i agree, it's going to be more than just 3d printing, nevertheless, this report is really grist to our mill in terms of the legitimacy and realism of cosmo-local production, Michel On Fri, Oct 6, 2017 at 8:13 PM, Bob Haugen <[email protected]> wrote:

I don't doubt that more-automated local production is coming, but I wonder if 3d printing is too narrow a focus. For example,

Quality of 3D printed products falls short in some cases (Reeves and Mendis, 2015). For example, printed metal products sometimes contain holes and some products require an accuracy that 3D printers cannot deliver yet. According to Kannekens it will take quite some time to close this accuracy gap. “It took 3D printers ten years to raise the accuracy by a factor five, so you can imagine that increasing the accuracy by a factor ten, as needed to serve companies like ASML, will also take many years.”

Automated milling machines and automated manufacturing systems have been around for awhile and I think can fill in the gaps of 3d printing. https://madisoncollege.edu/program/automated-manufacturing-systems- technology

http://wiki.p2pfoundation.net/Cube_Spawn is a potential P2P-appropriate example.

On Fri, Oct 6, 2017 at 7:52 AM, Sharon Ede <[email protected]> wrote:

...

Yes. And governments are merrily planning for export-led economic development in a world that will no longer exist...

On 6 October 2017 at 23:08, Michel Bauwens <[email protected]> wrote:

...

this is quite an explosive report in my view:

3D printing a threat to global trade.pdf <https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B8ojYwSnwORKUzhZZ3piT2M1ZlE/view?usp=drive_web> ​

Executive summary  3D printing is still in its infancy. For now it has very little effect on cross-border trade.  This will change once high speed 3D printing makes mass production with 3D printers economically viable. The first technical steps have already been taken.  3D printing will lead to less trade growth because 3D printers use far less labour, reducing the need to import intermediate and final goods from low wage countries.  It is tricky to define the exact potential of 3D printing, but some experts expect a share of 50% in manufacturing over the next two decades. Tentative calculations show that, if the current growth of investment in 3D printers continues, 50% of manufactured goods will be printed in 2060 in scenario I, with this figure possibly being achieved as early as 2040 in scenario II in which investment doubles every five years.  This is estimated to wipe out almost one quarter of world trade by 2060 under scenario I (or two-fifths by 2040 under scenario II).  Automotive, industrial machinery and consumer products are the industries that, as a result of 3D printing, will take the lead in suppressing cross border trade These industries are top investors in 3D printers and are large players in world trade.  In automotive, the dominant bilateral trade flows are exports from Mexico, Japan, Germany and Canada to the US. So these flows will be most affected by 3D printing.  Locally printed car parts will increase jobs at US-based automotive factories.  In industrial machinery and consumer products, the largest bilateral export flows also have the US as their main destination. China is the main origin country.  The direction of flows in the most important 3D printing industries will lower US trade deficits with Mexico and Germany (automotive) and China (machines, consumer products), all large contributors to the US trade deficit.  Less trade means that countries with trade deficits in manufacturing will see deficits decline. This will be more pronounced for countries that import relatively many products from leading industries in 3D printing. Countries with a surplus in manufacturing trade will see their surpluses shrink, especially if they currently export many products that will be 3D printed in the near future

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