[P2P-F] Fwd: FW: Long-Term Investing Trends In Global Future Scenarios

Wed Aug 8 04:50:22 CEST 2018

triple book review

---------- Forwarded message ---------
From: Hazel Henderson <hazel.henderson at ethicalmarkets.com>
Date: Tue, Aug 7, 2018 at 5:48 PM
Subject: FW: Long-Term Investing Trends In Global Future Scenarios
To: Ethical Markets <gogreen at ethicalmarkets.com>

Dear Global Advisors and Judges Panel,

FYI, my latest article.

OK to circulate and comments welcome.

Hazel

*Long-Term Investing Trends In Global Future Scenarios*

Aug. 6, 2018 9:35 PM ET

Published: SeekingAlpha
<https://seekingalpha.com/article/4195539-long-term-investing-trends-global-future-scenarios?v=1533605712&comments=show>

Includes: AAPL <https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AAPL>, AMZN
<https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AMZN>, FB
<https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/FB>, GOOG
<https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GOOG>, GOOGL
<https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GOOGL>, NFLX
<https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NFLX>

[image: Hazel Henderson]
<https://seekingalpha.com/author/hazel-henderson/articles>

Hazel Henderson <https://seekingalpha.com/author/hazel-henderson/articles>

Green Economy, Circular Economy, energy, natural resources

Ethical Markets <http://www.ethicalmarkets.com>

*Summary*

   - “Imaginal Cells” distills views of future possibilities by global
   luminaries, curated by editors Kim Polman and Stephen Vasconcellos-Sharpe.
   - “A New Reality” expands on “The Survival of the Wisest” (1972) by the
   late Jonas Salk, updated by his son, Jonathan Salk, outlining paths for
   human evolution for a sustainable future.
   - “Factfulness” sums up the global scientific research on human progress
   of the late legendary statistician Hans Rosling, collated by his children,
   Ola Rosling and Anna Rosling Rönnlund.

As this longest bull market faces an uncertain future of trade wars,
interest rate hikes, debts in government, corporate and household sectors,
this is a time for asset managers to unpack their algos and check their
assumptions for the many structural changes in our societies and
globalization patterns.

These three books lay out an array of positive trends and overlooked
possibilities for our human future – a welcome antidote for investors to
today’s ever more serious global problems, trends and alarming scenarios.
However serious and real these trends: from global climate change,
terrorism, species extinctions to financial crises, inequality, cybercrime
and nuclear threats, we humans must also keep all the good news of our
global situation and the positive trends firmly in mind.

These three books are the best recent antidotes for investors I have found
to dispel the negativity and cynicism that inhibit the real reforms,
courageous civic action needed at all levels to innovate, create and evolve
the possible futures that await humanity. Their authors and co-editors have
curated and present all these future opportunities from environmental,
economic, financial, social and humanistic perspectives.

In “Imaginal Cells” editors Polman and Vasconcellos-Sharpe, Reboot the
Future, (2017), also co-founders of the non-profit Reboot The Future
<http://www.rebootthefuture.org/> use the well-known life cycle of
butterflies: from the lowly caterpillar gorged on eating, changing into a
chrysalis and finally opening to the gorgeous emerging butterfly. This
transformation process often seen in nature, is a powerful metaphor for
many human organizations, companies, communities and in our lives. This
shape-shifting of an organism’s form and structure is performed by the
activities of a special group of “imaginal cells” within the body of the
caterpillar, which gradually re-group and re-shape the organism into the
chrysalis and finally into the emerging butterfly.

No metaphor could be more appropriate for the changes and transformations
human societies are now experiencing all over the world: shifting from
fossil-fueled sectors to renewable energy and electric vehicles; from
sprawling suburbs to urban revivals; from wasteful methods to the circular
economies upcycling all inputs for future use – even startups capturing CO2
for making cement and plastics. We report on these deep global processes
reshaping global finance and energy sectors in our annual tracking of
private investments in our Green Transition Scoreboard®
<http://www.ethicalmarkets.com/gts-reports-and-press-releases/>. Many CEOs,
start-up entrepreneurs and venture investors are undergoing similar
structural changes. Government agencies, academia and religious
organizations are also changing in fundamental ways along with digital
disruptions in many sectors including finance, media, retailing, medicine,
law, and our very democratic systems. Many start-ups remain private and
family offices and private equity groups prefer financing them directly
through groups including London-based Family Office Forums in Asia, Europe
and the USA at which we present.

Imaginal Cells reflects the views of many well-respected leaders around the
world: including Archbishop Desmond Tutu and Mo Ibrahim, both leaders in
Africa; Muhammad Yunus, founder of Bangladesh-based Grameen Bank; architect
William McDonough, author of “Cradle to Cradle” (2002) and its
certification for circular economy – designed companies such as
privately-held ECOR <https://ecorglobal.com/>; Paul Polman, CEO of Unilever
(NYSE:UN <https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/UN>), scientist Johan Rockstrom
who researched the “9 Planetary Boundaries“ (pg. 143); former US vice
president Al Gore; Britain’s Jonathon Porritt, founder of Forum for the
Future <https://www.forumforthefuture.org/jonathon-porritt> and Mark
Malloch-Brown with the United Nations ( <https://www.unglobalcompact.org/>(
UN <https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/UN>)) Global Compact
<https://www.unglobalcompact.org/>, and others. Their views summarized in
“Imaginal Cells” reflect their leadership styles. All are similar to those
imaginal cells in nature that embody the possibilities of evolution for
humanity’s next stage on this planet. This inspiring book is also
well-documented and includes lists of additional books and authors fleshing
out all these possibilities for our common future.

