February 22, 2011 

Cockatoo Chronicles <http://paulgilding.com/view/cockatoo-chronicles> 

Why didn't more of us see it coming? After all, the signals have been clear
enough - signals that the ecological system that supports human society is
hitting its limits, groaning under the strain of an economy simply too big
for the planet. But we didn't and, as a result, the time to act
preventatively has past.

Now we must brace for impact. Now comes The Great Disruption.

It is true that the coming years won't be pleasant, as our society and
economy hits the wall and then realigns around what was always an obvious
reality: You cannot have infinite growth on a finite planet. Not 'should
not', or 'better not', but cannot.

We can, however, get through what's ahead - if we prepare. I wrote my
forthcoming book, The Great Disruption, to help us do that. My conclusion in
writing it was this:  not only can we make it through, we can come out the
other side in better shape.

First, though, back to the present. There are countless analyses and metrics
that clearly describe and record what is happening - our children will
surely look back at what we can see now and ask, "What were you thinking?"
One is oil prices, again on the way up, driven by surging demand in the
developing world. Peak oil, long considered a fringe theory, is now widely
acknowledged as inevitable, if not underway.

Leaked US diplomatic cables show evidence that oil reserves have been
overstated, along with German military reports framing the connected
security threat and comments by the UK energy secretary that the risk is
real. No surprises here. Consumption has been outstripping the discovery of
new reserves for a long time and, as production peaks, prices will rise -
probably dramatically - with major economic consequences. Obvious to those
who look.

An even more obvious concern is food. More than anything else, I believe
food will come to define our entry into this period. Food prices, after
hovering around long-term highs for several years,
<http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/04/world/04food.html> are now passing the
extreme peaks of 2008 as climate chaos takes hold.

With our population growing and our diets moving to more energy- and
grain-intensive meat production, supply was already tight. So, when record
heat waves and drought hit Russia, crashing their wheat harvest and leading
to an export ban, the global price response was rapid.

Next was Brazil. Did you hear about the so-called 'one in one hundred-year'
drought in 2005 in the Amazon? Well there was another one in 2010, but this
time worse. It appears that the Amazon, last year, was a dramatic net
emitter of greenhouse gases rather than an absorber. Strange days indeed.

But actually not that strange, and certainly not surprising - you increase
the thickness of the earth's blanket and it gets warmer. Despite the wishful
thinking of some, the global climate is behaving as the climate models
forecast it would - a bit worse than expected but broadly in line. Indeed,
2010 tied with 2005 as the hottest year on record and, by year's end, the
sea temperature off Australia was the warmest ever recorded.

With warm oceans releasing more water vapour, we saw floods of biblical
proportions hit the agricultural regions of Queensland, killing 22 people
and impacting an area larger than France and Germany. The floods were
quickly followed by one of the most intense cyclone ever to hit Queensland.
Not good for food supplies, so expect prices to keep rising, especially
considering that this was not a localised problem. Climate chaos is now
worldwide, with an unprecedented 19 countries
<http://climateprogress.org/2010/12/23/the-year-of-living-dangerously-master
s-weather-extremes-climate-
change/> breaking temperature records in 2010.

Think that was just a bad year? Think again. Writing at Salon.com, Andrew
Leonard
<http://www.salon.com/technology/how_the_world_works/2011/02/09/armageddon_a
gain/index.html> argued recently that this may all come to a head in China.
He quotes the UN, who've just warned that a severe drought is "threatening
the wheat crop in China, the world's largest wheat producer, and resulting
in shortages of drinking water for people and livestock." According to
<http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/china/2011-02/08/c_13722789.htm> a
Xinhua report, if serious rain doesn't fall by the end of this month, the
key grain producing region of Shandong will face its worst drought in 200
years. Of course, 200 years ago they didn't have 1.3 billion mouths to feed.
Imagine China facing a food shortage and, with plenty of money in the bank,
going on a global shopping spree to feed itself. This,
<http://www.trust.org/alertnet/news/rising-food-prices-may-be-climate-call-t
o-action-author-says> argues food expert Lester Brown, could be China in
2011. Enjoy your daily bread while you can still afford it.

Maybe it will rain there again soon - but next time? People are starting to
understand that this type of thing is not a one off. Commenting on rising
food prices, Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman
<http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/07/opinion/07krugman.html?> wrote in The New
York Times recently: "The evidence does, in fact, suggest that what we're
getting now is a first taste of the disruption, economic and political, that
we'll face in a warming world. And given our failure to act on greenhouse
gases, there will be much more, and much worse, to come."

But don't panic. We will wake up soon. Not because the ecosystem is showing
signs of major breakdown. Not because people are drowning. No, we will wake
up because something much more important to us is now clearly threatened.
When you try to create infinite growth on a finite planet, only two things
can change: Either the planet gets bigger, which seems unlikely, or the
economy stops growing. It's the end of economic growth that will really get
our attention.

There is surprisingly good news in all of this. We as humans have long been
very good in a crisis. We ignore our health issues until the heart attack;
our unwise lifestyle choices until the cancer diagnosis. We ignore our badly
designed financial system until the economic crisis; or the threat of Hitler
until the brink of war. Again and again, we respond to problems late, but
dramatically - and, crucially, effectively. Slow, but not stupid.

This is a good attribute, given what's coming. We're going to have to
transform our economy very rapidly, including our energy, transport and
agricultural systems. This transition - to a zero net CO2 economy - will
soon be underway and the business and economic opportunities for those who
are ready (and risks to those who aren't) are hard to overstate.

That's why China is getting ready to win this race, with significantly more
impressive programs to capture the opportunity than most Western countries.
They understand that in the new world that is unfolding, being a 'solar
power' will define geopolitical strength. Maybe the United States will start
late, but strongly, surging out of Silicon Valley with a technology boom
ready to disrupt and reinvigorate the world again. Time will tell - and
probably sooner than you think.

There's much more to this than technology, though, with some exciting
cultural and political challenges ahead as well. In a growth-constrained
world, our current central economic policy of 'keep calm and carry on
shopping' is looking increasingly wrongheaded. It's certainly insufficient
for continued human development. (More good news there, however, because all
the research suggests that shopping, or more specifically accruing more
money and more stuff, is a very poor way to increase your happiness, once
you're out of absolute poverty.)

In response to the now inevitable crisis, we will demand our governments
think more deeply. We will have to adopt policies known to improve quality
of life, like encouraging community, social inclusion and - the most
heretical idea of all - greater equality and a  <http://steadystate.org/>
steady state economy. Interesting times indeed.

Taking all this together, we can now say with a high degree of certainty
that change is going to start coming thick and fast. Change in our economy,
in our politics, and in our lives. Change that will be challenging, but that
will ultimately lead us to a better place.

So get ready for the ride. The Great Disruption is now underway.


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