[PeDAGoG] A piece on the physical limits to infinite economic growth

Mon Jun 21 19:31:50 CEST 2021

Hi Naga, 
Chirag and I are currently reading that IEA report! 
Your questions are very important. I don't have the background to answer the first one (about how constraints on supply would affect price) and appeal to economists in the group. The second one - are you talking about so-called transition energy infrastructure like natural gas? That is very much worth discussing and relevant to the work we hope to do next. Your third question with regard to the rate of economic growth as material constraints kick in - the implication of our argument is that since we can't violate physical law, economic growth is eventually going to stop, likely catastrophically if no change away from the current economic model happens anytime soon. As to your fourth point, yes, Covid has shown how disaster capitalism can function at a large scale. I wish I had the answer to that question as to how we might stop/prevent the 'hegemonising' (if that's a word) nature of global neoliberal capitalism. It's a system that works to ensure its own survival, but parasitically, and will eventually destroy us all. We need friction as well as unraveling from within and without. But I speak as a non-expert on this subject - more wishful thinking than anything solid! It would be great to have a TACC-led discussion on all this, if people are willing, since we have so many experts, scholars and activists among all these groups. 
Your point about the flattening of resource use makes total sense. The flatline represents a balance between human needs and the ecological/physical/ biogeochemical 'ceiling' so its height is determined by that. If that wasn't the case, it wouldn't stay flatlined for long - it would eventually drop when resources run out. 
Thanks for raising these points! I am sure Chirag can add more. 
Vandana 

----- Original Message -----

From: "Nagraj Adve" <nagraj.adve at gmail.com> 
To: "Teachers Against Climate Crisis" <teachersacc at googlegroups.com> 
Cc: "vikalp-sangam-list" <vikalp-sangam-list at googlegroups.com>, "PeDAGoG: Post-Development Academic-Activist Global Group" <gta-pedagog at lists.ourproject.org>, "The Third Curve - Sajai Jose" <sajaijose.poi at gmail.com> 
Sent: Monday, June 21, 2021 3:43:45 AM 
Subject: Re: A piece on the physical limits to infinite economic growth 

Dear Chirag and Vandana, 
Very good essay ... raises a range of crucial questions. I loved the opening gambit 'If EVs are the answer, what is the question?' 
Last week, the International Energy Agency (IEA) came out with a relevant report on Critical minerals in the clean energy transition, including issues of production and supply. Very much in keeping with the arguments in your essay, they say 'If we slightly extend the time horizon, we see ample reasons to be vigilant about the ability of supply to meet demand' [so as to not clog inboxes, I will email it to you separately if you have not seen it]. 
Four issues come to mind, given the varied constraints you have so elegantly presented in the essay - one, what a supply constraint would do to price, its rise immediately affecting levels of production; 
two, related to price, a sporadic slowing down or speeding up of energy transient infrastructure and commodities, with attendant largely negative implications for climate change and related ecological crises; 
three, in the longer term, implications for the rate of economic growth as different material constraints kick in 
The fourth is more a concern: what it might imply for working people and the poor. Both the 2009 financial crises and the 2020-2021? COVID induced crises has shown the capacity of elites to shove its worst effect unequally on the underprivileged people and nations .. 
Finally, a minor point: your graph c) on sustainability: would flatlined resource use be sustainable if it plateaus at a very high level? Over time, it could - depending on the resource availability - easily overtake stocks, and is hence not sustainable? 
Thanks again for a rich essay. 
very warmly, 
Naga 

On Mon, 21 Jun 2021 at 11:54, Dr N. Raghuram < nandula.raghuram at gmail.com > wrote: 

Dear Vandana and Chirag, 

I agree with Prabhu that it is an extremely well written piece with concise arguments on the futility of chasing the mirage of limitless growth with sustainability. 

Best wishes, 
Raghuram 

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Prof. N. Raghuram, Ph.D . 
School of Biotechnology, GGS Indraprastha University , 
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Emails: raghuram98 at hotmail.com , raghuram at ipu.ac.in 
web: http://www.ipu.ac.in/usbt/btraghumain.php 
Phones: (91-11) 2530 2308 
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Editor-in-Chief, Physiology and Molecular Biology of Plants 
SC Member, UNEP Global Partnership on Nutrient Management 
Co-Investigator, UKRI-GCRF South Asian Nitrogen Hub 
Trustee, SIT , President, SCON , Vice President, PHSSFSS 

On Sun, Jun 20, 2021 at 11:47 PM < singhvan at rcn.com > wrote: 

<blockquote>

Dear All, 

You may be interested in this Opinion piece from climate physicist Chirag Dhara and myself that came out today in Scientific American. 

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-delusion-of-infinite-economic-growth/ 

For those interested in this subject in the educational context, you may want to look at our chapter for a forthcoming publication from UNESCO on Climate Education. Free download from the site below. 
https://arxiv.org/abs/2101.07467 
"The Elephant in the Room: Why Transformative Education Must Address the Problem of Endless Exponential Economic Growth." 

Please feel free to circulate. Many thanks! 
Best, 

Vandana 

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