[P2P-F] European Commission in panic over new Brexit poll.

[Michel Bauwens]

via christopher quigley

In 17 days time, on the 23rd. of June, Britain goes to the polls to decide
whether to stay in the European Union or not. Should Great Britain opt to
leave it will send financial and political shock waves around the world.
Many believe a win for the leave faction would put Europe’s stressed
banking system under such pressure that a “Lehman Brothers type event”
could occur, the main candidate being Deutsche Bank with its 75 trillion
derivative exposure. Thus June 2016 could turn out to be one of the most
volatile trading months in financial history. Last week the Guardian
Newspaper in London reported that for the first time the leave campaign had
moved into the lead in a “poll of polls”. This news sent the European
Commission into a blind panic and a secret meeting was called at the
highest level to set in place plans to deal with England’s potential exit.
Up until now the Commission refused to admit it had any such strategy in
place, as they believed such a “statement” would add credibility to the
leave camp. This is what Daniel Boffey of the Observer had to say this
Sunday: Opinium survey suggests remain camp has lost four points in two
weeks, as Boris Johnson (Mayor of London) prepares to campaign on
immigration and security. The leave campaign has picked up momentum and
taken a three-point lead over remain in the latest Observer/Opinium poll on
the EU referendum. The Brexiters now stand on 43%, while 40% say they
support the campaign to keep the UK in the union. The potential in the
leave campaign’s strategy is reflected in responses suggesting that two in
five voters (41%) cite immigration as one of their two most important
issues when deciding how to vote. Just over a third (35%) cite Britain’s
ability to make its own laws without EU interference and 29% cite the
impact of leaving on the UK economy. Half of the 2,007 people surveyed said
they believed immigration would be under better control if the UK did leave
the EU. Twelve percent felt the UK would have more control if the country
retained its EU membership, and 24% said there would be little difference.
Johnson is expected to launch a campaign to highlight the security dangers
of EU membership, including the possibility of Turkey’s accession to the
EU, this weekend. However, the leave campaign also believes that, if it can
keep the headline polls close, a relatively poor turnout among Labour
voters who support remain could deliver it victory. The findings came as
Johnson, who has been posing increasingly as a prime minister in waiting,
told the Observer that he believed no genuine “liberal internationalist”
could support the EU. The former mayor of London joined forces with Gove,
the justice secretary, to suggest that a vote for Brexit could deliver
improved social justice. He added: “The impact of EU-enforced uncontrolled
immigration to the UK – made worse by the euro crisis – has been to depress
the wages of the low-paid, while fat cat FTSE-100 chiefs have seen their
pay packets soar to 150 times the average pay of their workforce. It is
time that liberals everywhere saw the EU for what it is: essentially a
stitch-up between the very biggest corporations, their lobbyists and the
commission to frame regulation in such a way as to keep out the
competition, especially … from start-ups and innovators.” The poll by
Opinium also issued a different set of figures using an alternative
methodology to try to reflect the fact that online samples are sometimes
seen to over-represent socially conservative respondents, who may be more
likely to favour Brexit. With the adjustments to the make-up of the sample
surveyed, remain keeps its lead. Opinium found that 43% of UK adults said
they would vote to remain in the EU in a referendum, while 41% would vote
to leave the EU and 14% don’t know how they would vote. Generally the polls
show an electorate split by social class, region and party political
affiliation. The more affluent favour staying in the EU, while older people
are typically more likely to back Brexit. London is a stronghold of the
remain camp, while the East Midlands tends toward leaving. Areas such as
north-west England are more evenly poised. Nearly half (48%) say Cameron
should resign if Brexit occurs, 32% that he should not. Remain v

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