[P2P-F] 3D printing: a threat to global trade

[Michel Bauwens]

i agree, it's going to be more than just 3d printing,

nevertheless, this report is really grist to our mill in terms of the
legitimacy and realism of cosmo-local production,

Michel

On Fri, Oct 6, 2017 at 8:13 PM, Bob Haugen <bob.haugen at gmail.com> wrote:

> I don't doubt that more-automated local production is coming, but I wonder
> if 3d printing is too narrow a focus. For example,
>
> Quality of 3D printed products falls short in some cases (Reeves and
> Mendis, 2015).
> For example, printed metal products sometimes contain holes and some
> products
> require an accuracy that 3D printers cannot deliver yet. According to
> Kannekens it
> will take quite some time to close this accuracy gap. “It took 3D printers
> ten years to
> raise the accuracy by a factor five, so you can imagine that increasing
> the accuracy
> by a factor ten, as needed to serve companies like ASML, will also take
> many years.”
>
> Automated milling machines and automated manufacturing systems have been
> around for awhile and I think can fill in the gaps of 3d printing.
> https://madisoncollege.edu/program/automated-manufacturing-systems-
> technology
>
> http://wiki.p2pfoundation.net/Cube_Spawn is a potential P2P-appropriate
> example.
>
> On Fri, Oct 6, 2017 at 7:52 AM, Sharon Ede <sharonede.au at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> Yes. And governments are merrily planning for export-led economic
>> development in a world that will no longer exist...
>>
>> On 6 October 2017 at 23:08, Michel Bauwens <michelsub2004 at gmail.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>>> this is quite an explosive report in my view:
>>>
>>>
>>>  3D printing a threat to global trade.pdf
>>> <https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B8ojYwSnwORKUzhZZ3piT2M1ZlE/view?usp=drive_web>
>>> ​
>>>
>>> Executive summary  3D printing is still in its infancy. For now it has
>>> very little effect on cross-border trade.  This will change once high
>>> speed 3D printing makes mass production with 3D printers economically
>>> viable. The first technical steps have already been taken.  3D printing
>>> will lead to less trade growth because 3D printers use far less labour,
>>> reducing the need to import intermediate and final goods from low wage
>>> countries.  It is tricky to define the exact potential of 3D printing, but
>>> some experts expect a share of 50% in manufacturing over the next two
>>> decades. Tentative calculations show that, if the current growth of
>>> investment in 3D printers continues, 50% of manufactured goods will be
>>> printed in 2060 in scenario I, with this figure possibly being achieved as
>>> early as 2040 in scenario II in which investment doubles every five years.
>>>  This is estimated to wipe out almost one quarter of world trade by 2060
>>> under scenario I (or two-fifths by 2040 under scenario II).  Automotive,
>>> industrial machinery and consumer products are the industries that, as a
>>> result of 3D printing, will take the lead in suppressing cross border trade
>>> These industries are top investors in 3D printers and are large players in
>>> world trade.  In automotive, the dominant bilateral trade flows are
>>> exports from Mexico, Japan, Germany and Canada to the US. So these flows
>>> will be most affected by 3D printing.  Locally printed car parts will
>>> increase jobs at US-based automotive factories.  In industrial machinery
>>> and consumer products, the largest bilateral export flows also have the US
>>> as their main destination. China is the main origin country.  The
>>> direction of flows in the most important 3D printing industries will lower
>>> US trade deficits with Mexico and Germany (automotive) and China (machines,
>>> consumer products), all large contributors to the US trade deficit.  Less
>>> trade means that countries with trade deficits in manufacturing will see
>>> deficits decline. This will be more pronounced for countries that import
>>> relatively many products from leading industries in 3D printing. Countries
>>> with a surplus in manufacturing trade will see their surpluses shrink,
>>> especially if they currently export many products that will be 3D printed
>>> in the near future
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> .
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> --
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>>>
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>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>
>


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