In “A New Reality,” Jonathan Salk, City Point Press, (2018) lovingly
updates his father’s ground-breaking “The Survival of the Wisest” first
published in 1972, the same year that MIT published its famous Report to
the Club of Rome: “Limits to Growth,” led by systems analyst/biologist
Donella Meadows. Dr. Jonas Salk, best remembered for his life-saving Salk
vaccine which stemmed the terrible polio epidemic, then turned to the
global issue of human populations as they expanded across the planet –
pressuring its resources and biodiversity. Today, 16 banks collaborate with
Michael Bloomberg and Mark Carney of the Bank of England in re-tooling
financial models in the Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosure (
TCFD <https://www.fsb-tcfd.org/>) and the UN Principles of Responsible
Investing with over $60 trillion of AUM assist in this research – using
future scenarios beyond economic models.

Salk began exploring how the planet’s many species had evolved. He found
two distinct repetitive patterns of statistical S-curves which he labeled
Epoch A and Epoch B. During his observations of the evolution of species in
Epoch A, Salk found maximum resource-consumption, territorial expansion,
rapid growth and out-competing other species for resources. Then as this
upward growth curve began saturating its resource-base, there was a
leveling of the upward curve into a flatter Epoch B: in which behavior
changed to consolidating resources into more sustainable, qualitative
development, co-evolving with other beneficial species through
communication and combining into more efficient, cooperative networks. Salk
rejected “the survival of the fittest” model of competition advocated by
British sociologist Herbert Spencer which he attributed wrongly to Charles
Darwin in the early editions of The Economist (for which the magazine
finally apologized in December 2006).

Salk agreed with Charles Darwin’s view of evolution via natural selection
driven by environmental changes, and that humans have survived due to their
unique abilities, through language and bonding, to cooperate for their
survival and achieved their spectacular planetary success. Obvious evidence
of the successes of cooperation include humanity’s rise from tribal nomadic
bands to settlements and agriculture, to towns, cities, guilds, legal
rules, social norms, and today’s multi-national value-chains and
corporations. Thus, while competition is also necessary, it works best
within cooperative rules-based systems such as the WTO, UN-ratified
agreements, as well as prudential global financial architecture.

This early Salk volume now updated in “A New Reality: Human Evolution for a
Sustainable Future” plots societies’ progression from Epoch A toward Epoch
B scenarios – noting the leveling of human population growth as countries
develop technologically toward better living standards, education, health
and democratic norms while birth rates drop to replacement levels or even
lower. I was lucky enough, along with other futurists, to know Dr. Jonas
Salk. I was enthralled by sharing a breakfast with him as he discussed how
he saw human norms changing with new conditions so as to meet these social
transformations.

Kudos to Jonathan Salk for so expertly updating all these scientific and
social realities in “A New Reality.” Like the future scenarios in “Imaginal
Cells,” this book, gives us both the scientific, metaphoric and modeling
tools to unpack our obsolete algorithms, big data, human-trained machine
learning intelligence (mis-labeled as AI) which still reflect too many
cognitive biases. These mental tools can aid and update our short-term
decision-making and our financial algos, indexes and robo-advisors of our
pension plans, as I pointed out in “AI + Algorithms = Assumptions“, (2017).
<http://www.ethicalmarkets.com/artificial-intelligence-algorithms-assumptions/>

Global statistician Hans Rosling’s work is captured in “Factfulness “by his
diligent children, Ola Rosling and Anna Rosling Rönnlund, Flatiron Books,
(2018). Hans Rosling enthralled me and many other policy wonks at various
UN and EU conferences on world trends. His scientific trend-spotting was
encapsulated and clarified in his hundreds of colorful visual
representations of trends in: national populations, GDP-growth, poverty
gaps, infant mortality, health outcomes, education and social development.
All these are now in this book.

Most of Rosling’s forecasts from the past two decades have been
corroborated and they support the possibilities outlined in “Imaginal
Cells” and “A New Reality.” Microsoft (MSFT
<https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/msft/real-time>) founder Bill Gates and
Melinda Gates recommend “Factfulness “as both “an indispensable guide to
thinking clearly about the world” and as “the secret, silent miracle of
human progress” in their cover comments.

These three books will not only give us scientifically-based hope for our
future, but also the optimism necessary for wise longer-term decisions and
positive actions. They help clarify our technological choices, needed
reforms in our institutions, they illuminate how best to re-purpose our
burgeoning social media and the FAANGs (FB
<https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/fb/real-time>), (AAPL
<https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/aapl/real-time>), (AMZN
<https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/amzn/real-time>), (NFLX
<https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/nflx/real-time>), (GOOGL
<https://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/googl/real-time>) (GOOG
<https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/GOOG>) so as to make more positive
contributions to the now global democratic processes and public discourses
for a brighter future. These books are essential additions to the
bookshelves of impact investors and asset managers, and on public and
private decision-makers’ summer reading lists.

*Hazel Henderson©2018*

*Disclosure:*I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans
to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not
receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no
business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this
article.

*Additional disclosure: *Full Disclosure: The Family Office Forums at which
Hazel Henderson presents Ethical Markets Media research in Asia, Europe and
USA. Hazel Henderson serves as a Technical Advisor to ECOR on the
circular-economy. (Nonpayment as advisor but with stock options if they
become public).

SeekingAlpha Link:

*Long-Term Investing Trends In Global Future Scenarios*
<https://seekingalpha.com/article/4195539-long-term-investing-trends-global-future-scenarios?source=from_friend>
by Hazel Henderson

As this longest bull market faces an uncertain future of trade wars,
interest rate hikes, debts in government, corporate and household sectors,
this is a time for asset managers to unpack their algos and check their
assumptions for the many structural changes in our societies and
globalization patterns. *read more »*
<https://seekingalpha.com/article/4195539-long-term-investing-trends-global-future-scenarios?source=from_friend_readmore>

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