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<!--But Hanage says seasonal changes in temperature and higher immunity cannot fully explain why cases are falling at roughly the same speed in every region. "Everywhere has its own pandemic story," says Hanage "But if you ask me what's more likely, I'd say it's probably the human mixing component because the weather is still pretty bad in large parts of the country."
New daily infections have dropped about by 82% on average over the last six weeks in the West, around 73% in the Midwest, 68% in the South and 61% in the Northeast, according to NPR's analysis of Johns Hopkins coronavirus data. Danger ahead?
Despite the progress in slowing infections, public health researchers still see risky days before us. A familiar pattern throughout the pandemic is that mask wearing and social distancing improve when the situation gets most dire, only to fall off again when news improves, warns Ali Mokdad of IHME. "We are always on this rollercoaster," he says. "The question is ? will Americans behave the same way as the cases are coming down because they behaved well when the cases were going up?"
Mask wearing remains above 75% nationwide in February, but mobility is already gradually trending upwards, according to IHME's latest analysis. And cases remain much higher than they were during the summer peak, as do hospitalizations for COVID-19. According to IHME's modeling, the most likely scenario is that infections will continue to steadily trend down, dropping to around 35,000 new daily infections by May. IHME's more pessimistic prediction is that the coronavirus variants spread rapidly and a new wave of infections picks up in March, leading to a new, small peak of about 126,000 new daily cases by April.---->
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<!--Even though the numbers have been decreasing, there are several things that could very quickly send the cases soaring again," says Shah at Emory. "This is not the time to get complacent."
Some states are already doing away with face mask mandates and limits on indoor gatherings. It could be a perilous move as new, more contagious variants of the virus emerge in dozens of states, foreshadowing what could be a breakneck rebound in cases as was seen in European countries like the U.K. and Denmark. "We thought we were up against a constant foe," says the University of Florida's Natalie Dean. "It will depend upon which variants we see spreading the most. I really don't think about them as equal, and we may take a bigger hit with certain types."
FDA Aims To Be 'Nimble' On COVID-19 Vaccine Changes For Variants
SHOTS - HEALTH NEWS
FDA Aims To Be 'Nimble' On COVID-19 Vaccine Changes For Variants
The variant first identified in the U.K. ? what Dr. Anthony Fauci predicts will be the dominant form of the coronavirus by late March ? can be handled with the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, according to available data. Other strains initially identified in South Africa and Brazil have drugmakers and the federal government hurriedly researching how to alter the available vaccines to keep up with mutations that could render them less effective. "These new variants seem to be possibly 20% to 30% more transmissible," says Shah. "When you multiply that over several cycles of transmission, it can lead to exponential increase in the number of cases very quickly."---->
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