_6QZ0SYDShBj0iZTmDX_ySAUWzrlxFF3alFiDZxYcOY4blUF8HIsnPBPvshIobPoQX_WEgKAGobUqjXxn8G894toqHBEsXzPcu3ByyMYTvF3&c=8fZCAprkMdX-wu9Csiz0W9FvEXhKdVGVl9-2Aer1Pxi_agEzPllpaw==&ch=LV-W55rccbeGXxr9-bhTD6lRQUfVfNek1_AGMzBGQJixfRie0fTy4Q==>,
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Associate Editor
Rosa O’Hara
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Social Editor

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