---------- Forwarded message --------- From: r kanth <[email protected]> Date: Fri, Sep 21, 2018 at 5:05 AM Subject: FROM RAJANI: INTERVIEW WITH MCPHERSON, RESENT TO CORRECT OMISSION To: Michel Bauwens <[email protected]> *IDEAS FOR OUR TIMES *(4) *On Imminent Human Extinction* *An Interview with Dr Guy McPherson* * This is the Fourth in a series of interviews exploring New Ideas that may, * * perhaps, serve as salves for our troubled times**.* [*Interviewed by Professor Rajani Kanth]* **the italicised emphases* *are the Interviewer’s* *1. **Please explain the environmental threat to human existence you perceive that has brought you much notoriety in recent times.* First, a little perspective. As with all other species in planetary history, except the few remaining, our species will go extinct. We are in the midst of the Sixth Mass Extinction. As with the five prior such events, most species on Earth will be driven to extinction in a relatively short period of time. The post-Permian mass extinction caused the extinction of more than 90% of the species on Earth about 252 million years ago. It was the worst of the prior mass extinction events. As with all five of the prior mass extinction events, Earth’s recovery required several million years to become vibrant, verdant, and characterized by an abundance of multicellular organisms. The current event is underlain by atmospheric carbon emissions about 10 times faster than those during the post-Permian event. It is no surprise that the ongoing Sixth Mass Extinction is proceeding an order of magnitude faster the post-Permian mass extinction. According to an August 2010 report from the United Nations, an estimated 150-200 species are driven to extinction every day. The actual figure exceeds 200 species daily during the last few years. In my case, the notoriety comes from my prediction that *Homo sapiens* will go extinct by 2026. Thus will we join the six other species within the genus *Homo* that have already gone extinct. *Specifically, I predict that there will be no humans on Earth by 2026* , based on projections of near-term planetary temperature rise and the demise of myriad species that support our own existence. *2. **How does that differ from more mainstream views of climate change extant today?* My view differs from the conventional, conservative view only with respect to *timing.* Every conservation biologist knows our species will join others in extinction when we lose habitat that supports our species. Yet, doubtless due to a combination of personal and professional reasons, few other scientists are willing to connect the dots leading to our imminent demise. Among the personal reasons are parenthood. Amongst the professional reasons are the loss of support for one’s privileged position. *3. **How, and when, and why, did you come to believe in this thesis?* My lifelong pursuit of evidence, combined with my knowledge of conservation biology, lead me to believe we face extinction in the near future. Conservation biology rests on the pillars of speciation (when and with what predecessors a species comes into existence), extinction (when the last member of a species dies), and habitat (the many factors necessary to support the populations of a species, including clean air, potable water, healthy food, and the means to maintain body temperature within a narrow range). As with other species, human animals depend upon* habitat* for our survival. More than 15 years ago, I reached the conclusion that the last member of*Homo sapiens* would die by 2030. I was co-editing a book about climate change at the time, and the evidence overwhelmed me. The conclusion was so disconcerting, I did not write or talk about the subject for a few years. Less than two years after reaching the conclusion about near-term human extinction, I discovered the “hail Mary” pass that I believed would ward off extinction for a few more generations: global peak oil, or net energy decline. Alas, passing the global peak for conventional oil in 2005 or 2006 did not cause the collapse necessary to turn off the heat engine of civilization. And our contemporary knowledge of global dimming, reported in the journal literature only since December 2011, indicates that collapse will actually accelerate human extinction relative to maintaining the omnicidal heat engine of civilization. More than a decade ago, I began speaking publicly about human extinction. For a few years, I adhered to the conventional notion that our species will go extinct in about 100 years. As evidence accumulated, I shifted the timeline back to 2050, 2035, 2030, and ultimately 2025 for human extinction. Our species will lose global habitat before 2025, thus marking the point of functional extinction. A few members of our species will persist beyond this loss of habitat for a few years, and the final members of*Homo sapiens* will die lonely, hungry, thirsty, and confused. *4. **What scientific evidence, either from your own research or from others, have you drawn this conclusion from (in layman’s terms if possible)?* I routinely describe *two paradoxes*, and the fact that we are in the midst of the Sixth Mass Extinction. First , the paradoxes. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded in their vaunted fifth assessment that nearly all scenarios between now and 2100 require large-scale sequestration and storage of atmospheric carbon dioxide. This “geoengineering” must be accomplished at a tremendous scale if we are to survive. There is no known technology by which such an effort can be conducted, as pointed out by the National Academy of Sciences of the United States and a European body of similar stature. In short, fantasy technology is required. The second paradox combines our knowledge of greenhouse gases and the aerosol masking effect (aka global dimming). As indicated by the Laws of Thermodynamics, civilization is a heat engine, even if civilization is underlain by “renewable” technology. Yet, turning off the heat engine of civilization heats the planet even faster as a result of the aerosol masking effect. Industrial activity pours particulates into the atmosphere, and these particulates – notably sulfates produced by burning coal – act as an “umbrella” to keep incoming sunlight from striking the surface of the planet. These particulates are constantly falling out of the atmosphere, and industrial activity is constantly adding them. While the greenhouse gases produced by industrialization are acting as “blankets” to hold in the heat, the particulates produced by industrialization are acting as “umbrellas” to keep the heat from striking Earth. *Damned if we do, and damned if we don’t,* civilization is simultaneously destroying most life on Earth while also serving as a shield to protect most life on Earth. The abrupt rise in temperature resulting from the near-term demise of industrial civilization will proceed too rapidly for most species to “keep up” with the rate of change. The plants that feed us cannot move. We cannot move them fast enough, and they depend upon unique environmental conditions (e.g., temperature and precipitation regime, extant soil, co-dependent species). As if two paradoxes are not enough, we are in the midst of the Sixth Mass Extinction on Earth. Destroying habitat for the species that keep us alive will cause our extinction, too. The ongoing loss of habitat for human animals will accelerate, thus leading to our near-term demise. I have provided supporting details within a long essay at Nature Bats Last ( https://guymcpherson.com/climate-chaos/climate-change-summary-and-update/). This long essay barely mentions the likelihood and consequences of an ice-free Arctic Ocean. As Finland’s President Niinistö has been pointing out for more than a year, an ice-free Arctic will lead quickly to loss of habitat for humans on Earth (e.g., http://finlandtoday.fi/president-niinisto-in-north-russia-if-we-lose-the-arc...). The near-term blue-ocean event was projected to occur in 2016 *+* 3 years by a paper in the 2012 edition of*Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences*( https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/suppl/10.1146/annurev-earth-042711-105345 ). *5. **If so, how is it that most of your fellow-scientists have missed what is so ap* -- P2P Foundation: http://p2pfoundation.net - http://blog.p2pfoundation.net Connect: http://p2pfoundation.ning.com; Discuss: http://lists.ourproject.org/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/p2p-foundation Updates: http://del.icio.us/mbauwens; http://friendfeed.com/mbauwens; http://twitter.com/mbauwens; http://www.facebook.com/mbauwens