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2.1 Sov Unon 1958 Tyb Islan m-ar collson Formaon of Scolan an h Un Kngom Th gap narrow afr h rlas of h Scosh govrnmn wh papr on npnnc: an avrag of 5 polls n Dcmbr 2013 an January 2014 gav 39% ys an 61% no, onc 'on' knows' ha bn xclu.375 Th polls ghn furhr afr h Chancllor of h Exchqur, Gorg Osborn, sa n Fbruary ha h UK govrnmn was oppos o a currncy unon; h avrag ys suppor ncras o 43%, onc 'on' knows' ha bn xclu.376 Thr w as ll movmn n h followng monhs, wh h avrag connung o show 43% ys an 57% no (xclung on' knows) n July 2014377 an Augus 2014.378 If Scolan jon a currncy unon wh h UK, som fscal polcy consrans coul b mpos on h Scosh sa.147 Bankng xprs hav sa ha bng h junor parnr n a currncy arrangmn coul amoun o a loss of fscal auonomy for Scolan.167 Dr Angus Armsrong of h Naonal Insu of Economc an Socal Rsarch wro ha h mplc consrans on s conomc polcy woul b mor rsrcv han h xplc ons facs as a mmbr of h UK.168 Salmon sa n Fbruary 2014 ha an npnn Scolan n a currncy unon woul ran ax an spnng powrs.169 Gavn McCron, formr chf conomc avsr o h Scosh Offc, sa ha Scolan's rnon of h poun woul b pragmac nally, bu problmac hrafr f a Scosh govrnmn wsh o mplmn npnn polcs, an h warn ha kpng h poun coul la o h rlocaon of Scosh banks o Lonon.170 Bug Th Ys campagn has argu ha conrol of wlfar polcy woul b a major bnf of npnnc.304 Accorng o h Insu for Fscal Sus, npnnc woul gv h opporuny for mor racal rform, so ha h wlfar sysm br rflcs h vws of h Scosh popl.305 Ys Scolan an puy frs mnsr Ncola Surgon hav sa h xsng wlfar sysm can only b guaran by vong for npnnc.306307 In Spmbr 2013, h Scosh Councl for Volunary Organsaons (SCVO), whch rprsns chars, call for a spara wlfar sysm o b sablsh n Scolan.308 Fuur saus of h Un Kngom n h Europan Unon Vancouvr an Vcora: In May 2014, h UK govrnmn publsh an analyss nfyng a Unon vn of ?1,400 pr yar for ach prson n Scolan, manly u o h hghr lvl of publc spnng unr h Barn formula.186 Th Scosh govrnmn spu hs analyss, sayng ha ach Sco woul b ?1,000 br off pr yar unr npnnc by 2030.186 Thr conomc xprs sa ha boh smas wr possbl, bu hy boh pn on unknown varabls such as h vson of UK govrnmn b, fuur Norh Sa ol rvnus, possbl spnng commmns of an npnn Scolan an fuur proucvy gans.187 Th no-for-prof an non-parsan Wha Scolan Thnks projc has rack poll an survy aa, nclung onln acvy, urng h rfrnum campagn. Th projc s run by ScoCn Socal Rsarch, whch s par of NaCn, Bran's formos npnn socal rsarch agncy.336 Usng aa from h Appl Quanav Mhos Nwork (AQMN) rsarch cnr, h projc publshs h socal ma acvy of h wo man campagns, Ys Scolan an Br Toghr, by monorng hr rspcv Facbook an Twr accouns snc Augus 2013.337 Wha Scolan Thnks publsh a rpor n Fbruary 2014 sang ha h Ys Scolan campagn was ganng mor Facbook lks. Followng h launch of h Wh Papr on 26 Novmbr, h avrag gap bwn h wo Facbook pags grw from abou 8,000 o abou 23,000 by Fbruary 2014. Analyss of h campagns' Twr accouns show h gap bwn h campagns ncras from approxmaly 8,000 n Augus 2013 o 13,804 n Fbruary 2014, n favour of Ys Scolan.337 Th projc publsh a furhr rpor n Jun 2014 sayng ha grar onln acvy for Ys Scolan ha connu.338 Avrsng In h 2010 Draf Bll, h Scosh govrnmn propos ha hr woul b a sgna organsaon campagnng for a 'Ys' vo an a sgna organsaon campagnng for a 'No' vo, boh of whch woul b prm o spn up o ?750,000 on hr campagn an o sn on fr malsho o vry houshol or vor n h rfrnum franchs. Thr was o b no publc funng for campagns. Polcal pars wr ach o b allow o spn ?100,000.13 Ths propos lm on pary spnng was rvs o ?250,000 n 2012.44 Th ovrall urnou of 84.6% was unusually hgh for Scolan - up o h rfrnum, lcons o h Scosh an UK parlamns n h 21s cnury ha urnous of aroun 50-60%.391 Th mos rcn Un Kngom gnral lcon wh a comparabl urnou was n 1950, whn 83.9% vo.392 Th las ballo n h Un Kngom wh a hghr urnou han 84.6% was n January 1910, whn no womn an fwr mn wr allow o vo (.. bfor unvrsal suffrag appl o UK lcons).392 Of h 32 aras, Eas Dunbaronshr ha h hghs urnou a 91.0%, an Glasgow h lows a 75.0%.392 2 Ouln Th Scosh Inpnnc Rfrnum Bll, sng ou h arrangmns for hs rfrnum, was pass by h Scosh Parlamn n Novmbr 2013, followng an agrmn bwn h Scosh an h Un Kngom govrnmns, an was nac as h Scosh Inpnnc Rfrnum Ac 2013. To pass, h npnnc proposal rqur a smpl majory. Wh som xcpons, all Europan Unon (EU) or Commonwalh czns rsn n Scolan ag 16 or ovr coul vo, a oal of almos 4.3 mllon popl. 6 Rfrncs An npnn panl of scnfc an ngnrng xprs wa s commsson by Frank Prss, who was h Scnc Avsor o prsn Carr an h charman of h OSTP, o valua h vnc an rmn h lklhoo ha h vn was a nuclar onaon. Th charman of hs scnc panl slf was Dr. Jack Runa of h Massachuss Insu of Tchnology, an also h formr rcor of h U.S. Dparmn of Dfns's Avanc Rsarch Projcs Agncy. Rporng n h summr of 1980, h panl no ha hr wr som ky ffrncs n h c opcal sgnaur from ha of an acual nuclar xploson, parcularly n h rao of nnss masur by h wo cors on h sall. Th now-classf rpor5 conans als of h masurmns ma by h Vla Hol sall. Srlng fll by almos on cn agans h US ollar n a ay arly n Spmbr 2014, u o an opnon poll showng a swng owars h Ys campagn.319 Th Fnancal Tms rpor a fw ays lar ha Ass managrs, nvsors an pnson savrs ar movng bllons of pouns ou of Scolan bcaus of fars ha Scolan woul lav h UK.320 Th nwspapr also rpor ha 'x clauss' ar bng nsr no commrcal propry conracs n Scolan o allow buyrs o scrap als or rngoa prcs f vors op for npnnc.320